European road freight contract and spot rates rise in tandem

European road freight contract and spot rates reached around 134 points in Q3 2025, according to Upply-Ti-IRU's European Road Freight Rate Development Benchmark Report released today.

Both contract and spot rates rose steadily through Q3 2025.

The rate increases are being driven by multiple factors. On the demand side, retail activity is showing signs of recovery, ahead of the busy holiday season. Manufacturing, while still fragile, saw a brief return to expansion in August with the Eurozone PMI crossing the 50-point threshold for the first time since 2022, although the recovery remains turbulent, as the PMI contracted again in September.

Ti Head of Commercial Development Michael Clover said, "The parallel rise in both contract and spot rates reflects a market that's gradually recovering. Manufacturing is showing tentative signs of stabilisation, while consumer demand is providing a solid foundation for growth. The increase in contract rates is also being fuelled by a bounce back in manufacturing activity. However, the recovery remains fragile and uneven across Europe, with Germany continuing to face challenges, while Spain's economy shows a considerably stronger momentum."

Capacity dynamics continue to shape the market. New registrations for medium-duty and heavy-duty vehicles dropped sharply in Q3 2025, with fewer than 32,000 units recorded, a steep 39% decline from the previous quarter.

In Germany, transport and logistics recorded the highest insolvency rate of any sector in 2024, at 14 per 1,000 VAT-liable companies, which is effectively tightening capacity as smaller operators exit the market.

The cost environment shows mixed signals. While diesel prices declined in Q2 2025, they stabilised in Q3. Tolls have also increased across multiple countries. These cost rises are contributing to upwards pressure on rates, particularly on contract prices.

IRU Senior Director for Strategy and Development Vincent Erard added, "Road freight rates continue to rise and are now outpacing inflation, reflecting the squeeze from structural costs and a more complex and uncertain regulatory landscape. Following national implementation of the latest Eurovignette Directive, tolling has become a major driver of operating expenses across the EU with toll rates per kilometre close to, and sometimes even higher than, fuel prices per kilometre. In this context, fleet renewal can reduce total cost of ownership but requires confidence to deploy capital. A balanced regulatory approach, emphasising clear, positive investment incentives over additional tolls and taxes, is essential to unlock that confidence and accelerate renewal."

Market outlook

The Ti x Upply x IRU European Road Freight Sentiment Index rose 4.5 points to 12.7 in Q3 2025, marking the strongest positive sentiment since late 2023. Most respondents (46.3%) expect a slight increase in rates, while only 14% anticipate a decrease, the lowest share of bearish sentiment in nearly two years.

Upply Chief Executive Officer Thomas Larrieu commented, "Our data shows that the convergence of spot and contract rates points to a gradual rebalancing of the European road freight market after several quarters of adjustment. While this trend reflects improving stability, notable disparities remain across countries and lanes. This growing synchronisation offers greater visibility for both shippers and carriers, but persistent regional volatility shows that the path to full stability in Europe is still underway."