Latin America will have 38 million fewer school-age people by 2050: key measures for adapting education systems

Between 2020 and 2050, Latin America will have 38.3 million fewer school-age people. The decline in the student population will alter demand for teachers, infrastructure needs and the distribution of education resources. This is one of the findings of the article El impacto de la caída de la natalidad en los sistemas educativos de América Latina , published in issue 122 of Population Notes, the journal of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).

The study warns that declining enrolment could free up funding and educational spaces, while also changing teacher availability. These resources could be redirected to reduce class sizes, provide more personalized teaching, expand coverage, and strengthen early childhood, secondary and technical and vocational education, as well as teacher training and support for the most disadvantaged territories.

However, the authors point out that these opportunities for improvement will not materialize automatically. The region still faces major education gaps: only 72% of children of pre-primary school age are enrolled, and around 41% do not complete secondary education. In addition, investment in education remains insufficient to guarantee inclusive, equitable and quality education. Lower enrolment should therefore not automatically lead to budget cuts, but rather open up a discussion on how available resources can be redistributed and reinvested.

The study estimates that, by 2050, demographic change could free up around 30% of the financial resources currently used at each level of education, assuming that expenditure per student remains constant. However, these resources may not be sufficient to achieve universal coverage in compulsory education, improve quality and address the needs of the levels and territories that are furthest behind.

A change already reaching classrooms

Latin America has been undergoing a rapid demographic transition for decades. Since 1950, the regional fertility rate has fallen from 5.8 to 1.8 children per woman. Between 2018 and 2023, the largest declines in the number of births were recorded in Argentina, Costa Rica, Chile and Uruguay.

The effects will first be felt at education levels serving the youngest children, before gradually moving through primary and secondary education.

"We are facing a structural change that will progress at different speeds, but will ultimately affect every country. Anticipating its consequences will make it possible to take better public policy decisions," says Simone Cecchini, Director of the Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of ECLAC.

Simulations conducted for Argentina, Costa Rica and Uruguay illustrate the scale and pace of this process. If current coverage levels remain unchanged, these countries would have around 20% fewer students by 2030. By 2050, the size of their education systems could shrink by between 32% and 40%.

Chile provides a particularly clear illustration of the speed of this transformation. Between 2018 and 2023, the number of births declined by 20.3%, while the total fertility rate fell to 1.17 children per woman. According to the estimates and projections used in the study, annual births would decrease from around 176,000 in 2023 to 144,000 in 2050.

The article also highlights that migration has made an important contribution to births and population growth in receiving countries such as Chile. This confirms that demographic change is not evenly distributed and that education planning cannot rely solely on national averages. It must also take into account how birth rates, enrolment, migration and population distribution are evolving in each territory.

The effects of this transition will differ across education levels. Reduced demand could make it easier to expand coverage in early childhood education. In secondary education, however, it will still be necessary to bring more adolescents into the system, support their continued attendance and ensure that they complete their studies before declining birth rates lead to a sustained fall in enrolment.

Smaller cohorts therefore do not automatically imply lower education needs. The region must still bring those who are out of school into the system, ensure that they remain enrolled and make progress towards universal completion. The challenge will be to use demographic change as an opportunity to close these gaps, rather than simply reducing the capacity of education systems.

Planning from a territorial perspective

Declining birth rates will not have the same effects in every community. Some schools will lose students, while others may maintain or even increase enrolment as a result of migration or population growth in particular territories.

The study therefore recommends integrating data on births, enrolment, migration and geographical location in order to anticipate where education provision will need to be reorganized, resources redistributed or specific services strengthened.

"It is not only a question of knowing how many students there will be, but also where they will be and what needs they will have. Planning based on territorial data can help avoid delayed decisions and improve the relevance of education," says Alejandro Vera, Education Specialist at the UNESCO Regional Office in Santiago.

Declining birth rates will not, in themselves, lead to better education systems. To turn this transformation into an opportunity, countries will need to anticipate its effects, safeguard investment in education and direct resources towards the people and territories that need them most.