From One Crisis to Another: Building Resilience in North Africa’s Volatile Food Systems

• Dossier Middle East and North Africa
  by Aldo Liga
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Four years ago, the outbreak of the war in Ukraine contributed to trigger a global food crisis. In North Africa, a region highly reliant on food imports, particularly cereals, the crisis quickly evolved into a threat that higher prices and potential supply disruptions could exacerbate other social grievances, leading to protests, turmoil and instability. Although this risk has gradually receded, the possibility that wars, geopolitical competition and the pervasive impacts of climate change could trigger another sustained spike in prices has not disappeared. On the contrary, it looms over the region's future. Indeed, today's escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, which has already spilled into neighbouring countries, is already affecting food markets in its early days: the Strait of Hormuz is a crucial shipping route for exports of urea, sulphur and ammonia, essential components for nitrogen or phosphate fertilisers, whose prices have already jumped sharply. This is an additional reminder of how food security in North Africa oscillates perilously between one crisis and the next, as the region strives to forge its own resilience amid structural vulnerabilities. How are North African countries preparing for this new potential crisis and the ones that may follow? What political, economic, and technical investments can bolster the resilience of their food systems and address deep-rooted fragilities? And what role can international cooperation play in supporting these efforts?