Two-Thirds of Americans Oppose National Abortion and IVF Bans, According to New UMass Amherst/League of Women Voters Poll

Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll.

AMHERST, MA -With reproductive issues central to campaign messaging and voters' decision-making as Americans cast their ballots in the 2024 elections, a new national University of Massachusetts Amherst/League of Women Voters Poll finds that two-thirds of Americans oppose potential national bans on abortion and in vitro fertilization (IVF).

The poll, which was conducted Oct. 11 - 16 and included an oversample of women, found that 65% of all respondents and women oppose a national abortion ban, with 54% of each group strongly opposed. Among all respondents, 66% oppose banning IVF with 50% strongly opposed, while 68% of women oppose banning IVF with 53% strongly opposed.

"These survey findings reaffirm what we have known since the Supreme Court's harmful decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization - women want the freedom to make personal health care decisions without government interference," says Celina Stewart, CEO of the League of Women Voters of the United States. "Women reject policies that strip away their constitutional rights and undermine their equity in our democracy. The League of Women Voters will continue to fight against federal and state threats to women's rights, ensuring that women have autonomy over their bodies, families, careers and lives."

"It's no surprise that 65% of women voters surveyed oppose a national abortion ban," said Dianna Wynn, president of the League of Women Voters of the United States. "The League supports all individuals who fear the dangerous consequences of government overreach on women's bodily autonomy. We will continue our fight to restore reproductive rights and uphold the principle that every individual deserves equal treatment within our democracy."

In the face of state and national efforts to outlaw and criminalize abortion and embryonic procedures, the poll instead found extensive support for policies that would codify reproductive rights and protect women and health care providers.

"In the years since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and thus restricted the national right of women to choose to have an abortion, in poll after poll, majorities of Americans and in particular women, have expressed support for a federal law or constitutional amendment that reestablishes, enshrines and protects this right," says Tatishe Nteta, provost professor of political science at UMass Amherst and director of the poll. "Our poll, fielded with our partners at the League of Women Voters, similarly finds majoritarian support for a constitutional amendment among the public at large (56%), women (57%), men (53%) and across generational, class, racial and educational groups. As states, both red and blue, decide to enshrine the right to an abortion in their state constitutions, the nation awaits whether the federal government will follow the will of the people or the preferences of a minority of Americans."

"A majority of Americans believe there should be a federal constitutional amendment that protects a woman's right to choose to have an abortion, and just 15% of our poll's respondents argue for a national abortion ban," says Raymond La Raja, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. "These figures are roughly equal for men and women, though African American women are somewhat more likely to prefer a federal amendment protecting abortion. Preferences vary strongly depending on one's ideological preferences - 92% of Americans who call themselves liberal favor a protective amendment versus just 21% of conservatives."

Alexander Theodoridis, associate professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll, shares this analysis. "In the post-Dobbs world, we find solid majority support for a full range of reproductive rights among most demographic subgroups, with the only real exceptions being respondents who identify as either Republican or conservative," Theodoridis says. "Majorities of men and women support amending the US Constitution to protect a woman's right to have an abortion, protecting national access to abortion pills and protecting providers and pharmacists from out-of-state legal actions and professional licensure consequences for providing reproductive health care services. About three-quarters of respondents support a federal law requiring emergency rooms to provide an abortion to save the life or health of a pregnant woman. On the flip side, only about 15% of Americans favor a national abortion ban. Our results across sex and other demographic subgroups suggest that describing reproductive rights as a 'women's issue' is far too narrow."

The survey also asked respondents about their own personal experiences regarding abortion, as well as those of their acquaintances, and half of female respondents (50%) indicated that they or someone they know have had an abortion. With some states now banning abortion, those states' residents seeking such procedures now need to cross state lines to find care.

"The Dobbs decision means people must seek abortions in other states," La Raja says. "Eight percent of female respondents said they or someone they know has had to do this. Moreover, the abortion issue has meant that some Americans know someone or they themselves have contemplated moving to another state because of their state's abortion laws, and more than 1 in 10 women tell us this."

As for IVF, the poll found a broad lack of support for banning the procedure.

"During the 2024 presidential campaign, some activists have kicked around pretty extreme proposals that would radically change Americans' family planning options," says Jesse Rhodes, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. "These are very unpopular - for example, only 9% of Americans support the idea of banning IVF, an important technology that has helped millions of Americans become parents."

Theodoridis agrees, saying, "The prospect of banning IVF, which has been thrust into the national discourse by a post-Dobbs Alabama Supreme Court decision, is universally unpopular, enjoying support from less than 10% of Americans overall and only 11% of Republicans."

More Support for Additional Healthcare and Family Policies

The University of Massachusetts Amherst/League of Women Voters Poll found additional public support for other health care and family-related policies, including paid family leave, increasing the child tax credit and various policies associated with the Affordable Care Act (ACA).

"Since the passage of the Affordable Care Act, critics have made the case that the ACA is unpopular among a broad swath of the public and needs retooling if not outright replacement," Nteta says. "While plans to do so remain in a conceptual phase, Americans are concrete in their overwhelming support for key pillars of the ACA. Seven in 10 Americans support the prohibitions on insurance companies from denying coverage to those with pre-existing medical conditions (70%) or to pregnant women (72%), and more than two-thirds are in favor of allowing young adults to stay on their parents' health insurance (67%). Again, we find these policies are popular across gender, generational, educational, class, partisan, ideological, racial and geographic groups in the nation, leading to questions as to why some are seeking to upend what has become a widely popular set of policy solutions to the problem of health care in the nation."

"'Obamacare' has been a political flashpoint since the enactment of the Affordable Care Act back in 2010," says Rhodes, "and key features of the ACA appear to have become part of the taken-for-granted background of health care policy in the United States. But the reality is that bipartisan majorities support many of the Act's important provisions."

Childcare policies are wildly popular among the poll's respondents, as well, Nteta and Rhodes say.

"Today's working adults are pulled in multiple directions at once, with responsibilities to children, parents, siblings, and extended family members, on top of career responsibilities," Rhodes says. "These obligations can be incredibly challenging to juggle, especially if a family member falls sick. Strikingly, Democrats and Republicans, as well as liberals and conservatives, agree that employers need to do more to help stressed-out employees. All of these groups strongly support requiring employers to provide paid leave to workers taking care of sick family members."

"The United States is alone among industrialized democracies to not have a national paid leave policy that provides employees the ability to care for newborn or adopted children or to care for family members with serious medical conditions," Nteta says. "While efforts to institute a national paid leave plan have consistently stalled in the US Congress, these policies are extremely popular among Americans, and in particular women, for whom the burden of caretaking has historically and disproportionately fallen. Close to 8 in 10 women support maternity leave and paid leave to care for sick family members, and 7 in 10 women support paternity leave. Across every demographic and political group we find majoritarian and even super majoritarian support for these paid leave policies, a rarity in an era rife with partisan, generational, racial and gender conflicts over social welfare policies. The American people, and women in particular, are seemingly speaking in one voice on this issue. Whether their elected representatives are listening and will respond remains to be seen."

"Balancing work and motherhood is incredibly challenging, and lack of access to paid leave time often forces new mothers out of the workforce for an extended period," Rhodes says. "This can undermine their career advancement - so necessary today, when most women need a good income to help their families get by - and even compromise their ability to care for their children. Americans are recognizing the need to support new mothers, and today there is a strong national majority in support of requiring employers to provide paid leave. Strikingly, in this era of extreme partisan polarization, support for this policy crosses party and ideological lines. This could be a policy area where Democrats and Republicans come together to make a real difference in the lives of women and their children."

Rhodes also notes the poll respondents' support for paid leave for new fathers.

"Americans increasingly recognize that men can - and should - play a large role in raising their children, and that they can and should help their partners as much as possible during the challenging early period with a new baby or adoptee," he says. "This is reflected in the fact that a majority of Americans support requiring employers to provide paid leave to new fathers. Although not quite as possible as paid family leave for new mothers, this policy also draws considerable support from Democrats and Republicans alike."

"With the cost of childcare skyrocketing and the number of high-quality facilities and caretakers dwindling, the affordability and accessibility of childcare has become one of the nation's most pressing challenges," Nteta says. "While efforts to address this problem have consistently failed in the US Congress, both presidential campaigns in recent months have pledged to tackle this problem head-on if elected in November. Our results suggest that a popular reform to this issue may be for the federal government to cap familial spending on childcare to no more than 7% of a family's total income. We find that 51% of respondents expressed support for this policy, with close to 6 in 10 women (58%) - on whose shoulders the burden for taking care of children largely falls - in favor of this change. Whether the federal government will take on this problem is still to be determined, but parents and caregivers across the nation who face this problem on a daily basis are hoping that they do."

"This proposed policy of capping childcare costs at 7% of a family's income enjoys a bare majority of popular support but divides Americans on partisan and ideological lines," Rhodes adds. "Hopefully, the conversation about what to do about high childcare costs will continue, so we can make progress on an issue that's critical for working parents."

Nteta notes, however, that the poll found stronger support for increasing the child tax credit to address the issue.

"In recent months, some candidates have claimed that the federal government has not centered American families in their policies and have pledged to do so if elected," he says. "A popular family-first policy that emerges from our polling is to increase the federal child tax credit from $2,000 to $5,000 per child with 6 in 10 Americans (61%) expressing support for this change to the nation's tax policy. While this policy is popular among parents (63%) it is also quite popular among non-parents (57%) as well which indicates the likely broad support for this policy change."

Methodology

This University of Massachusetts Amherst/League of Women Voters Poll was conducted by YouGov Oct. 11 - 16. YouGov interviewed 1,816 respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 1,500 to produce the final dataset. This consisted of two samples: A Main sample of 1,224 individuals from the U.S. general population matched down to 1,000, and an Oversample of 592 women from the U.S. general population matched down to 500.

Respondents in each sample were matched to a sampling frame on gender (main sample only), age, race and education. The sampling frame is a politically representative "modeled frame" of US adults, based upon the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote.

For the oversample of women respondents, this sampling frame was based on a women subset of the modeled frame of US adults. In each sample, the matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined, and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender (main sample only), race/ethnicity, years of education, region and home ownership (main sample only). The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles.

The weights for each sample were then post-stratified on 2020 presidential vote choice as well as a four-way stratification of gender (main sample only), age (4-categories), race (4-categories) and education (4-categories). Both samples were the combined and an additional post-stratification on gender, 2020 presidential vote and political party identification were conducted separately to produce an overall sample weight. In addition, a second weight was produced for the women in the overall sample (1,036). This was produced with a similar process.

The margin of error of this poll is 3.1% for all respondents and 3.8% for female respondents.

Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll.

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