DAS Office of Economic Analysis Presents Q1 March Economic Outlook and Revenue Forecast

The Department of Administrative Services Office of Economic Analysis State Chief Economist Carl Riccadonna and Senior Economist Michael Kennedy presented the latest economic outlook and revenue forecast to the legislative committee on finance and revenue on Wednesday, Feb. 4. The quarterly revenue forecasts serve to open the revenue forecasting process to the public and is the basis for much of the Oregon state government budgeting process.

What is different about this forecast?

The first quarter (Q1) March economic outlook shows improvement as government data releases have primarily returned to their normal schedule following the federal government shutdown last fall. Both state and national economic resilience remain a key focus. A stronger growth outlook, supported by monetary and fiscal stimulus, further reduces recession risks and is expected to create positive labor market conditions.

Revenue Forecast

As new information about prior tax years becomes available, it reshapes the understanding of tax collections related to economic activity. Over the last three months, updated data shows Corporate Income Tax liability is stronger than expected, while Personal Income Tax liability is modestly lower than previously estimated. Improved data on economic output and profitability, along with resources carried over from the prior biennium, contribute to the net change in the projected General Fund balance.

About the Office of Economic Analysis

The state chief economist oversees the Office of Economic Analysis, within the Department of Administrative Services, and provides objective forecasts of the state's economy, revenue, populations, corrections population and Youth Authority population. These forecasts are used across state government, and by the public for a variety of reasons, notably to inform the state budgeting process. For more information about the Office of Economic Analysis and recent forecasts visit https://www.oregon.gov/das/oea/pages/index.aspx.