MEMO: New Polling Finds GOP’s Medicaid Cuts Are Deeply Unpopular and Big Vulnerability for GOP in VA and NJ Gov Races

FROM: DGA Executive Director Meghan Meehan-Draper

TO: Interested Parties

RE: New Polling Finds GOP's Medicaid Cuts Are Deeply Unpopular and Big Vulnerability for GOP in VA and NJ Gov Races

Following President Trump signing his tax and spending bill, the DGA commissioned new polling in Virginia and New Jersey that finds the law's new Medicaid and SNAP cuts are deeply unpopular with voters.

The polling also finds that this will be a major vulnerability for Virginia GOP nominee Winsome Earle-Sears and New Jersey GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli, who have strongly supported the bill and struggled to defend its deep cuts to Medicaid that could strip health care away from over 320,000 Virginians and 350,000 New Jerseyans.

• Earle-Sears has tied herself directly to this bill, bragging about how it will do "so many great things." Since then Earle-Sears has made her own problems worse by dismissing concerns about Medicaid cuts by responding, "So I would say to Virginia, don't panic."

• Ciattarelli has also championed the bill, saying "shame on any Republican across the country that doesn't support this." He even claimed the bill's Medicaid cuts aren't "a New Jersey issue."

Key findings from the new polling, conducted between July 9-10, include:

• In Virginia, 55 percent of voters said they have "serious concerns" about Winsome Earle-Sears' support for Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill." 53 percent of voters said they would "prefer a governor who opposes the law" vs. just 37 percent of voters who "prefer a governor who supports the bill." Additionally, 53 percent of voters said the bill would make life worse vs. just 29 percent who said it would make life better.

• In New Jersey, 59 percent of respondents said they have "serious concerns" about Jack Ciatterelli's support for Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill." 53 percent of voters said they would "prefer a governor who opposes the law" vs. just 39 percent of voters who "prefer a governor who supports the bill." Additionally, 48 percent of voters said the bill would make life worse vs. just 28 percent who said it would make life better.

• In both states, over 60 percent of voters shared concerns (61 percent in NJ and 67 percent in VA) that the budget bill is "harmful because it cuts Medicaid and SNAP to pay for tax cuts for the rich, while adding to the deficit."

• The majority of respondents in both states said their top concern about the bill was that it would take health care away from seniors, families and kids who need to be covered.

While Republicans will be forced to own these unpopular and harmful health care cuts, Democrats are running on affordability and improving lives for working families. Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill are not only standing up to these harmful cuts, they are also outlining their own positive vision to lift up families and putting forward real plans to lower costs.

• In Virginia, Spanberger has traveled the state - including a bus tour with over 40 stops - to discuss her plans to lower housing, health care, and energy costs.
• In New Jersey, Sherrill is running on her Affordability Agenda to lower housing, energy, health care, taxes, child care, and grocery costs.
• Focusing on real plans to lower costs for Americans is how Democratic governors have earned the trust of voters across party lines and won tough races, including in states Trump won in 2024 like North Carolina, Kentucky, Kansas, Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The DGA has the winning record to hold Republicans accountable and secure victories in governor's races across the map. As Republican candidates face backlash for backing Donald Trump's cuts to Medicaid, the DGA and its allied entities are aggressively going on offense to make history by flipping Virginia and holding New Jersey this year.

In June, the DGA announced an initial $5 million to support Abigail Spanberger's campaign, who would be the first woman elected governor of Virginia. And last week, a DGA-backed group reserved $20 million in TV, digital and stream ads in support of Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey, where it's been over 50 years since Democrats have won three gubernatorial races in a row.

Winning these races in 2025 will also help build momentum heading into the 36 races for governor in 2026, where several GOP members of Congress who voted for Trump's Medicaid and SNAP cuts are seeking or preparing to run for their state's Republican nomination for governor.

BOTTOM LINE: The races for governor in Virginia and New Jersey in November will be voters' first opportunity to reject Trump's harmful budget bill - and the GOP nominees will not be able to run from their record of supporting these deeply unpopular Medicaid cuts.

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