Beyond the Unemployment Rate: A Structural Labor Market Indicator

August 2026

Beyond the Unemployment Rate: A Structural Labor Market Indicator

Isabel Cairó, Hess Chung, Francesco Ferrante, Cristina Fuentes-Albero, Camilo Morales-Jimenez, and Damjan Pfajfar

Abstract:

Labor market variables frequently send conflicting signals about the degree of slack or tightness, often complicating policy assessments at critical junctures. This paper develops a Structural Labor Market Indicator (SLMI) for the U.S. economy that addresses the limitations of existing univariate measures or atheoretical statistical approaches that synthesize multiple labor market indicators but cannot distinguish between supply and demand driving forces. We construct the SLMI using a medium scale New Keynesian DSGE model featuring search and matching frictions, endogenous labor force participation, and variable hours. The model is disciplined by a comprehensive dataset that includes not only labor market variables but also other macroeconomic aggregates. The SLMI synthesizes model-implied gaps across multiple labor market dimensions using principal component analysis. We show that GDP growth and inflation provide substantial information about labor market slack beyond what labor market variables contain, validating our multi-variable structural approach. Relative to alternative measures, the SLMI often provides earlier warnings of deteriorating conditions at recession onset but recovers more gradually during expansions.

Keywords: Search and matching, labor market, labor market slack

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2026.058

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