Assessing Russian Firepower Strikes in Ukraine

Commentary by Benjamin JensenandYasir Atalan

Published October 23, 2024

Ukraine is under siege from Russian firepower strikes and needs additional Western military aid, expanded sanctions against Moscow's allies, intelligence support, and long-range strike authorization to defend its citizens.

From September 28, 2022, to September 1, 2024, Russia launched a total of 11,466 missiles. On average, 23.2 missiles were launched daily, with the median number of daily launches recorded at 17 missiles. This indicates that while the daily launch rate typically hovered around the mid-20s, there were numerous days with significantly higher activity. Notably, there were 17 days during the study period when missile launches exceeded 82 missiles in a single day. These high-intensity launch days correspond to specific military operations, strategic offensives, or responses to critical developments on the battlefield, reflecting moments of heightened conflict intensity.

This analysis is based on data compiled by Petro Ivaniuk. The dataset is available at Kaggle. CSIS has verified that the data aligns with the official numbers published by Ukraine's Air Force social media accounts. The analysis in this paper covers the period from September 2022 to September 2024.

The data reveals that the daily intercept rate averaged 83.5 percent, with the median intercept rate reaching 88.5 percent. This high level of intercept efficiency suggests the deployment of advanced missile defense technologies capable of neutralizing a substantial portion of incoming threats on most days. When evaluating the overall intercept rate across the entire study period, it stands at 79.8 percent. This aggregated figure, which is the total intercept rate of the launched missiles, while slightly lower than the daily averages, demonstrates that Ukraine has been successful at defending its skies, both due to Western support and indigenous programs like the acoustic air defense network.

The analysis of missile deployment during the Russia-Ukraine war reveals a significant diversity in the types of missile models employed by Russian forces. The dataset encompasses 52 distinct missile model entries, which include both individual models and combinations of multiple models. This diversity underscores the multifaceted offensive capabilities and strategic flexibility maintained throughout the conflict. While the dataset lists 52 missile model entries, many entries represent combinations of multiple models. After deconstructing these combinations, there are 36 unique missile models identified. This diversity reflects an operational approach to firepower strikes of combining different models like long-range attack drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles to complicate the ability of Ukraine to defend its skies. Of note, many of these unique combinations were launched from different geographic sites further complicating air defense.

Analyzing the missile launch data on a monthly basis reveals significant fluctuations in activity levels, indicative of strategic shifts and varying operational intensities throughout the conflict. The table below summarizes the average total launched missiles per day and the total number of missiles launched each month from September 2022 to September 2024.

Key Observations

Initial Surge (October-December 2022): Missile launch activities saw a significant uptick beginning in October 2022, with daily averages increasing to 22.3 missiles. This surge continued, peaking in December 2022 when the average daily launches reached 33.1 missiles, culminating in a total of 364 missiles launched that month. This period corresponds to Moscow's initial invasion plan. While high, the levels are likely smaller than what Israel's aerial strikes on Gaza and Iranian salvos targeting Israel imply about modern firepower strikes. Moscow either was trying to preserve Ukrainian infrastructure it thought it could seize intact or was thwarted by covert action-or bad logistics and targeting-from unleashing its full arsenal.

Consistent High Activity in Late 2023 and Early 2024: The latter part of 2023 and the early months of 2024 continued to exhibit high missile launch totals. December 2023 saw 29.0 missiles launched daily on average, totaling 840 missiles, while January 2024 and March 2024 maintained strong launch figures with 26.0 and 28.3 missiles daily, resulting in 677 and 849 missiles launched, respectively. These sustained high levels correspond to a drive by Russia to destroy Ukrainian critical infrastructure as a means of pressuring Kyiv to end the conflict.

Recent Trends (Mid to Late 2024): August 2024 emerged as the most active month within the dataset, with an average of 35.8 missiles launched daily and a cumulative total of 1,110 missiles. This spike suggests a major offensive or significant escalation in the conflict during this period. Conversely, September 2024 saw a sharp decline, with only 12 missiles launched, indicating a temporary lull in missile activities linked to either low stockpiles or Ukrainian long-range strikes.

Policy Implications

• Maintaining an average of over 23 missiles launched daily over nearly two years demonstrates a high level of sustained military capability in Moscow and logistical support from countries like Iran, North Korea, and China. The United States and its partners need to do more to curb the ability of these regimes to replenish Russia's arsenal.
• An overall intercept rate of 79.8 percent suggests effective defense mechanisms in place, potentially involving advanced missile defense systems capable of neutralizing a significant portion of incoming threats. Keeping this intercept rate high will require continued Western support for Ukraine.
• The 17 days with launches exceeding 82 missiles likely correspond to key strategic offensives or responses to specific events on the battlefield, signaling moments of heightened conflict intensity. A key intelligence task will be to develop indicators and warnings of larger salvos.
• The distribution of Russian launches across multiple unique sites and involving creative combinations of different missiles reinforce the importance of authorizing long-range strikes. Ukraine needs the flexibility to hit multiple missile launch sites deep inside Russia to reduce the potency of Moscow's firepower strikes.

Benjamin Jensen is a senior fellow for Futures Lab in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C., and the Petersen Chair of Emerging Technology and professor of strategic studies at the Marine Corps University School of Advanced Warfighting. Yasir Atalan is an associate fellow with the Futures Lab at CSIS.

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