AXA Future Risks Report 2025

The perception of living in a world facing multiple crises became more pronounced in 2025. Nearly all citizens surveyed believe that the number of crises has increased (93%, up 3% from 2024). Among risk experts, this sentiment is even stronger, with 95% acknowledging it, including 60% who strongly agree, an increase of 10 ppts from 2024. Similarly, the belief that these crises are having greater impacts on personal lives is spreading among national populations (93%, with 48% fully agreeing, up 5% from 2024) and risk experts (96%, with 63% fully agreeing, up 8%). Climate change continues to be the most concerning risk, amid strong competition.

The list of the most feared risks for the next 5 to 10 years illustrates that the idea of climate 'fatigue' or 'habituation' is overstated: both populations and experts rank climate change highest (the top position since 2018, except for 2020 during the pandemic). Geopolitical instability follows among risk experts. In Europe, geopolitical instability surpasses climate risk among experts. The diverse ranking of future risks is alarming: technological risks (AI, big data, cyber threats) coexist with environmental risks (biodiversity loss, energy concerns, pollution) and social risks (social tensions, demographic shifts). The fear of a world war remains strong globally, especially in Europe.

Around 84% of the global population fears that geopolitical tensions will escalate worldwide (-3% from 2022, months after the Ukraine war began), persist in the future, and may lead to global conflict (79%, -3%). This fear is particularly high in Europe (80% against 67% in Asian nations), notably in Great Britain (89%), Ireland (87%), and Italy (85%). Risk experts maintain a steady yet slightly pessimistic view, with 84% recognising a significant risk of world war (similar to 2022). Is there any hope? Despite existential fears of 'disappearance', the world continues to choose democracy and freedom of expression.

Despite strong feelings of internal division, the commitment to democracy prevails. Nearly three-quarters of national populations and risk experts affirm that democracy should be upheld, even if decision-making for majority satisfaction takes longer (72% and 76% respectively). 28% overall believe that a more powerful government with reduced democracy is necessary for more efficient decision-making, even if it means lower compromises for majority satisfaction. Likewise, despite fears of fragmentation, nearly seven out of ten people, among both national populations and risk experts, argue that total freedom of expression should be maintained, even if it results in the widespread dissemination of extreme political opinions. Experts and national populations criticise the lack of preparedness of public authorities facing future risks.

When assessing public authorities' readiness for various future risks, experts harshly criticise the situation, particularly regarding strategic risks: for instance, only 12% of experts believe public authorities are ready for climate change (-2% from 2024, 9% in France) or geopolitical instability (16%, -6%, 22% in France). The general public is a bit more forgiving, but among 25 tested risks, only three have a majority of the public considering national authorities as prepared. A minority of respondents see adequate readiness for climate change (32%), social tensions and movements (33%), geopolitical tensions (33%), or AI-related risks (33%).

About the Survey

The Future Risks Survey was conducted by Ipsos for AXA, using online questionnaires with two groups: experts and members of the general population. The survey was conducted from May 14th to June 19th, 2025.

Experts: We surveyed 3,595 experts across 57 countries. 42% of respondents were aged between 45 to 59 years old. 55% were men, 44% women and 1% preferred to self-describe. 82% worked at AXA,1 mainly in risk management. The other 18% were drawn from AXA's professional networks, mainly in the financial services sector.

General Population: We surveyed 23,000 respondents aged 18 or over in 18 countries, representative for age, gender, and occupation. This comprised 5,000 people in the United States, 2,000 in Germany, and 1,000 in each of the United Kingdom, France, Switzerland, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Ireland, Türkiye, Mexico, Brazil, Morocco, Nigeria, Egypt, China, Japan and Hong Kong. A difference in the selection of countries compared to last year (with Türkiye, Egypt, Ireland and Brazil added, and Australia removed) must be taken into account when comparing results.

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