What Could the 2026 Midterms Mean for Congress

Rutgers political scientist Ross Baker explains how a change in congressional control could affect President Trump's agenda and the balance of power in Washington

The November midterm elections will determine which party controls the House and Senate, with potentially significant consequences for the final two years of President Donald Trump's term.

Ross K. Baker, a distinguished professor emeritus of political science at Rutgers, is an expert on Congress and the inner workings of the House and Senate. His research and writing have focused extensively on congressional politics, and he has served as a scholar-in-residence in congressional offices.

Baker discusses what could change after the midterms, how Congress can challenge a president and why even a congressional majority doesn't guarantee legislative success.

Control of Congress is at stake in November. What could change if Democrats win the House, the Senate or both?

The loss of either house to the Democrats would eliminate the possibility of any major legislation coming out of Congress. The most likely to change majorities is the House. That alone would unleash a flood of investigations and make any important initiatives from President Trump's administration unlikely.

What makes the 2026 midterms particularly consequential for President Trump and his remaining two years in office?

Amid an undeclared war and a serious bout of inflation, a change in the majority of either or both houses would be seen as a rejection of the president. This makes important legislative initiatives unlikely. We will see, however, a flood of executive orders, most of which will be challenged in the courts.

With solid Democratic majorities in both chambers any major Trump legislative initiatives would be quite impossible. Even if a Democratic Congress passes legislation, even popular legislation such as lowering health care costs, Trump will certainly veto them. Not even the most optimistic prediction for a two-house Democratic win, however, foresees a veto-proof majority in both houses.

Beyond passing legislation, what powers does Congress have to hold a president and his administration accountable?

Oversight is major tool for Congress. This will probably result in demands for the appearance on Capitol Hill of cabinet members and agency heads. Life will be unpleasant for the most controversial Trump cabinet officials such as Defense Secretary Hegseth, Homeland Security chief Markwaynhe Mullin and the Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Even when one party controls the House, Senate and White House, why can it be so difficult to get legislation passed?

Members of Congress listen to their constituents. If their voters are in economic distress, there can be a bipartisan uprising. The 535 members of the House and Senate want to be re-elected. If the positions of their party leaders are not in accord with those of a member's constituents, they will stand with their voters. Majorities can be a mirage when there is conflict between the members of Congress and the positions taken by their leaders. There is almost no issue in which there aren't some free spirits or dissenters who make legislation difficult even with solid majorities.

Beyond which party wins, what should Americans be watching as the next Congress takes shape?

I'd be looking at how President Trump would respond to an electoral disaster for Congressional Republicans. He is not a conciliator and, in a fit of pique, could veto everything that comes across his desk from a Democratic Congress.