Insight Guru Inc.
09/28/2026 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 09/28/2026 17:06
The Reason To Buy Autodesk Stock
Autodesk (ADSK) stock has fallen 23% since late August. A $10,000 holding bought at the high is now worth about $7,700. A fall that fast pulls you toward buying, but the shares still cost more than the market on earnings. The reason to buy is that past Autodesk drops this deep mostly paid off, and the business is still sound.
Why Did Autodesk Stock Fall After A Strong Quarter?
News reports tie the start of the fall to a profit outlook that disappointed, even though the quarter itself beat. The shares peaked on August 27, the day Autodesk reported its fiscal second-quarter results. Revenue and earnings per share both came in above the top of management's own guide.
Those reports said investors focused instead on a third-quarter adjusted profit forecast below Wall Street's estimates. Reuters added that investors worry about possible disruption from AI tools.
Autodesk's own price history shows how earlier drops like this one ended. Here, a dip means a fall of 20% or more within 30 trading days. For example, a $100 share that slides to $80 inside that window would count. Autodesk's latest fall is as deep as the drops in that record, so the record applies here.
Autodesk Dip Buyers Mostly Came Out Ahead
Most buyers of past Autodesk dips were ahead a year later. Not counting this drop, the stock had 11 dips since 2010, though the latest two are too recent to judge. Of the other nine, 7 ended the following year higher. The median return over that year was 26%, so half did better and half did worse.
Collecting that gain meant sitting through more losses first. After past dips, the stock fell a median of a further 12% before it turned. The median best gain within the year was 51%. It took a median of 307 days, about ten months, to get there.
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 6.8% |
| 3M | 13.2% |
| 6M | 8.5% |
| 12M | 25.6% |
| 30 Day Dip | ADSK Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | ADSK | SPY | 1Y |
Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 26% | 51% | -12% | 307 | ||||
| 6172026 | -23% | 2% | -3% | 71 | ||||
| 2052026 | -21% | -1% | -21% | 203 | ||||
| 9262022 | -21% | -14% | 10% | 26% | -1% | 50 | ||
| 2232022 | -20% | -9% | -8% | 12% | -21% | 173 | ||
| 3112020 | -23% | -16% | 78% | 107% | -12% | 307 | ||
| 1152016 | -23% | -9% | 59% | 65% | -14% | 328 | ||
| 10012015 | -21% | -7% | 68% | 68% | -1% | 363 | ||
| 5182012 | -27% | -7% | 21% | 37% | -0% | 308 | ||
| 8082011 | -24% | -11% | 26% | 51% | -17% | 239 | ||
| 6242011 | -20% | -6% | -11% | 16% | -36% | 284 | ||
| 6072010 | -22% | -13% | 51% | 72% | -10% | 339 | ||
[1] Dip event defined as first instance dip threshold is triggered within a 30-day time period.
Those results come from Autodesk's past, so they only help if the company under today's drop is still in good shape.
Is Autodesk's Business Still Sound Under The Drop?
Autodesk's business is sound, but you still pay more than the market for it. Revenue grew 17.9% over the past twelve months, faster than its three-year average of 14.4% a year. Its largest segment, Architecture, Engineering, Construction and Operations, grew 22% in fiscal 2026.
Autodesk also keeps more of each sale than the market as a whole. Its operating margin, the share of revenue left after its costs, was 28%, against 18.6% for the S&P 500. Operating cash flow came to 37% of revenue over the past year.
The price is the catch. Autodesk trades at 33.1 times its past year's earnings, against 22.1 for the S&P 500. So you pay about 50% more for each dollar of Autodesk's profit than for the market's.
Profit is also where the one complication shows up. In August, management raised its fiscal 2027 revenue outlook, which now includes MaintainX, a company Autodesk has already acquired. Management also lowered its guide for the operating margin under standard accounting to 25% to 27%, from 27%. Management said the MaintainX acquisition dilutes margins.
Autodesk's next report is expected in late November. For the fiscal third quarter, management guided adjusted earnings per share of $3.04 to $3.09.
The reason to buy Autodesk now needs the record to repeat and the business to hold up. Adjusted earnings per share below that range in November would break the business half of it. A result inside or above the range would leave it standing for now. Even a buyer who is right should expect the stock to fall further first. After past dips, the median further fall was 12%.
How To Act On ADSK?
Insight Guru Inc. published this content on September 28, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed via Public Technologies (PUBT), unedited and unaltered, on September 28, 2026 at 23:06 UTC. If you believe the information included in the content is inaccurate or outdated and requires editing or removal, please contact us at [email protected]