How Risky Is Ondas Stock

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Ondas (ONDS) stock lost 18.8% in the month to October 21, 2026, a period when the S&P 500 was roughly flat. The shares now sit 55.2% below their highest close of the past year, set in January. So how has Ondas stock held up in past market shocks, when the whole market fell?

How Has Ondas Stock Done In Past Market Shocks?

During most past market shocks, Ondas stock has fallen much further than the S&P 500, sometimes needing well over a year to recover. Across the seven shocks since 2018, including late 2018 when Ondas had only just begun trading, the stock fell 38.1% on average, against 16.4% for the S&P 500. The largest drop among them occurred during the summer-fall 2023 yield shock, when the stock lost 80.1% while the S&P 500 lost 9.5%. In the most recent market shock, the 2025 US tariff shock, the stock surrendered 52.7%, compared with 18.8% for the index.

Recovery times have varied widely. Ondas began trading on November 15, 2018, partway through the late-2018 shock, and it never closed below its first-day price during that shock. From the lowest close in each of the other six falls, the shares required a median of 6.5 months to return to their peak. Two of those six recoveries took more than a year to complete. The longest ran about 35 months following the 2022 inflation shock, extending to October 2025 in a climb that absorbed the 2023 yield shock along the way.

Ondas Is Growing Fast But Still Losing Money

Ondas is a far larger business than it was a year ago. Revenue in the June 2026 quarter was more than 13 times its level a year earlier, management said on the company's August 13, 2026 call. Almost all of its revenue last year came from a single unit. Ondas Autonomous Systems supplied 98.1% of revenue in fiscal 2025, up from 73.1% in fiscal 2024.

The company still loses more on its operations than it takes in, posting an operating margin of -171.6% in the June 2026 quarter, against -147.5% a year earlier. Ondas does hold plenty of cash, finishing June with about $1.4 billion in cash and short-term investments, up from $67.6 million a year earlier. Its debt was 0.427% of its market value, against 19.7% for the S&P 500.

What Risks Did Ondas Management Flag In August?

Management expects the company's gross margin to come under pressure. On the August 13 call, executives said they anticipate some gross margin pressure in the second half of 2026 because of product mix and excess capacity from recent acquisitions. The reported gross margin fell to 43.1% in the June quarter from 49.2% in the March quarter, though management's adjusted measure, which leaves out some non-cash costs, held near 50%.

Costs are set to rise as well. Ondas spent about $325 million in cash in the third quarter to complete the DZYNE and Cyberhawk acquisitions, and management said adding DZYNE will bring a step-up in operating expenses.

The largest open question is timing. Management guided third-quarter revenue to between $140 million and $155 million, compared with $83.8 million in the June quarter. It also expects to leave 2026 at $1 billion in annualized revenue, but only if the company delivers the fourth-quarter ramp it has planned. Management noted on the call that Ondas faces supply chain challenges on new programs and that it is hard to predict exactly which quarter some deliveries will land in. When Ondas next reports, expected in November 2026, third-quarter revenue against that guide will be the result to watch.

Does This Mean You Should Act On ONDS?

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