A Saudi Mole in San Franciso

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JPMorgan posted a rare earnings miss, the FBI arrested a Saudi mole in OpenAI, smaller PE firms are already bearing the brunt of higher rates, Blackstone's president sees European fiscal strains as worse than US, and BofA is racing to reassure staff after a senior banker exodus.

Mosaic, the deal modeling platform trusted by Apollo, CVC and Evercore has released their most banker-focused update yet: new tools for solving target returns, building football fields, and stress-testing acc/dil models. For bankers navigating complex valuation and transaction modeling, get a firsthand look at Mosaic's latest features.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

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Markets

• US stock indexes closed slightly lower yesterday, weighed down by chip stocks, as traders digested major bank earnings

• Korea's KOSPI sunk 6% for its fifth-straight down day as the AI trade falters

• Shanghai's STAR index is down 33% from its July high

• India software stocks jumped 5.2% in their best day since May 2025

• Top 10 European luxury firms have lost $350B in market cap YTD

• US-China 10Y spread hit a record 352 bps with China bonds set to rally further

  • Yuan is up 4.4% YTD versus dollar

• European gas prices hit their highest in four years

Earnings

• JPMorgan posted a rare Q3 earnings miss as dealmaking and fixed-income trading lose momentum (RT)

• Goldman Sachs smashed Q3 earnings and revenue estimates on the back of strong equities trading and IB fees growth despite a slowdown in M&A; CEO David Solomon denied reports that succession plans are in motion (RT)

• Citigroup beat Q3 earnings and revenue estimates on strong IB, trading, and wealth management results (RT)

• Wells Fargo beat Q3 earnings estimates but fell short on revenue and net interest income as inflationary pressure and rising rates bite despite strong consumer behavior (RT)

• Domino's beat Q3 earnings and revenue estimates on growth due to higher order volumes, food basket pricing to stores, and global franchise royalties, though sales growth continued to slow (WSJ)

• J&J beat Q3 earnings and revenue estimates and raised its FY guidance though shares fell due to softer growth in its medtech unit and litigation charges (WSJ)

• What we're watching this week:

  • Today: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, ASML

  • Thursday: TSMC

• Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

• Jon Ossoff pledged to serve a full six-year Senate term and not run for president in 2028. There's no way the Democrats will actually run AOC. That would be more dramatic than 2016

• Get a $25 bonus with code LIT on signup, only on the Polymarket US app

Headline Roundup

• Wall Street banks see deals slow on market jitters but pipeline is strong (RT)

• Wall Street plays down investor fears of faltering trading boom (FT)

• Investors brave US Treasury rout to lock in highest yields in decades (FT)

• Smaller PE firms begin hurting as higher rates arrive (WSJ)

• Blackstone president says European fiscal strains outweigh US risk (BBG)

• Asian investors are piling into hedge funds (RT)

• Cracks grow across the AI trade as memory stocks tumble (BBG)

• BofA shares ambitions and hiring plans to reassure staff after senior banker exodus (RT)

• Barclays will reenter India ECM after a decade amid the IPO boom (BBG)

• Space investment is set to top $100B this year after SpaceX IPO (BBG)

• Biotech startups turn to reverse mergers to fast-track listings (FT)

• China faces uphill battle to wean tech firms off Nvidia chips (FT)

• FBI arrests Saudi OpenAI employee for spying on firm (CNBC)

• Google finally released Gemini 4 Argon (TV)

• Apple unveiled $299 HomeView Hub in new smart home push (WSJ)

• F1 will return to Africa with Rwanda race in 2030s (ESPN)

• Houthi terrorists attacked Saudi Aramco's HQ (FT)

• Ex-gang leader sentenced to 40+ years for Tupac Shakur murder (RT)

A Message from Mosaic

Valuation, held to a higher standard

Mosaic has become the modeling platform of choice for investment bankers who value tools that match the rigor, detail and precision of their work. Their latest platform updates bring that same standard to some of the most fundamental valuation and financial modeling workflows.

• Solve for a target return. With Reverse LBO, you can now simply specify a target IRR or MOIC and Mosaic solves for the corresponding entry multiple, purchase price, or premium required. Values automatically update as you adjust assumptions, so you always know what valuation your underwriting supports.

• Frame the value. Users can now create comprehensive 'Football Field' valuation summaries to compare DCF, LBO, public comps, and precedent transactions side by side. Add valuation analyses to any completed model, and Mosaic automatically consolidates the results into a single view, making it easy to compare valuation ranges across methodologies.

• Evaluate shareholder impact. Mosaic's popular Accretion/Dilution model now supports implied share price and breakeven synergies sensitivities, so you can test outcomes across any transaction assumption or operating line item you choose.

Every output runs on deterministic, rules-based software, with 100% accuracy in math, logic, linking, and auditing, and exports to Excel with dynamic, auditable formulas.

Their platform is built by former PE and IB professionals who understand the complexities of financial modeling firsthand, ensuring it captures the nuances of real-world modeling workflows.

For bankers and dealmakers who value time AND precision, see what Mosaic can do.

Deal Flow

M&A / Strategic

• London Stock Exchange Group is in talks to acquire global credit platform Octus from PE firm Permira for $3.5B

• Health insurer Humana will replace PE firm WCAS with BlackRock as its partner in a JV that ‌owns 150 senior primary care clinics in a $2.8B deal

• Grupo Televisa and Fintech Holdings agreed to buy AT&T Mexico in a $2B deal

• Activist Ancora Holdings built a stake in $2B UK-listed self-storage company Big Yellow Group and is pushing the firm to explore a sale

• Swiss skincare giant Galderma will buy medical-grade skincare company ZO Skin Health from Blackstone for $1.5B

• Ithaca Holdings, a new investment firm transforming businesses with AI, agreed to LBO dating app Bumble for $1.3B at a 140% premium

• Denmark's Zealand Pharma partnered with Generate Biomedicines to develop new obesity treatments using AI in a $1.2B deal

• Swiss drugmaker Roche entered a licensing agreement ​worth $1.16B with ‌RNA-focused Rona Therapeutics

• Botswana may get a 25% stake in diamond monopoly De Beers as Global Diamond Consortium, a group led by the ex-CEO of De Beers, pursues a $1B acquisition from Anglo American

• Hong Kong conglomerate Jardine Matheson took full control of UK's Gammon Construction by buying peer Balfour Beatty's 50% stake for $330M

• Laboratory solutions giant Agilent Technologies will acquire pathology software ​maker Proscia for $240M cash

• Vaaris Energy acquired Shell Nigeria Gas Group from Shell

• Actress Reese Witherspoon will reacquire her production company Hello Sunshine from Candle Media in partnership with producer Pierre-Antoine Capton's Mediawan

• Nvidia acquired minority stakes in French tech startups Doctolib and Genesis ​AI

• Mexico will approve the merger of low-cost carriers Volaris and Viva Aerobus

• Quant trader Jump Trading acqui-hired Ito Markets, a prop trading startup making markets in compute

VC

• ICON, a global leader in advanced construction technology, raised a $200M Series D co-led by Baillie Gifford and BlackRock

• Suki, a healthcare AI company specializing in ambient clinical intelligence, raised a $90M Series E led by Healthier Capital, Crosslink Capital, and Hercules Capital

• Scuba, the shared context engine for teams and their agents, raised $34M across a pre-seed led by Accel and a seed co-led by IVP and Accel

• Brellium, a behavioral health billing compliance software provider, raised $23M led by Left Lane Capital and First Round Capital

• Causa Prima, an AI agent-to-agent AP/AR startup, raised a $20M seed round led by Base10 Partners

• Switched Source, a developer of grid-enhancing distribution automation technologies, raised over $17M in funding led by Cubit Capital

• Harbor, an enterprise AI agent risk platform provider, raised a $10M seed round led by Base10 Partners, Abstract, and 8VC

• Aatmunn, an industrial intelligence company, raised an $8M growth investment led by Memento Growth Partners

• Cambridge Heavy Industries, a tabletop fusion startup, raised a $6.2M seed round led by Azolla Ventures

• Lightsprint, a YC-backed startup that uses AI agents to turn plain-English requests into reviewable pull requests so non-engineers can propose code changes, raised a $6.1M seed round led by 645 Ventures

Access the complete VC deal flow and data on Fundable

IPOs / Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

• Blackstone-owned data center operator AirTrunk delayed its $1.5B REIT IPO in Singapore until next year

• Jio Platforms, the telecoms unit of Indian conglomerate Reliance Industries, drew $20B in demand for a record $3B-$4B India IPO which could fetch a $110B valuation

• Czech defense company CSG acquired a 9.5% stake in Canadian space robotics and satellite systems maker MDA Space for $435M

• Chinese smartphone maker Transsion raised $390M in a Hong Kong listing priced near the top end of a marketed range

• Johnson & Johnson may spin off, rather than sell, its orthopedics business

• Mining giant Glencore began trading in Australia after a direct listing

SPAC / SPV

• Tech consulting and medical logistics firm Fortune Favor Technology will merge with Quantumsphere Acquisition in a $600M deal

Debt

• Chinese tech giant Tencent raised $5.7B in dollar and offshore yuan bond sales

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

• Creditors to indebted French telecoms group Altice International sued the firm for illegally moving assets worth billions out of the reach of lenders owed $9B

• Chatbot startup Character.AI filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and will ​sell some assets to Disney for $20M as it struggles with lawsuit costs

• Pickleball facility franchisor The Picklr filed for Chapter 11 to reorganize finances

Funds / Secondaries

• IFC and impact firm BlueOrchard raised $300M for a targeted $2B evergreen EM private credit vehicle with an anchor investment from Japanese insurer Tokio Marine

• Italian state-backed investor CDP Venture Capital committed to European deeptech VC Jolt Capital's $1.2B fifth flagship fund

• Nuveen Real Estate raised $700M for its latest Australia CRE credit fund

• Private markets investor Adams Street launched an evergreen VC and growth fund with $363M

• Restaurant-focused PE firm Savory Fund raised $202M for its third fund

• Balerion Space Ventures raised $200M for its second fund

• Climate investor Finance Earth is seeking to raise $100M for an African nature and carbon investment fund

• PE FOF StepStone hit half its combined target for its sixth flagship and GP-led fund

Crypto Sum Snapshot

• CitSec and BNY completed a blockchain-based financing transaction using tokenized Treasuries as collateral

• Binance scrapped crypto mining pool services

Crypto Sum compiles the most important stories on everything crypto. Read it here.

Exec's Picks

• Tax season is a nightmare, and if you've got non-W2 income (K-1s, carry, a rental) you probably relate. If you're tired of a firm that only reacts, check out OLarry. They offer year-round advisory and filing all for one flat fee. With the tax extension deadline ending tomorrow, now's a good time to get a free consultation.

• Bloomberg published a deep dive on the humanoid robot market and China's early lead in the $5T opportunity.

• WSJ published a super interesting piece on how businesses should respond to positive online reviews.

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.