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12/11/2025 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 12/11/2025 10:27

Navigating the Divide: Why the U.S. Navy Must Resume FONOPs in Indonesia

Navigating the Divide: Why the U.S. Navy Must Resume FONOPs in Indonesia

Photo: Planet Observer/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

Commentary by Patrick Panjeti

Published December 11, 2025

The Decisive Detour: A Crisis in the Making

It's 2027. Tensions between the People's Republic of China (PRC) and Taiwan have reached a boiling point. After a recent port visit to Perth, a U.S. Navy carrier strike group (CSG) is ordered to make best speed from the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea. The CSG sets a course for the Sunda Strait to the Java Sea, then north via the Makassar Strait-the routes normally used for international navigation.

During the CSG's transit, a message arrives from Jakarta. Citing its long-standing "bebas-aktif" (free and active) non-aligned policy, Indonesia has closed its archipelagic waters and airspace to all foreign military ships and aircraft to preserve its neutrality.

The CSG is suddenly forced into a costly detour. Instead of a direct high-speed transit, the ships must now skirt the southern corridor of the Indonesian archipelago, funneling east through the Timor and Arafura Seas and then navigating north into the open Pacific just to approach the South China Sea. This diversion doesn't just add thousands of miles to the transit; the U.S. Seventh Fleet loses one of the most valuable assets in a maritime contingency: time. The detour adds approximately six days to the route; in a fight to defend Taiwan, days are decisive. It also channels naval forces into predictable chokepoints where they are most vulnerable to attack and burns an estimated $11 million in critical fuel.

This scenario is not a remote possibility: it is the logical and likely outcome of a dangerous disconnect between U.S. policy and operational practice.

For the better part of a decade, the U.S. Navy, in a well-intentioned effort to avoid straining ties, has de facto stopped asserting navigational rights inside the Indonesian archipelagic baseline. The United States' quiet acquiescence to Jakarta's creeping sovereignty over its archipelagic waters is setting a precedent that will have catastrophic operational consequences. The United States is, in effect, trading its operational access for a "good partner" sticker, and the ink on that sticker is fading fast.

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Military Fellow, Defense and Security Department
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Indications and Warnings Are Flashing Red

The Navy's operational "niceness" has not been reciprocated with flexibility. Instead, it has been met with a hardening, confident, and increasingly assertive stance from the Indonesian military (Tentara Nasional Indonesia, or TNI). Several recent events-some public, others quietly handled-should serve as a fleet-wide alarm bell:

  • Incident 1: The Public Accusation (July 2023): Admiral Yudo Margono, a former commander of the TNI, testified before the Indonesian parliament that the United States was the biggest violator of Indonesian airspace. He wasn't whispering this in a private military channel; he was declaring it in an open political forum, citing eight U.S. military aircraft "violations" in the first half of that year alone. This public shaming was a clear signal. The core issue is that Indonesia contends these flights violated its sovereign airspace, while the United States largely views them as a legitimate exercise of international air navigation rights.
  • Incident 2: The New Red Line (February 2025): Three U.S. Air Force C-130s transited from Darwin to Japan then back to Darwin that same day via the designated Archipelagic Sea Lane-3 (ASL-III). These flights were perfectly legal under any interpretation of international law, as reflected in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNLOS). Despite this, the Department of Defense (DOD) country team in Jakarta was informed that TNI headquarters staff (MABES-TNI) "should have been notified" before the flights took place. This is a dangerous and unprecedented claim. Indonesia is no longer just restricting where military vessels can transit, but if they can transit at all without prior consent-a clear violation of the "unobstructed" passage rights afforded by UNCLOS.

Figure 2: The Three Designated North-South Archipelagic Sea Lanes

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Note: Indonesia's Government Regulation 37 of 2002 established three north-south sea lanes (ASL-I, II, and III). The U.S. C-130s in February 2025 used ASL-3 (right). The map's lack of any designated east-west route, such as through the Java Sea, is the central legal disagreement. | Source: Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs, Limits in the Seas: Indonesia: Archipelagic and other Maritime Claims and Boundaries, no. 141 (Washington, DC: Department of State, 2014), 43-45, https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/LIS-141.pdf.

  • Incident 3: The Coincidental Threat (April 2025): Coincidence is rare in this business. Just two months after the C-130 incident, the Indonesian Air Force (TNI-AU) conducted an internal exercise. The scenario involved three TNI-AU F-16 fighter aircraft launching a simulated intercept and forced grounding of a C-130 "violating Indonesian air space" operating out of ASL-3. This was a clear, unambiguous signal, dramatically increasing the risk of a tactical miscalculation between U.S. forces and the TNI.
  • Incident 4: The Narrative Hardens (June 2025): During a multinational course on security cooperation hosted by the DOD in Honolulu, an Indonesian law professor publicly asked the lecturer why the United States "will sometimes violate the UNCLOS," referencing an alleged 2003 incident where aircraft from the USS Carl Vinson allegedly violated airspace over Bawean Island. (Note: This is known within the TNI as the "Bawean Incident," and was no small matter; it involved Indonesian F-16s intercepting U.S. F/A-18s, resulting in a dogfight, missile locks, and a formal diplomatic demarche from Jakarta. From the U.S. perspective, this was a textbook example of miscalculation; a diplomatic clearance request for the overflight had been submitted and approved by Jakarta, but this approval was never passed down to the local TNI-AU air controllers due to internal stovepipes.) While international law can be arcane to the general public, when "experts" and educators begin treating historical misunderstandings as fact, it signals a deeper entrenchment of the narrative that shapes Indonesia's future leaders and public opinion.

The "Grand Bargain" at the Heart of the Dispute

This entire disagreement stems from a central, hard-fought compromise at the heart of UNCLOS. Indonesia, as a nation of over 17,000 islands, effectively created the concept of the "archipelagic state." With its 1957 Djuanda Declaration, it boldly declared that all waters inside its baselines were not high seas, but sovereign internal waters.

For over two decades, the United States, the former Soviet Union, and other major maritime powers forcefully rejected this. It was seen as a radical attempt to close off vast swaths of the ocean, including critical routes like the Sunda Strait and Java Sea. The deadlock was finally broken during the Third UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS III). This was the "grand bargain": the United States and other powers, in a major concession, finally agreed to formally recognize the "archipelagic state" concept. In return, Indonesia and other new archipelagic states had to accept that these waters would not be "internal waters" but a new category: "archipelagic waters."

Critically, this new category came with a nonnegotiable right of ASL passage for all ships and aircraft. This right of passage, both through designated ASLs and "routes normally used for international navigation," was sacrosanct. It was the quid pro quo for recognizing the archipelagic state. When the United States challenges Indonesia's "creeping sovereignty" now, it is not simply arguing over a minor legal point; it is defending a central bargain of UNCLOS. Indonesia's attempts to impose notification requirements or restrict "normal routes" are a direct attempt to renege on that bargain, taking the concession of "sovereignty" while ignoring the "passage" obligation that came with it.

The Policy-Practice Disconnect

The U.S. legal position, articulated in State Department's Limits in the Seas No. 141, published in 2014, is clear:

  • Partial Designation: Indonesia's designation of three north-south ASLs was accepted by the International Maritime Organization only as a "partial designation," since the government of Indonesia did not designate an east-west ASL.
  • "Normal Routes" Apply: Under UNCLOS Article 53(12), if an archipelagic state "does not designate sea lanes" (i.e., east-west routes), the right of archipelagic sea lanes passage "may be exercised through the routes normally used for international navigation."
  • S. Stance: Limits in the Seas No. 141 explicitly concludes that Indonesian attempts to restrict east-west routes (like the Java Sea) are "inconsistent with the navigational rights reflected in the LOS Convention."

This is U.S. policy, but U.S. practice tells a different story.

The last publicly documented freedom of navigation operation (FONOP) that directly challenged Indonesia's excessive maritime claims in the Java Sea was on May 12, 2017, conducted by USS John Paul Jones. Since then, U.S. Navy warships and aircraft have meticulously avoided the Java Sea and other non-designated routes, citing the desire to avoid unnecessary diplomatic strain.

This operational avoidance has been interpreted by Jakarta not as a gesture of goodwill, but as a tacit acceptance of their restrictive interpretation. U.S. policy is legally clear but operationally muddled, and that lack of clarity is now being capitalized on by TNI's de facto policy.

Figure 3: Indonesia's Archipelagic Baselines

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Note: The solid crimson line defines the baseline from which Indonesia's 12 nautical mile (nm) territorial sea is measured. The waters inside this line, including the Java Sea, are claimed by Indonesia as sovereign "archipelagic waters." The United States legally challenges this, asserting the right of "archipelagic sea lanes passage" through these waters via normal routes, not just "innocent passage." | Source: Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs, Limits in the Seas: Indonesia: Archipelagic and other Maritime Claims and Boundaries, no. 141 (Washington, DC: Department of State, 2014), 43-45, https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/LIS-141.pdf.

Understanding the TNI's Sovereignty Red Line

To be clear, the TNI's actions are not random or rooted in anti-Americanism. From the Indonesian military's perspective, their actions are the logical, professional, and required defense of their nation's sovereignty. The United States cannot expect the TNI to "bend the rules" at the operational level when policymakers in Jakarta have not changed national policy.

This stance is underpinned by several key factors from the operational environment:

  • Political: Indonesia's "bebas-aktif" (free and active) non-aligned foreign policy is the bedrock of its national identity. In a U.S.-PRC conflict, the default position will be a rigid, legalistic neutrality. Granting special access to U.S. and allied forces would be seen as a violation of this core principle.
  • Military: The TNI's primary function, and the very core of its institutional identity, is to defend the nation's sovereignty. MABES-TNI will formally protest any action by the United States or the PRC that it deems an infringement. The F-16 exercise (Incident 3) was a clear demonstration that Indonesia has the capability and the political will to enforce its interpretation of the law. Enforcing this sovereignty is a core institutional interest for the TNI, justifying its budget, modernization, and political influence.
  • Social/Information: There is a deep, cross-political sensitivity to sovereignty, born from the archipelago's colonial history. The "Bawean Incident" and Admiral Margono's testimony are not just random military data points; they are powerful information campaigns that shape public and political opinion, reinforcing the narrative that Indonesia's sovereignty is under constant threat.

The TNI will continue to execute its duty as it sees it: detecting, challenging, and intercepting perceived unauthorized transits until Indonesia's political policy is clarified. The United States' operational assertions should therefore not be aimed at forcing the TNI to back down, but at forcing this legal disconnect to be resolved at the political level.

The Two-Pronged Solution: FONOPs and Diplomatic Transparency

The current path is trending toward failure. The United States is not preserving the bilateral relationship, and current policy is empowering a neutral partner that, in a crisis, will default to the "safe" position of blocking everyone, including the United States and its allies. Indonesia's bebas-aktif foreign policy is, at its core, about maintaining the country's own autonomy. It is folly to assume Indonesia will automatically bend to U.S. needs in a conflict.

To correct this policy-practice drift, international law must be enforced. This requires a deliberate, two-pronged strategy that synchronizes U.S. operational mandates with U.S. bilateral engagement: The United States must resume specific operational assertions while simultaneously executing a focused diplomatic initiative to message U.S. actions and legal standing.

  1. A Targeted Return to Freedom of Navigation
    The United States must resume FONOPs that challenge Indonesia's specific excessive claims. This is not about escalation; it is about reestablishing the status quo ante.
    • Challenge the east-west route. Conduct high-profile transit passage (not innocent passage, which Indonesia could interpret differently) through the Java Sea with no notification. The transit must be continuous, expeditious, and professionally broadcast as "archipelagic sea lanes passage" in accordance with UNCLOS Art. 53(12).
    • Challenge the "consent" requirement. Continue to conduct military overflights through the designated ASLs without notification. Make it so routine that it becomes the normal pattern of life and directly refutes the new, dangerous claim from the February 2025 C-130 incident. This also upholds the right of "normal mode" transit, which for aircraft means no pre-notification.
  2. Conveying Diplomatic Transparency
    Operational assertions must be paired with high-level diplomacy to message U.S. intent clearly: The U.S. Navy is upholding international law, not attacking a partner.
    • Engage in formal diplomatic protest. A diplomatic demarche should be submitted to Jakarta, specifically contesting any requirement from MABES-TNI for pre-notification in designated ASLs and Indonesia's restrictive interpretation of its own Government Regulation 37 of 2002. This re-establishes the legal record of non-acquiescence.
    • Leverage the alliance network. The United States should not act alone. It must actively encourage and support its allies, particularly the Five Eyes and Japan, to conduct their own transits through these routes. This demonstrates that this is not a U.S.-Indonesia dispute, but a united international community upholding the rules-based order.
    • Engage at the top. Use existing annual bilateral and multilateral exercises like Super Garuda Shield, Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training (CARAT), and Southeast Asia Cooperation and Training (SEACAT) to integrate blunt discussions on international law. The goal is to reach a common understanding that UNCLOS, including the right of ASL transit, is a benefit to Indonesia's security, not a threat to its sovereignty.

Indonesia's leaders are not bluffing. They are building a legal, political, and military framework to enforce a version of sovereignty that is fundamentally incompatible with the U.S. Navy's operational requirements. The United States cannot wait for a crisis to discover maritime commons through the Java Sea and Sunda Strait are closed. The United States must use FONOPs-the tool designed for this exact problem. By reasserting rights now, in peacetime, the United States is not picking a fight; it is preventing a future one.

Good partners are transparent partners. It is time to be transparent.

Patrick Panjeti is a military fellow with the Defense and Security Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

The opinions expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the views or policy of the U.S. Defense Department, the Department of the Navy, or the U.S. government. No federal endorsement is implied or intended.

Commentary is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).

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