Post maintains its MY 2026/27 sugar production forecast, down from MY 2025/26, as Post expects El Niño to lower both sugarcane yields and sugar extraction. Below-normal rainfall also threatens new plant cane for MY 2027/28. Post raises its MY 2025/26 export estimate on strong shipments earlier this year and expects exports to fall in MY 2026/27 as production declines. Refined sugar will account for a larger share of exports, as raw sugar faces stronger competition from Brazil and Australia in Indonesia and Malaysia.