Homeless Prevention Unit participants 71% less likely to enter a shelter, California Policy Lab at UCLA finds

A new report from the California Policy Lab at UCLA shows promising early results from Los Angeles County's Homelessness Prevention Unit (HPU). The report found that people in the HPU program were 71% less likely to enter a homeless shelter or have contact with street outreach teams within 18 months, compared to similar high-risk people who didn't enroll.

The HPU uses a first-of-its-kind predictive model, developed by the California Policy Lab, to identify L.A. County residents most at risk of homelessness and to connect them with intensive, tailored support, including financial assistance. The CPL at UCLA report evaluated outcomes from a pilot phase (May 2022-February 2023), before the launch of a formal, randomized control trial evaluation which is currently underway. This early analysis compared 335 individuals who enrolled in HPU to 1,285 others who were eligible for the program but did not enroll. During this period, enrollment in the program was associated with improved outcomes related to housing stability, homelessness and other adverse events such as interactions with county services.

"This is what smart homelessness prevention can look like, using predictive modeling and supportive services to act early, not after someone ends up homeless, said co-author Janey Rountree, executive director of the California Policy Lab at UCLA. "We're encouraged by HPU's early results and what they suggest is possible."

Unlike many programs, HPU doesn't wait for people to seek help. It proactively reaches out to those at highest risk, often people who aren't connected to existing services. Case managers carry small caseloads and offer personalized support, including health care, job services and help with essentials like laptops or appliances. In addition, the participants receive an average financial assistance of $6,469 across all households. Budgets vary based on household size.

Proactively reaching out to high-risk individuals and effectively getting people enrolled has proven to be one of the most challenging aspects of the program. During the formal evaluation period, the HPU enrollment rate jumped 67% - from 21% to 35% - after several operational improvements were implemented, including a dedicated outreach team and a standardized case review and discharge process.

"This model helps us reach people before they experience a crisis," said Dana Vanderford, associate director of homelessness prevention for the L.A. County Department of Health Services. "It's a smart, effective, and compassionate way to prevent homelessness."

The HPU program has served 1,498 people to date, and 86% of participants have retained their housing upon completion of the program.

"The early signs from HPU suggest we're on the right track. This is a powerful model for what targeted, data-informed support can achieve in preventing homelessness," said Max Stevens, chief analytics officer at the L.A. County Chief Information Office.

The HPU program is designed with equity in mind, with attention to who is identified, enrolled and ultimately served. In a previous report released in Fall 2024, the California Policy Lab assessed whether the predictive model fairly identified high-risk individuals across different racial, ethnic and gender groups. That analysis did not find evidence of systematic exclusion: most groups had similar false negative rates. The HPU continues to expand access to people who are often disconnected from homelessness prevention services, including those with higher rates of criminal legal involvement, serious mental illness or substance use. To date, 80% of HPU participants are people of color, who face heightened risk of homelessness due to long-standing inequities in housing, employment and the criminal legal system.

Randomized control trial results are anticipated in 2027. The report is available at capolicylab.org.

Launched in 2021, the HPU program is a partnership between the California Policy Lab, the L.A. County Department of Health Services, and the L.A. County Chief Information Office.