Wildfires, from models to the field: the case of Bolivia

Wildfires are among the most devastating emergencies our planet faces. Events like those currently affecting California are driven by strong, extremely dry winds, months-long drought conditions, and almost nonexistent precipitation, creating ideal conditions for rapid fire spread. These fires are threatening human lives, biodiversity, and infrastructure, highlighting how climate change exacerbates risk dynamics. Similarly, in Bolivia, recent wildfire seasons have exposed the high vulnerability of tropical forests. In 2019, the Chiquitania region experienced extraordinary fires, which devastated hundreds of thousands of hectares, severely threatening the region's ecological balance.

These dramatic episodes underline the urgency of adopting an integrated approach to understand, predict, and mitigate wildfire risks. Extreme weather conditions, such as prolonged droughts and intense winds, create fertile ground for fire ignition and spread. In this context, CIMA Research Foundation has developed advanced tools that integrate science and technology to tackle these challenges.

Wildfire Risk Management: the RISICO model

Effective wildfire management requires cutting-edge scientific tools capable of translating complex data into actionable insights. CIMA Research Foundation has developed and refined a suite of tools over time, including the RISICO model, designed to predict and monitor conditions conducive to fire ignition and spread. "RISICO is a platform that integrates meteorological data, vegetation information, and topographical models to provide accurate risk forecasts. It was developed by CIMA Research Foundation in 2000 in collaboration with the Liguria Region and the Italian Department of Civil Protection," explains Paolo Fiorucci, Associate Director of CIMA Research Foundation. Over the years, the platform has been enriched with advanced modules modeling parameters such as fine fuel moisture and fire spread velocity, ensuring increasingly precise forecasts.

CIMA Research Foundation's research approach rests on three key pillars:

• A focus on prevention and preparedness through proactive strategies aimed at minimizing risk.

• Continuous optimization, improving tools and methods based on implementation results at supranational, national, regional, and local levels.

• Intelligent use of available data, integrating cartographic resources (land use maps, forest maps), sensors, satellite imagery, and meteorological forecasts.

Unlike many global alert systems that rely solely on meteorological variables, RISICO stands out for its emphasis on characterizing vegetative fuels. This approach is rooted in studies conducted in Italy, where it was observed that wind, low humidity, and high temperatures only result in severe fires when accompanied by a significant continuity of highly flammable dry fuel. Initially, fuel characterization relied on empirical rules, but the integration of artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques has revolutionized this approach, enabling precise identification of areas with higher fire susceptibility using high-resolution spatial data and historical fire records.

The Chiquitania case study: science and collaboration in action

The Chiquitania region, renowned for its extraordinary biodiversity, is highly vulnerable to wildfires due to adverse climatic conditions and anthropogenic pressures. Within the framework of the EUROCLIMA program, funded by the European Union and implemented by Expertise France, CIMA Research Foundation has contributed to strengthening the early warning system for wildfires in the region. The RISICO model was adapted to the specific characteristics of the area, leading to the creation of RISICO-CHIQUITANIA.

RISICO-CHIQUITANIA was developed to address specific challenges observed during Bolivia's 2019 wildfire season, when fires burned hundreds of thousands of hectares, propagating slowly yet with great inertia, regardless of "hour-by-hour" meteorological forecasts. "We integrated local data, such as vegetation fuel maps and drought conditions, to enhance forecast accuracy and support informed decision-making," explains Andrea Trucchia, expert in Wildfires at CIMA Research Foundation.

The primary innovation was the integration of monthly updated drought indicators, such as the "Monitor de Sequías," which allowed for better representation of adverse conditions' impacts on vegetation. This combination of meteorological and climatic data has significantly improved the model's ability to anticipate the effects of prolonged droughts on fire susceptibility.

RISICO-CHIQUITANIA forecasts are delivered to institutions and decision-makers through the Fire Alert Bulletin, produced by the Bolivian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (SENAMHI) via the myDewetra Bulletins platform. During wildfire seasons, SENAMHI prepares this daily bulletin, offering scientifically backed information to support alerts and operational decisions. Covering a three-day horizon, the bulletin provides reliable predictions of risk conditions for today, tomorrow, and the day after. Focused on the Santa Cruz Department, it includes detailed analyses of six pilot municipalities: San José de Chiquitos, Roboré, Concepción, San Ignacio de Velasco, Puerto Suárez, and San Matías. "This tool enables local authorities to plan preventive actions based on fire risk information tailored to their territories," emphasizes Trucchia.

A programmatic approach to resilience in LAC

The contribution to the EUROCLIMA program in Bolivia aligns with CIMA Research Foundation's broader vision of strengthening early warning systems in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region. In recent years, CIMA has collaborated with various local and international institutions to develop integrated and sustainable approaches to risk management.

CIMA Research Foundation's work focuses both on short- and medium-term projections (using sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasts to enhance operational planning) and on long-term climate analysis (to characterize critical past seasons and estimate the likelihood of their recurrence under future emission scenarios through the end of the century). This requires a robust climate database, incorporating at least 30 years of historical RISICO outputs and future simulations.

"What we do is not just technology transfer but building skills and raising awareness," says Fiorucci. CIMA Research Foundation's approach is based on the synergy between science and practical application, aiming to protect not only the environment but also the communities that inhabit it. The combination of technological innovation, international collaboration, and local engagement can make a significant difference in the fight against wildfires.

This path of collaboration and applied science demonstrates that it is possible to develop risk management systems that prioritize local communities. Excluding the use of fire in areas where it has long been a valuable tool for ecosystem management is not the solution. On the contrary, defining tools that can identify when and where the use of fire can have positive impacts-and when and where it must be avoided-is instrumental in disaster mitigation, with global-scale benefits. This includes integrating information and communication with local authorities, communities, and citizens to increase awareness and promote correct behaviors. Integrated fire management must leverage tools capable of transforming increasingly reliable information into indicators that can guide the best risk mitigation strategies. Through innovative tools and a continuous dialogue between local stakeholders and research, the foundation is laid for resilience that goes beyond disaster prevention, strengthening the adaptive capacity and autonomy of the involved populations.

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