12/11/2025 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 12/11/2025 10:27
Photo: Planet Observer/Universal Images Group via Getty Images
Commentary by Patrick Panjeti
Published December 11, 2025
It's 2027. Tensions between the People's Republic of China (PRC) and Taiwan have reached a boiling point. After a recent port visit to Perth, a U.S. Navy carrier strike group (CSG) is ordered to make best speed from the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea. The CSG sets a course for the Sunda Strait to the Java Sea, then north via the Makassar Strait-the routes normally used for international navigation.
During the CSG's transit, a message arrives from Jakarta. Citing its long-standing "bebas-aktif" (free and active) non-aligned policy, Indonesia has closed its archipelagic waters and airspace to all foreign military ships and aircraft to preserve its neutrality.
The CSG is suddenly forced into a costly detour. Instead of a direct high-speed transit, the ships must now skirt the southern corridor of the Indonesian archipelago, funneling east through the Timor and Arafura Seas and then navigating north into the open Pacific just to approach the South China Sea. This diversion doesn't just add thousands of miles to the transit; the U.S. Seventh Fleet loses one of the most valuable assets in a maritime contingency: time. The detour adds approximately six days to the route; in a fight to defend Taiwan, days are decisive. It also channels naval forces into predictable chokepoints where they are most vulnerable to attack and burns an estimated $11 million in critical fuel.
This scenario is not a remote possibility: it is the logical and likely outcome of a dangerous disconnect between U.S. policy and operational practice.
For the better part of a decade, the U.S. Navy, in a well-intentioned effort to avoid straining ties, has de facto stopped asserting navigational rights inside the Indonesian archipelagic baseline. The United States' quiet acquiescence to Jakarta's creeping sovereignty over its archipelagic waters is setting a precedent that will have catastrophic operational consequences. The United States is, in effect, trading its operational access for a "good partner" sticker, and the ink on that sticker is fading fast.
The Navy's operational "niceness" has not been reciprocated with flexibility. Instead, it has been met with a hardening, confident, and increasingly assertive stance from the Indonesian military (Tentara Nasional Indonesia, or TNI). Several recent events-some public, others quietly handled-should serve as a fleet-wide alarm bell:
Figure 2: The Three Designated North-South Archipelagic Sea Lanes
Note: Indonesia's Government Regulation 37 of 2002 established three north-south sea lanes (ASL-I, II, and III). The U.S. C-130s in February 2025 used ASL-3 (right). The map's lack of any designated east-west route, such as through the Java Sea, is the central legal disagreement. | Source: Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs, Limits in the Seas: Indonesia: Archipelagic and other Maritime Claims and Boundaries, no. 141 (Washington, DC: Department of State, 2014), 43-45, https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/LIS-141.pdf.
This entire disagreement stems from a central, hard-fought compromise at the heart of UNCLOS. Indonesia, as a nation of over 17,000 islands, effectively created the concept of the "archipelagic state." With its 1957 Djuanda Declaration, it boldly declared that all waters inside its baselines were not high seas, but sovereign internal waters.
For over two decades, the United States, the former Soviet Union, and other major maritime powers forcefully rejected this. It was seen as a radical attempt to close off vast swaths of the ocean, including critical routes like the Sunda Strait and Java Sea. The deadlock was finally broken during the Third UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS III). This was the "grand bargain": the United States and other powers, in a major concession, finally agreed to formally recognize the "archipelagic state" concept. In return, Indonesia and other new archipelagic states had to accept that these waters would not be "internal waters" but a new category: "archipelagic waters."
Critically, this new category came with a nonnegotiable right of ASL passage for all ships and aircraft. This right of passage, both through designated ASLs and "routes normally used for international navigation," was sacrosanct. It was the quid pro quo for recognizing the archipelagic state. When the United States challenges Indonesia's "creeping sovereignty" now, it is not simply arguing over a minor legal point; it is defending a central bargain of UNCLOS. Indonesia's attempts to impose notification requirements or restrict "normal routes" are a direct attempt to renege on that bargain, taking the concession of "sovereignty" while ignoring the "passage" obligation that came with it.
The U.S. legal position, articulated in State Department's Limits in the Seas No. 141, published in 2014, is clear:
This is U.S. policy, but U.S. practice tells a different story.
The last publicly documented freedom of navigation operation (FONOP) that directly challenged Indonesia's excessive maritime claims in the Java Sea was on May 12, 2017, conducted by USS John Paul Jones. Since then, U.S. Navy warships and aircraft have meticulously avoided the Java Sea and other non-designated routes, citing the desire to avoid unnecessary diplomatic strain.
This operational avoidance has been interpreted by Jakarta not as a gesture of goodwill, but as a tacit acceptance of their restrictive interpretation. U.S. policy is legally clear but operationally muddled, and that lack of clarity is now being capitalized on by TNI's de facto policy.
Figure 3: Indonesia's Archipelagic Baselines
Note: The solid crimson line defines the baseline from which Indonesia's 12 nautical mile (nm) territorial sea is measured. The waters inside this line, including the Java Sea, are claimed by Indonesia as sovereign "archipelagic waters." The United States legally challenges this, asserting the right of "archipelagic sea lanes passage" through these waters via normal routes, not just "innocent passage." | Source: Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs, Limits in the Seas: Indonesia: Archipelagic and other Maritime Claims and Boundaries, no. 141 (Washington, DC: Department of State, 2014), 43-45, https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/LIS-141.pdf.
To be clear, the TNI's actions are not random or rooted in anti-Americanism. From the Indonesian military's perspective, their actions are the logical, professional, and required defense of their nation's sovereignty. The United States cannot expect the TNI to "bend the rules" at the operational level when policymakers in Jakarta have not changed national policy.
This stance is underpinned by several key factors from the operational environment:
The TNI will continue to execute its duty as it sees it: detecting, challenging, and intercepting perceived unauthorized transits until Indonesia's political policy is clarified. The United States' operational assertions should therefore not be aimed at forcing the TNI to back down, but at forcing this legal disconnect to be resolved at the political level.
The current path is trending toward failure. The United States is not preserving the bilateral relationship, and current policy is empowering a neutral partner that, in a crisis, will default to the "safe" position of blocking everyone, including the United States and its allies. Indonesia's bebas-aktif foreign policy is, at its core, about maintaining the country's own autonomy. It is folly to assume Indonesia will automatically bend to U.S. needs in a conflict.
To correct this policy-practice drift, international law must be enforced. This requires a deliberate, two-pronged strategy that synchronizes U.S. operational mandates with U.S. bilateral engagement: The United States must resume specific operational assertions while simultaneously executing a focused diplomatic initiative to message U.S. actions and legal standing.
Indonesia's leaders are not bluffing. They are building a legal, political, and military framework to enforce a version of sovereignty that is fundamentally incompatible with the U.S. Navy's operational requirements. The United States cannot wait for a crisis to discover maritime commons through the Java Sea and Sunda Strait are closed. The United States must use FONOPs-the tool designed for this exact problem. By reasserting rights now, in peacetime, the United States is not picking a fight; it is preventing a future one.
Good partners are transparent partners. It is time to be transparent.
Patrick Panjeti is a military fellow with the Defense and Security Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.
The opinions expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the views or policy of the U.S. Defense Department, the Department of the Navy, or the U.S. government. No federal endorsement is implied or intended.
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