Musk’s Merger Countdown Begins

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Trump said firms should pay 'dividends' to communities to make data centers popular, Apollo will delay PE associate recruiting until IB analysts have at least one year of work experience, Ken Griffin says AI is 'almost certainly' in a bubble, Meta will create a new non-voting share class, and Musk wants to merge Tesla and SpaceX before Trump's term ends.

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Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

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Markets

• US stocks jumped yesterday as SpaceX earnings spurred an AI relief rally

  • S&P rose for a third-straight day

• US 30Y yield dropped 3 bps to 5.38% to a one month low

• France 10Y yield hit 5% for the first time since 2002

• Indian rupee gained for an eighth-straight day to a four-month high buoyed by foreign inflows into Jio Platforms' record $3.1B IPO

Earnings

• Tesla beat Q3 earnings and revenue estimates despite a decline in auto sales and a surge in AI and robotics capex (CNBC)

• Meta beat Q3 earnings and revenue estimates on major milestones in its AI push, including launching frontier model Muse Wonder; the firm will create a new non-voting share class to allow for share sales to fund AI capex without reducing Zuck's control (CNBC)

• IBM also beat Q3 earnings and revenue estimates and raised its FY sales forecasts as it significantly eased deal delays (WSJ)

• What we're watching this week:

  • Today: Blackstone, American Airlines, Bloom Energy, Lockheed Martin

• Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

• Musk warned Democrats against going after him if the elections turn out in their favor. We're in for another interesting two years

• Sign up to trade on the Polymarket US app with code LIT and they'll send you a $25 bonus

Headline Roundup

• Putin agreed to resume three-way peace talks with Ukraine and US (RT)

• Apollo will delay PE associate recruiting until IB analysts have at least one year of work experience (ES)

• Big PE LPs call for greater scrutiny of sweetheart deals (FT)

• Larry Page moved to $175M Miami home to avoid $15B California tax (FRT)

• Meta strikes deal to keep Zuck in California amid potential billionaire tax (RT)

• Trump says firms should pay 'dividend' to communities to make data centers popular (RT)

• Ken Griffin says AI is 'almost certainly' in a bubble (BBG)

• Scott Bessent shrugged off 'systemic' AI risks behind closed doors (FT)

• Surging yields bring biggest spate of debt sale delays this year (BBG)

• Tax-busting trades fuel rush for munis ETFs after fall selloff (BBG)

• Next AI debt wave is pushing credit swaps to new highs (BBG)

• Supermicro sees quarterly revenue soaring on AI server boom (RT)

• OpenAI president urges safeguards while group he funds opposes regulation (RT)

• Meta was fined $25B in New Mexico Cambridge Analytica case (CNBC)

• Kalshi could be headed for SCOTUS showdown (RT)

• eBay will cut 9% of jobs (RT)

• AI finds bug that puts 70% of the world's websites at risk (WSJ)

• Pope Leo will not need further cancer treatment (RT)

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Deal Flow

M&A / Strategic

• Musk wants to merge Tesla and SpaceX in a $3.7T deal before Trump's term ends

• Angola's state oil company Sonangol is open to raising its stake in Portugal's $19B-listed Banco Comercial Portugues if Chinese conglomerate Fosun International sells its holding

• Dutch paints maker Akzo Nobel is in early talks to sell its European vehicle refinishing business to gain regulatory clearance for its $19B merger with US peer Axalta Coating Systems

• CVC is exploring an LBO of $14B-listed Swedish security firm Verisure just one year after it was listed by H&F

• Australian infrastructure investor IFM Investors bought a majority stake in UK's largest port operator Associated British Ports from Canada's CPPIB and OMERS at an over $13.4B valuation

• EQT agreed to acquire European molecular testing company Qiagen for $12.1B, including debt, at a 40% premium

• London Stock Exchange Group is nearing a deal to acquire credit specialist Octus from UK PE firm Permira for $3.5B

• Thoma Bravo is reviving a $6.5B sale of consumer intelligence platform J.D. Power

• Drug distributor Cencora will acquire American Oncology Network in a $2.4B deal

• UK premium sportswear maker Castore is in talks about a possible sale after receiving interest from Chinese athletic apparel giants Anta Sports Products and Li-Ning; the firm was valued at $1.3B in 2023

• Lee Equity Partners and Coastwood ⁠Senior Housing Partners are exploring a $1B sale of Discovery Senior Living

• South Africa's Industrial Development Corp. agreed to takeover the South African unit of steel giant ArcelorMittal for $610M

• Taiwan blocked Grab Holdings' $600M takeover of Foodpanda's local unit

• US staffing firm Circle8 got a second extension to make a bid for $480M UK-listed recruiter SThree

• Spain's Autobuses de Leon offered to acquire UK bus firm National Express from transport operator Mobico for $378M at a 55% premium

• Warburg Pincus is considering a $300M sale of Chinese parking operator Sunsea Parking Industry Group

• Nvidia is in talks to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in Aussie data center firm Firmus following its collapsed IPO

• PE firms Bridgepoint, Bain Capital, and Aquiline are interested in acquiring Lovell Minnick Partners-backed UK wealth management firm W1M

• Blackstone and Apollo is in talks to join the list of approved PE firms who can invest in minority stakes in NFL teams

• Belgian steel wire business Bekaert is considering carving out its China business

• Chevron is exploring a sale of some ‌of its older Gulf of America assets

• German media group Axel Springer suggested a deal to acquire TikTok's Europe business

• Consumer audio giant Bose will acquire headphone maker Skullcandy

VC

• Chinese AI startup DeepSeek raised $15B in China's biggest ever VC funding round

• Legal AI startup Legora raised a $550M Series E at an $8.8B valuation led by Atreides Management

• All-in-one commerce platform Whop raised a $205M Series D at a $5.1B valuation led by Sequoia

• Peak Energy, a developer of passively cooled sodium-ion energy storage systems, raised a $108M oversubscribed Series B led by General Motors Ventures

• Vegafin Capital, an AI-focused business lending startup, raised $106M in a funding round led by Azim Premji's family office

• Blacksmith, a platform that helps companies build and test software including AI-written code, raised a $66M Series C at a $1B valuation led by Sequoia

• Watchtower Labs, an AI-native decision tools company for military operations, raised a $35M seed round led by Shield Capital and Conviction

• Mach9, an AI-powered CAD software startup, raised $34M Series A co-led by First Round Capital and Bessemer Venture Partners

• Hive, an event marketing platform for the live events industry, raised $27M in a Series B led by Frontier Growth

• IDL, the world's first global professional dance league, raised a $15M Series A led by Elysian Park Ventures

• Firstwork, a YC alumni AI onboarding startup, raised a $15M Series A led by Earlybird

• Dataline, a decentralized data network for AI agents, raised a $10.6M seed round co-led by Lattice and Dispersion Capital

• Pascal, a solid-state refrigeration startup, raised $8.5M in a follow-on to its seed round co-led by Sazze Partners and LB Investment

Access the complete VC deal flow and data on Fundable

IPOs / Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

• Healthcare giant Abbott Laboratories will spin off its $8.5B nutrition unit, which includes brands like Pedialyte and Ensure

• Singapore's DayOne Data Centers may delay or cut the size of its US IPO to $2.5B-$3B

• Danish brewer Carlsberg is preparing to publicly file for a $700M India IPO of its India unit

• Indonesian miner Merdeka Gold Resources plans to raise $560M in an Indonesia share sale

• Nigeria's Dangote Industries bought a 25% stake in Kenya Pipeline Co. for $327M

• Indian tech and contract manufacturing firm VVDN Technologies is considering a $300M India IPO

• LatAm airline group Abra Group will delay its IPO to next year

SPAC / SPV

• Korean entertainment platform Korai Flix will merge with ‌APEX Tech Acquisition in US in a $3.5B deal

Debt

• Italian lender Intesa Sanpaolo is working on SRTs tied to $6B in assets

• Ken Griffin, Vornado Realty Trust, and Rudin landed a $3.3B construction loan for a new office tower on Manhattan's Park Avenue

• JDS Development is in talks for a $1.1B refinancing to rescue its stalled Mercedes-Benz Places tower in Miami

• Aussie lithium miner PLS Group sold $700M of dollar junk bonds

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

• Telecoms firm Optimum Communications is close to a restructuring agreement with lenders including Apollo, Oaktree, and JPMorgan that will hand them control and resolve litigation

• Getty Images filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy with plans in place to go private

• Bracebridge Capital filed an involuntary petition for a Chapter 11 against a unit of Brazilian petrochemicals firm Braskem

• The billionaire owner of bottled water company Highland Spring was hit by defaults and enforcement actions from creditors across his heavily indebted real estate empire

Funds / Secondaries

• Private markets investor Pantheon raised $6B for its eighth PE secondaries fund

• Real estate PE firm Northwind raised $1B for its third real estate credit fund

Crypto Sum Snapshot

• Crypto exchanges race to offer prediction markets to US customers

• Tokenized stock trading takes off overseas as Goldman and other US firms object

Crypto Sum compiles the most important stories on everything crypto. Read it here.

Exec's Picks

• ICYMI: Golub Capital selected F2 to power its next $100B in assets, rolling out the agentic operating system firm-wide to secure a strategic advantage in direct lending. Try a demo.

• In honor of GTA VI releasing next month, check out this re-imagined video of GTA San Andreas. Totally not what you expect.

• WSJ shared four financial lessons that people can learn from the $6B hedge fund divorce captivating Wall Street. Seemingly obvious but clearly some people need the reminder.

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