SpaceX Steals the Show

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US stocks erased over $1.5T in market value in a massive chip-led selloff on Friday. Also, SpaceX's IPO is already 2x oversubscribed, set to secure a $1.75T valuation. My quant thinks these events are related

Mizuho's head of macro strategy Dominic Konstam shared some insights on the path of Fed rate policy ahead. This time, from the perspective of a new Fed chair and the Iran conflict. Read it here.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

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Markets

• US stock indexes tumbled on Friday in a violent chip stocks selloff

  • S&P snapped a nine-week win streak

  • Nasdaq 100 dropped 4.8% in its worst day since April 2025

  • Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 10% in its worst day since Covid as chip stocks erased $1.3T in value

• Bitcoin fell below $60k for the first time since Trump's 2024 election

Earnings

• What we're watching this week:

  • Wednesday: Oracle, Chewy

  • Thursday: Adobe, Lennar

• Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

• Totally nothing suspicious going on in LA

• Trade event contracts on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market

Headline Roundup

• Evercore intern suffered seizure late-night on day 3 of internship (ES)

• Trump says Netanyahu will have 'no choice' but to accept a deal with Iran (FT)

• US job growth surged with unemployment steady at 4.3% (CNBC)

• Trump says Fed rate increase would be wrong ahead of Warsh debut (BBG)

• Banks lay groundwork for mass workforce cuts as AI takes hold (BBG)

• Market rout leaves Wall Street bracing for rockier times (WSJ)

• Equity L/S hedge funds gained 5.4% in May (RT)

• 75% of LPs plan to increase allocations to US MM PE funds (ALT)

• University endowments boost market risk as financial pressures mount (FT)

• Golden age of private credit is coming to an end (WSJ)

• SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI may wait years to join S&P 500 (BBG)

• Marvell Technology will join the S&P 500 (BBG)

• SpaceX signed a $30B computing power deal with Google (BBG)

• OpenAI plots biggest app overhaul since launch ahead of IPO (FT)

• Reid Hoffman will step down from Microsoft's board (RT)

• Western Asset Management agreed to a $100M settlement with SEC (FT)

A Message from Mizuho

At the start of the year, investors were focused on a familiar set of questions. The timing of rate cuts, a leadership transition at the Federal Reserve, and a shift toward a more forward-looking, growth-oriented framework were expected to define the outlook. Markets were actively debating how aggressive the Fed might be in easing, with expectations tied in part to Kevin Warsh potentially succeeding Jerome Powell.

That narrative has since been disrupted. The escalation of the Iran conflict has pushed energy prices and inflation risk back to the center of the macro conversation. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world's oil and liquified natural gas travels, forced a broad reassessment of the growth outlook and led to a meaningful repricing across global rates markets.

Deal Flow

M&A / Strategic

• US is in talks with OpenAI for a potential government stake

• Italy's Banco BPM proposed a merger of "equals" with peer BMPS to create Italy's second-largest banking group with $60B market value

• A consortium of telecom groups Bouygues Telecom, Iliad, and Orange proposed a $24B acquisition of SFR, the French business of indebted telecoms Altice, for $23.5B, including debt

• Air France-KLM will consider a possible involvement in a bid for $4.8B-listed UK budget airline easyJet if investment firm Castlelake comes with a proposition

• Food ingredients firm Ingredion is in advanced talks to acquire UK peer Tate & Lyle in a $3.6B cash deal at a 60% premium

• Biotech Incyte Pharma is ​nearing a $2B deal acquire ​blood disorder ​drug developer Star Therapeutics

• Apollo ended talks to acquire UK thermal processing services firm Bodycote for $2B cash at a 27% premium

• American's largest personal injury law firm Morgan & Morgan is considering selling an over $1B stake to PE

• Greek gambling firm Bally's Intralot agreed to acquire UK peer Evoke for $326M at a $140% premium

• Norwegian state-owned telecoms giant Telenor is seeking to sell its 55% stake in Pakistani digital bank Easypaisa Bank for several hundred million dollars

• Asian PE firm Hillhouse Investment is close to buying a significant minority stake in UK-based certifications and inspections business LRQA from Goldman Sachs Alternatives

• German insurance giant Allianz is in advanced talks to buy Portuguese insurer Caravela Seguros from UK's Toscafund Asset Management and others

• Australia's Macquarie is in talks to acquire the metals unit of agri-commodities giant Cargill

• Turkey's three state-run Islamic banks Ziraat Katilim, Vakif Katilim, and Halk Katilim will merge

• Botswana is in talks with UAE and Oman to help acquire a 'strategic' stake in diamonds monopoly De Beers from miner

VC

• Data center developer Switch is in talks with Brookfield, KKR, and others to raise billions of dollars ​at an over $50B valuation in a pre-IPO round

• Satellite startup Apex raised an over $200M funding round at a $2.3B valuation

• Allen Control Systems, a defense technology startup focused on autonomous precision weapon systems, raised a $200 million in a Series B at a $2.2B post-money valuation led by Smash Capital

• Auger, a supply chain software startup, raised a $200M Series A led by Oak HC/FT and Insight Partners

• Axiom Space, a commercial space infrastructure and spacesuit developer, raised $525M in an opportunistic extension of a funding round led by Type One Ventures and QIA

• Tilt, a UK real-time live-video commerce platform, raised $26M in funding led by Vinted Ventures

Access the complete VC deal flow and data on Fundable

IPOs / Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

• China and Hong Kong investors were banned from SpaceX's $75B IPO

• SpaceX's IPO is already 2x oversubscribed

• Meta is considering raising tens of billions in a stock offering

• Dajin Heavy Industry, a Chinese maker of wind power equipment, raised $848M in a Hong Kong listing

• India is considering raising $525M in a 2% stake sale in Hindustan Zinc

• Mexican silver miner Sinda files for a US IPO

• German real estate group TAG Immobilien is considering launching a Poland IPO of its Polish unit Robyg

• Turkish state-run Islamic bank Emlak Katilim will IPO

• Philippines' largest fast-food chain Jollibee Foods is considering switching a potential spinoff and listing of its international business from US to Hong Kong

Debt

• Citadel Securities raised $4.7B in an upsized debt sale

• Manchester United is looking to raise $425M in a private placement for a refinancing

• TPG Credit, Oaktree, Oak Hill, and others will lend $1.2B in private credit to back Bally's Intralot's acquisition of Evoke

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

• Raizen, the struggling sugar and ethanol JV between Shell and Brazilian conglomerate Cosan, secured creditor support for $12.5 billion debt deal

Funds / Secondaries

• Nordic PE firm Norvestor raised $2.3B for its tenth flagship fund

• HSBC Asset Management raised $2B for its second UK private credit fund

• Norwegian lower MM PE firm Longship raised $260M for its fourth fund

• German VC Merantix Capital raised $118M for a Europe AI fund

• Wealth management firm Simon Quick Advisors launched a $100M debut PE fund

Crypto Sum Snapshot

• Combined market value of Bitcoin treasury company stocks has fallen by half to $72B

• Trump family's stablecoin wealth fueled by Binance relationship

• Crypto exchange Bybit will open SpaceX tokenized IPO access

• Michael Saylor's Strategy has a $13B unrealized loss on its Bitcoin

Crypto Sum compiles the most important stories on everything crypto. Read it here.

Exec's Picks

• WSJ sat down with NYU Stern professor Aswath Damodaran, aka the 'dean of valuation,' to hear is analysis on what SpaceX is really worth.

  • Speaking of SpaceX's valuation, here's what Barry Ritholtz makes of the Wall Street banks projecting absurd revenue growth for Musk's empire in the years ahead

• Cloudflare's billionaire founder/CEO Matthew Prince shared some stories of his worst encounters with VCs. If you find the name-dropping spicy, you'll love the public beefing with Vinod Khosla and commentary from Marc Andreessen. He's even posting receipts lmao. Check out the best threads here.

Financial Services Recruiting

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We aim to place strong candidates across private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, growth equity, credit, and investment banking.

We're currently seeking talent for some incredible roles. Head over to Litney Partners to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.