Storms Are Changing — Should the Hurricane Scale Change Too

As climate change continues to reshape the intensity and behavior of hurricanes, meteorologists and researchers are examining whether the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, a decades-old classification system, still adequately communicates the full scope of hurricane hazards. While the scale remains a widely recognized tool, experts like Zachary Handlos, director of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at Georgia Tech, suggest that a complementary system could enhance public understanding of the broader risks hurricanes pose.

Developed in 1969 by civil engineer and Georgia Tech alumnus Herbert Saffir, CE 1940, and meteorologist Robert Simpson, the scale classifies hurricanes solely by sustained wind speed, ranging from Category 1 to Category 5. It has long served as the primary tool for describing hurricane intensity in forecasts and media coverage.

"For anyone that follows hurricane coverage on TV, social media, the internet, or in any other form, the Saffir-Simpson scale is the way that hurricanes are described and classified," said Handlos.

Toward a More Comprehensive Hazard Framework

Handlos noted that while the scale is widely recognized, it does not account for other major hazards such as storm surge, inland flooding, tornadoes, and storm size. "Maximum wind speeds are certainly a threat if one is in the path of a hurricane," he said, "but several other hazards are also problematic."

A new scale to complement the Saffir-Simpson scale could be beneficial. It would need to have accurate messaging about all aspects of a hurricane event while also continuing to record Saffir-Simpson scale data for comparison to past events.

Any effort to revise or supplement the scale would require broad collaboration across sectors. Handlos emphasized that input from government agencies, emergency managers, academic researchers, and private industry would be essential, and that formal adoption of any new system would likely involve coordination with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Hurricane Center.

He added, "If there is a way to update this scale or devise a new scale that both accounts for all types of hurricane hazards and is something that is digestible to the general public, this could be helpful in the future."

Forecasting Advances and Communication Challenges

Climate change is not currently altering how hurricane strength is measured, but it is changing the conditions in which hurricanes form. Handlos said that with the observed increase in global average temperature over the past several decades, scientists also anticipate sea surface temperature values continuing to rise. This would result in the additional transfer of heat energy from the ocean's surface to the atmosphere, further fueling hurricanes. It also provides the potential for hurricane development farther poleward in both hemispheres.

He also pointed to changes in atmospheric moisture. As air temperature rises, the atmosphere's capacity to hold water vapor is expected to increase. One possible consequence of this is that any rainfall associated with hurricanes could be associated with higher rain rates and more total precipitation, which could intensify inland flooding.

Advances in forecasting technology are helping meteorologists improve how hurricane hazards are predicted and communicated. According to Handlos, the integration of traditional numerical weather prediction models with artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques, alongside data from radar, satellites, weather balloons, and aircraft, has significantly enhanced the accuracy of hurricane forecasts over the past two decades.

Still, Handlos cautioned that effectively reaching the public remains a persistent challenge. "Despite repeated warnings and widespread messaging, we often hear stories of individuals choosing not to evacuate, because they've weathered previous storms without issue," he said. "In today's environment of nonstop social media, constant notifications, and information overload, people can struggle to identify which messages are most important and trustworthy."