Texas Is Hit Hardest with Loss of Tax Credits

By: TAHP | Friday, September 26, 2025

What's happening: If Congress doesn't act, monthly costs for Texans who buy their own coverage will jump by 115% on average - the steepest increase in the nation.

• Over 1 million Texans would lose coverage, accounting for more than a quarter of all losses nationwide.
• Premiums for over 3 million Texans who rely on tax credits would jump by an average of $2,000 a year.
• The state's uninsured rate would spike from 16% to 20%, erasing years of progress.

Why Texas is hit the hardest: Texas chose a private market approach instead of expanding Medicaid. That means more Texans depend on tax credits to afford private coverage. Entrepreneurs, self-employed workers, and small-business employees who make up half the state's workforce are especially vulnerable.

By the numbers: Without these tax credits, the cost of coverage nearly doubles.

• A 40-year-old in Dallas making $35,000 would see their monthly premium jump from $96 to $197 - a 105% increase
• A family of four in Houston earning $64,000 would pay $2,355 more per year
• A 60-year-old couple in El Paso making $82,800 would pay a staggering $18,335 more annually - a 263% increase

Regional pain points: Rural and South Texas would be hardest hit.

• South Texas: Premiums would soar by 173%.
• East Texas: Rural districts would see increases of 183%.
• Statewide average: Texans would face a 115% jump in costs compared to 75% nationally.

What's next: Texans will start receiving notices of higher costs soon, with sticker shock arriving just in time for November 1 open enrollment.

The bottom line: Extending tax credits is essential to lowering prices, reducing out-of-pocket costs, and protecting hardworking Texans from being priced out of private health coverage.

Go deeper: TAHP recently travelled to DC to share these Texas specific impacts. Check out our presentation and one pager covering the problem.