Win, lose and draw conclusions: What the 2026 midterm election tells us

By Amelia Heymann

The balance of power shifted dramatically Tuesday as American voters turned sharply away from President Donald Trump and the Republican Party in the midterm elections.

Alex Keena, Ph.D., associate professor of political science at Virginia Commonwealth University, called it "one of the biggest blowouts in modern history."

"This marks the beginning of the end for Trump as a kingmaker in the Republican Party, and it signals the beginning of his lame duck era," he said.

In VCU's College of Humanities and Sciences, Keena and three faculty colleagues in the Department of Political Science - Alexandria Davis, Ph.D.; John Aughenbaugh, Ph.D.; and Jatia Wrighten, Ph.D. - shared their initial thoughts on the election results, which they will explore further on Thursday evening at a panel discussion.

Major shifts

As Democrats reclaimed power in both chambers of Congress and in governorships, including in what have been GOP strongholds, Davis noted how the blue wave swept even into Texas and Kansas, both of which hadn't elected Democratic senators in generations.

Aughenbaugh said the sitting president's party historically loses congressional seats in midterm elections, but the breadth of the results reflected widespread dissatisfaction tied to economic policies, the war in Iran and other factors.

Historic firsts

Wrighten highlighted the influence of Black women in politics, as seen in the historic election of Keisha Lance Bottoms as governor of Georgia - making her the first Black woman to lead a state. Wrighten cited the groundwork laid by Stacey Abrams in her previous competitive run for governor in that state and the subsequent work she did with her organization, Fair Fight, that helped enfranchise voters.

"Black women candidates' success across the country and our strong voter turnout (94%) highlight that we are true patriots and lovers of this country, even when it doesn't love us back," she said.

Other gubernatorial firsts: Deb Haaland of New Mexico will be the first Indigenous governor; California and Texas elected their first Latino and Latina governors, respectively; and Florida, Nevada and Wisconsin elected the first Black governors of their states. And in the Senate, Abdul El-Sayed of Michigan will be the first Muslim senator, while Chris Pappas of New Hampshire will be the first openly gay senator.

"The barriers that Black women break through make it possible for other marginalized groups to run and win -- similar to how the Civil Rights Movement ushered in an era of gaining rights for women, LGBTQ+, and people with disabilities," Wrighten said.

"This is one of the biggest blowouts in modern history."

Republican campaign fumbles

Keena said the midcycle gerrymandering by Republicans failed badly, including by helping Democrats fare better than if congressional district maps had been left alone.

"We can officially call this 'dummymandering,'" he said.

Another Republican error was Trump's endorsements. Keena noted that the president's support for Senate candidates Ken Paxton in Texas and Darline Graham in South Carolina, among others, became liabilities.

"The results were devastating for the GOP," Kenna said, adding that the philosophy of "trust Trump" was clearly not successful.

Keena posed a big question going into the 2028 presidential race: What will the GOP do now that its standard bearer has lost an extraordinary amount of political capital?

Division within the Democratic Party

Davis noted that despite the blue wave, division within the Democratic Party remained pronounced. In the Senate race in Florida, Angie Nixon nearly upset Republican Ashley Moody in a vote that was closer than many expected, though Davis said party support for Nixon was subdued.

"Makes me wonder if it is due to her identifying as a Democratic socialist," Davis said.

Another sign of discord is ongoing debate about support for Israel. It was a flashpoint in the Senate race in Michigan that even saw Haley Stevens, who lost the Democratic nomination to El-Sayed, offer a late-game endorsement of GOP nominee Mike Rogers.

What Democrats can learn

Aughenbaugh said Democrats should learn from the Republican Party's experience Tuesday. Voters frequently judge political parties with how they wield power.

"If the Democratic Party wants to have a prolonged period of controlling elected positions, they need to focus on the issues and policies which led … voters to shift toward the [Democrats] in the last two years," Aughenbaugh said.

He argued that instead of lawsuits and retribution to punish the Trump administration, or a focus on ballrooms and monuments, Democrats could emphasize policies tied to health care affordability, career aspirations for younger generations, and gas and food prices.

"There appears to be a wide swath of voters who do not care much for either political party's extremist bases and their policy preferences, and the [Democrats] need to recognize that moving forward," Aughenbaugh said.