How Much Further Could Lowe’s Stock Fall With Its DIY Shoppers Holding Back

Lowe's Companies (LOW) stock trades near $191, its lowest price of the past year and about 33% below its 52-week high. Over the trailing twelve months, it lost 25.9%, while the S&P 500 returned 18.5% with dividends reinvested. No market crash did this. So how much further could it fall if one arrives?

Why Has Lowe's Fallen So Far Without A Crash?

Its do-it-yourself shoppers are holding back. DIY customers make up more than 60% of the business, and the CEO says they are cautious about where and when they spend on their homes. In the quarter ended July 31, 2026, comparable sales rose just 0.2% and comparable transactions fell 2.1%.

July also brought a price fight. Competitors used tariff refunds to cut prices on grills, patio and live goods, and Lowe's chose not to match them. In August the company trimmed its full-year 2026 outlook to the bottom of its earlier range.

The businesses Lowe's bought to win larger professional customers are struggling too. Artisan Design Group is 100% exposed to residential construction and Foundation Building Materials about 45%, and new home construction is running softer for longer.

Is Lowe's Actually A Worse Business Now?

Weaker, not broken. Revenue over the trailing twelve months rose 8.2%, well above its three-year average growth of -0.7%. But reported revenue now includes Foundation Building Materials, bought last year, and Artisan Design Group, so the 0.2% comparable-sales rise is the better read on demand.

Profitability has slipped. The operating margin over the trailing twelve months is 11.4%, below its three-year average of 12.3%. Management argues Lowe's is a far better company than it was before the housing recession.

How Much Further Could Lowe's Fall In A Real Shock?

Across 15 market shocks since 2007, Lowe's fell an average of 18% peak to trough, about as far as the 16% for the S&P 500. Its worst-hit type of market-wide shock is a growth and demand scare, where it has fallen 27% on average, and weak DIY demand is already Lowe's own problem.

Its deepest fall in those shocks was 47%, in the 2020 COVID-19 Crash, against 34% for the index. Over its full history the deepest was about 61%, from a 2007 peak to a 2009 trough. Today's slide of about 33% is already close to the 32% it lost in the 2022 inflation shock.

On a position worth a tenth of your portfolio, a 47% fall would cut about 5% from the whole portfolio. At a fifth, it would cut about 9%.

From the low, Lowe's took a median of about 3 months to reclaim its pre-shock high. The slowest came after the 2022 inflation shock and rate hikes, at about 21 months. Management says interest rates are weighing on its customers now, so plan for the slow case.

How Far Could Your Biggest Holding Fall?

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