Information Acquisition and the Finance-Uncertainty Trap

Using novel measures of information acquisition, we document causal evidence of a feedback loop between firms' credit access and information acquisition. To examine the macroeconomic implications of this feedback loop, we develop a tractable general equilibrium framework with financial frictions and endogenous information acquisition. In line with the empirical evidence, the model predicts that a rise in information costs raises the level of uncertainty and reduces a firm's equity value, hampering its credit access. On the other hand, tightened credit constraints restrain activity of high-productivity firms, leading to misallocation that reduces aggregate productivity and firm profits, and discouraging information acquisition. This feedback loop creates a finance-uncertainty trap that substantially amplifies and prolongs business cycle fluctuations.

Suggested citation:

Dong, Ding, Allen Hu, Zhaorui Li, Zheng Liu. 2025. "Information Acquisition and the Finance-Uncertainty Trap." Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2025-12. https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2025-12