The Dairy Bar - Powered by Ever.Ag

The Dairy Bar - Powered by Ever.Ag

Read the latest issue of The Dairy Bar, a bi-weekly report from IDFA partner Ever.Ag. The Dairy Bar features spotlight data, key policy updates, and a one-minute video that covers timely topics for the dairy industry.

The Dairy Bar: Corn and Soybean Harvest Update; Current Beef Prices; and Butter in a Minute!

Quick Bites: Ground Beef Breaks Records

• There's a lot of buzz about beef right now. With a contracted beef cattle herd, beef and dairy farmers alike are receiving record-high prices for finished cattle, cull cows, and beef-on cross calves.
• Those sky-high prices are also showing up in the grocery store. In August, ground beef averaged $6.32 per pound - up 1% on the month and 13% year-over-year to reach a new record. But even with elevated prices, Americans are still buying beef to meet their taste preferences and desire for protein
• People do not seem willing to spend money on beef at restaurants, though. August Placer.ai data showed visits to restaurants and quick-service restaurants were running 2.2% below year-prior levels.
• To bring customers back to the table or drive-thru, more restaurants are focusing on value. Just last week, McDonald's reintroduced Extra Value Meals, which save customers about 15% compared to buying menu items individually. Prior to that, the burger chain offered a $5 Meal Deal and various items for $1 when purchased with one full-priced menu item. Chains that have been committed to value, such as Chili's and Taco Bell, have been performing better than average so far this year. Now more restaurants may place additional emphasis on deals for customers to bring them back to buying burgers and more.

Today's Special

• It's the time of year when choppers and combines are rolling in the fields. Favorable growing conditions in many parts of the country have set the stage for big U.S. corn and soybean crops, and USDA numbers back up that prediction.
• In its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, USDA increased corn production estimates for the 2025 harvest. Even though corn yield was trimmed from 188.8 bushels per acre to 186.7 bushels, planted acreage rose to more than 98 million acres, an all-time high. With expectations for 90.0 harvested acres, that helped elevate overall production to 16.814 billion bushels.
• It is a similar story for soybeans, with projections for harvested acres up slightly to 80.3 million in the latest USDA report. Yield was reduced marginally to 53.5 bushels per acre, down from 53.6 bushels in the August estimate. Overall production estimates are pegged at 4.301 billion bushels this harvest season.
• Expectations for a large corn and soybean crop will likely put pressure on grain markets. While soybean prices have rallied recently, corn already fell below $4.00 per bushel this month.
• Lower prices make U.S. grains more desirable on the export market, but one notable buyer has been absent from soybean sales. Amid trade disagreements, China has been reluctant to make soybean purchases from the U.S. and instead has leaned heavily on Brazil for its soybean. China has historically been the biggest customer for U.S. soybeans, importing 26.8 metric tons valued at more than $12.6 billion in 2024. But China has yet to buy any American soybeans from the 2025-26 crop year.
• Lower grain prices can also be good for farmers because it equates to less expensive feed. However, lower feed costs often incentivize dairies to milk more cows. U.S. milk production has already been on the rise, growing more than 3% in both June and July. With more milk on the market and expectations for continued growth, Class III and Class IV futures have been on a downward spiral. Lower feed costs and extra revenue from cull cows and beef calves help make up the difference for weakening milk prices for now, but no dairy producer wants to see extended low prices on the horizon.

Something Sweet: Butter in a Minute!