04/02/2026 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 04/02/2026 00:49
Nike (NKE) stock has fallen by 26.8% in less than a month, from $61.01 on 2nd Mar, 2026 to $44.63 now. What comes next? We think that the stock could fall even more. The current correction, when put in context of our Unattractive opinion of the stock, suggest possibility of further downside. A price of $31 is not out of question, especially considering that the stock has seen this level in the last 5 years. Read Buy or Sell Nike Stock to see how we arrive at this opinion.
So should you wait before buying this dip? Perhaps. There is no perfect way to time the dips. Nevertheless, here is another perspective on NKE stock to help you make the decision. Historically, the median return for the 12-month period following sharp dips was 7.1%, with median peak return reaching 33%. We define sharp dip as stock going down 20% or more, in less than 30 day period.
Below, we get into details of historical dips and subsequent returns.
Trefis: NKE Stock Insights
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
| Period | Past Median Return |
| 1M | 4.9% |
| 3M | 20.8% |
| 6M | 14.8% |
| 12M | 7.1% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
NKE had 6 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -20% within 30 days was triggered
| 30 Day Dip | NKE Subsequent Performance | |||||||
| Date | NKE | SPY | 1Y |
Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 7% | 33% | -17% | 120 | ||||
| 4012026 | -31% | -6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0 | ||
| 4032025 | -28% | -12% | -18% | 44% | -18% | 116 | ||
| 7082024 | -21% | 5% | 2% | 23% | -26% | 81 | ||
| 9302022 | -28% | -16% | 16% | 56% | 0% | 124 | ||
| 5112022 | -22% | -15% | 13% | 21% | -23% | 266 | ||
| 3122020 | -25% | -24% | 91% | 100% | -15% | 305 | ||
1Y Refers to 1 year or time since recent dip, whichever is smaller
Nike Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | -5.0% | Fail |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | -1.7% | Fail |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 6.6% | Pass |
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