India’s electricity demand grows at night: Managing rising cooling demand

India is also investing in conventional and pumped-storage hydropower, but social, ecological and hydrological factors are limiting the potential and speed of development. Deploying greater amounts of wind power can also help, although wind speeds are generally lower during the summer months.

Theoretically, natural gas power plants are well-suited to meeting seasonal jumps in demand because of their low capital costs. However, global perceptions of the security of natural gas supplies are shifting following recent crises, and the market for natural gas turbines is highly constrained, with prices for turbines surging amid high demand. Even if India were to decide to invest in more natural gas power, it would not come online quickly.

On 21 May, India's coal power fleet provided 45 GW of ramping flexibility, reducing its output at midday to accommodate solar PV and increasing it in the evening as solar PV generation faded. The coal fleet achieved a maximum power output of nearly 92% of available capacity, proving critical to meet the nighttime jump in demand. As it increasingly plays a role in system flexibility and capacity adequacy, the use of coal as a baseload power source - one with high and constant output - is receding in India. As a result, emissions from coal are set to rise more slowly than coal power capacity additions. Around 40 GW of new coal capacity is currently under construction.

Continued implementation of stringent air conditioner efficiency standards and building efficiency codes in India - along with measures that support behavioural changes, such as those promoted by the Lifestyle for Environment (LiFE) programme - will be important, too. IEA analysis indicates that these kinds of interventions could reduce peak demand growth in India by as much as one-quarter over the medium term.

India's electricity system planning is also subject to several uncertainties. These include the possible impact of increasing extreme temperatures on the timing and scale of cooling demand, and on energy asset performance and availability; the growth rate of air conditioner sales, and when and how households use them; and the outlook for deploying technologies such as batteries and long-duration storage.

For India, an integrated approach - one that considers demand, supply and the resilience of the electricity system to a changing climate - is critical. IEA analysis highlights that the effects of extreme temperatures on demand, supply and asset availability could significantly erode reserve margins in power systems around the world. For this reason, the IEA has invested significant resources in integrating its modelling capacities across each of these domains and stands ready to extend and deepen its cooperation with Indian institutions on this important challenge.