Australian shoppers are facing higher prices on chocolate in the lead-up to Easter with reports of noticeable increases across shelves. An RMIT supply chain expert unpacks the complex and ever-changing reasons behind increased prices.

Dr Vinh Thai, logistics and supply chain management

"The price of cocoa - the key ingredient for making chocolate - has experienced extreme volatility in recent years due to various supply factors such as extreme weather in West Africa, disease, fertiliser issues, and other supply disruptions.

"Crops have improved during 2025/2026, and it is forecasted that cocoa supply issues will be further eased, pulling the price down from its peak of over $12,220 per ton in April 2024.

"But despite the easing prices, the shelf price of chocolate at retail outlets remains elevated for various reasons including increasing costs of other ingredients and components for production, and now the impacts of the conflict in Iran.

"Meanwhile, there is also a time factor involved as the cocoa shipments used to make chocolate this year were purchased at the price peak, thus cost savings from the current cocoa price drop have not yet been passed on.

"So, when will the price of chocolate reduce? We may see it reduce toward the end of 2026 and moving into 2027, provided that the current conflict in Iran does not prolong, and there are more certainties related to other supply-related factors like weather conditions, which can be hard to predict."

Dr Vinh Thai is a professor of logistics and supply chain management, specialising in maritime logistics. He is the founder of the Australian Maritime Logistics Research Network.

***

General media enquiries: RMIT External Affairs and Media, 0439 704 077 or [email protected]