Live at 4:30 p.m. PT: Fire risk still to come — YouTube ‘Office Hours’ with Daniel Swain

Happening today, Friday, Jan. 10, at 4:30 p.m. PT is YouTube "Office Hours": With serious wildfires popping up like a hellish game of whack-a-mole in greater Los Angeles, what's the fire risk this weekend? Next week? UCLA and University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources climate scientist Daniel Swain will discuss the ongoing fires and the outlook for upcoming fire weather risks today in another live briefing:

YouTube 'Office Hours' with Daniel Swain:

Friday, Jan. 10
4:30 p.m. PT / 7:30 p.m. ET

Expect more office hours to come - check Swain's streaming page to find the latest. Join today's Q&A live, and put your questions in the chat, or watch the recording at the same link any time after the fact.

Also from Swain, this research out yesterday explains how climate change fueled these fires. More intense wildfires are a consequence of hydroclimate whiplash - rapid swings between extreme wet and dry weather, including an ever-thirstier atmosphere - and that whiplash is accelerating worldwide. You can read more from his series of posts about the findings or the news release:

Floods, droughts, then fires: Hydroclimate whiplash is speeding up globally

Los Angeles is burning, and accelerating hydroclimate whiplash is the key climate connection.

New research links intensifying wet and dry swings to the atmosphere's sponge-like ability to drop and absorb water.

"The evidence shows that hydroclimate whiplash has already increased due to global warming, and further warming will bring about even larger increases," said lead author Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UCLA and UC Agriculture and Natural Resources. "This whiplash sequence in California has increased fire risk twofold: first, by greatly increasing the growth of flammable grass and brush in the months leading up to fire season, and then by drying it out to exceptionally high levels with the extreme dryness and warmth that followed."

Swain explains the connection between climate change, hydroclimate whiplash, and the fires in Los Angeles:

• "Much of Southern California is now experiencing its driest start to the water year on record immediately following a period of record warmth for much of this summer and autumn across inland and interior regions. Additionally, most of coastal southern California experienced two consecutive unusually wet winters in 2023 and 2024. That sequence of events, from extremely wet conditions in 2023-2024 to extremely dry and warm conditions in late 2024 and early 2025 has resulted in an extraordinary period of 'hydroclimate whiplash' in the region. This whiplash sequence increases fire risk twofold: first, by greatly increasing the growth of flammable grass and brush in the months leading up to fire season, and then by drying it out to exceptionally high levels with the extreme dryness and warmth that followed."

• "Climate change has already brought hotter and drier fire seasons to Southern California that increasingly extend into the winter months. This is particularly problematic because strong offshore winds often occur in late autumn and winter in this part of the world. When such strong winds overlap with extremely dry vegetation conditions, as is the case at present, very dangerous wildfire conditions can develop. This, ultimately, is the key climate change connection to Southern California wildfires: primarily, hotter and drier fire seasons (including drier autumns and early winter periods - as at present), and additionally, increasing wet-to-dry whiplash as precipitation becomes increasingly concentrated into shorter, sharper bursts and into a narrower rainy season, allowing 'very dry vegetation season' to increasingly overlap with the traditional 'strong and dry offshore wind season.'"

Tags: climate change | climate