Global Food Security Improves in 2024 With Higher Incomes and Lower Inflation

Food insecurity is an ongoing challenge to millions of people around the world, particularly in lower income countries where consumers spend more of their income on food. Since 2020, a series of events has affected both income and prices. Supply chain bottlenecks began during the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and were exacerbated in 2022 by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, leading to uncertainty around the passage of grain supplies from the Black Sea region. These events led to higher food prices, which meant food was less accessible and available to many people, and a worsening of food insecurity.

In 2023, however, factors affecting food availability and access were projected to improve for the first time since the pandemic's onset. Central bank interest rate increases were associated with the easing of price inflation and slower growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) globally. In 2024, international commodity prices, other than for rice, were projected to continue declining as a result of lower inflation, higher production, and supply chain improvements. As a result, 313.0 million fewer people in the world's most vulnerable countries were projected to be food insecure in 2024, a 27.5-percent decrease from the 2023 estimate. This decrease in food insecurity is associated with projected growth in per capita incomes and lower prices for wheat, corn, and vegetable oils.

USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS) uses the International Food Security Assessment (IFSA) model to assess food security trends in 83 low- and middle-income countries-41 in Sub-Saharan Africa, 8 in the Middle East and North Africa, 11 in Latin America and the Caribbean, 14 in Asia, and 9 in the Former Soviet Union. Using data on food availability, food prices, and per capita income, economists estimate food insecurity for the current year and 10 years out. Per capita food demand estimates are compared to a global nutritional threshold of 2,100 calories per person per day, an average caloric intake necessary to sustain a healthy and active lifestyle, according to the United Nations. The prevalence of food insecurity is determined by the share of people in each country who are unable to afford sufficient calories to meet their dietary needs for an active and healthy life.

Per Capita Incomes Projected To Improve in 2024

In 2024, per capita GDP-a proxy for income-was projected to improve in 80 of the 83 countries studied in the IFSA. On average, per capita GDP growth of 3.4 percent was projected across all IFSA countries, lower than 2023 per capita growth of 3.7 percent but above pandemic-era growth of 3.0 percent between 2021 and 2023.

Income growth varied regionally. From 2023 to 2024, per capita GDP growth estimates in Asia and the Former Soviet Union regions are estimated to be among the highest at rates of 4.7 percent and 5.1 percent, respectively, while Sub-Saharan Africa was estimated to have the lowest growth rate at 1.4 percent during the same period. Only three countries, Angola, Sudan, and Syria, were projected to have lower per capita income in 2024 than in 2023.

Food Price Inflation Eased in 2024

Inflation, severe weather events such as El Niño, and supply chain disruptions related to conflicts in the Black Sea and Red Sea regions contributed to higher prices during 2021−23. USDA estimated that international agricultural commodity prices would decline in 2024, providing relief to global food insecurity. Prices of crop inputs, including fuel, oil, and fertilizer were projected to decrease from their pandemic highs. Wheat, corn, sorghum, and vegetable oils prices also have fallen from pandemic highs and were estimated to continue declining through 2034. However, rice prices were projected to remain elevated in 2024 associated with India's export restrictions.

Although most consumers were likely to face lower domestic food prices in 2024, inflation was estimated to remain above prepandemic levels. In addition, weak currencies were expected to reduce purchasing power for countries that rely on imports, including many countries in the Sub-Saharan Africa region.

Over the next 10 years, global food and feed supply was projected to exceed demand. International agricultural commodity prices were projected to decline and remain relatively stable. Only rice prices were projected to stay above prepandemic levels through 2034 as Sub-Saharan population growth drives high global demand for rice.

Food Security Challenges Persisted in 2024

Food security was estimated to improve in 2024 for most of the 83 countries covered by the IFSA. Average per capita GDP growth of 3.4 percent coupled with the easing of most international and domestic food prices were estimated to contribute to lower food insecurity estimates for 2024. About 28 percent fewer people (313.0 million) in IFSA countries were expected to be food insecure in 2024 than in 2023. Even so, 824.6 million people-19.0 percent-were estimated to lack access to sufficient food needed for a healthy and active lifestyle in 2024.

Estimated levels of food insecurity for 2024 varied regionally. Asia (383.6 million people) and Sub-Saharan Africa (351.4 million people) accounted for 89 percent of the total number of food insecure people in 2024. Latin America and the Caribbean (29.9 million people), Middle East and North Africa (52.8 million people), and Former Soviet Union countries (7.1 million people) accounted for the remaining 11 percent. In 2024, Sub-Saharan Africa was estimated to have the highest estimated share of the population that is food insecure at 29.3 percent, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean (16.6 percent), Asia (15.4 percent), and Middle East and North Africa (14.9 percent). The Former Soviet Union region (6.0 percent), comprised primarily of middle-income countries, was estimated to have the lowest prevalence of food insecurity in 2024.

Food Security Projected to Improve in All IFSA Countries by 2034

Despite facing near-term challenges, food security was projected to improve significantly in the next decade across all assessed countries. This outlook was driven by projected gains in per capita income and lower food prices. By 2034, the number of people facing food insecurity in the 83 IFSA countries was projected to decline by 66.7 percent, dropping to 274.6 million people, or 5.5 percent of the population. This improvement was fueled especially by projected economic growth, particularly in the Former Soviet Union and Asia regions.

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