Updated advisory note 'Caution Required When Navigating in Arctic Waters' issued by PAME and the Arctic Regional Hydrographic Commission

Underpinning the climate changes in the Arctic is the fact the region is warming faster than anywhere else on Earth, and PAME's work has documented some of the consequences for the marine environment. In your view, what are the most pressing ways climate change is reshaping Arctic shipping?

I would highlight three key ways. First, changing ice conditions are opening up potential shipping routes. Second, this is leading to increasing interest in access to resources, trade diversification, and new markets and partnerships. And third, changing ice patterns are making weather more unpredictable, potentially increasing hazards to navigation.

These changing ice conditions, including retreating sea ice, is often portrayed as simply opening up the Arctic, making it more accessible and easier to navigate. The cautionary note challenges that assumption. Can you explain why a warming Arctic can actually introduce new navigational hazards, rather than remove them?

As ice conditions change, there is actually less predictability and increased risk of drifting multi-year ice. Ice continues to pose a risk. And while areas where ships can travel may open up, this introduces new potential for ships to enter areas that have been less traveled, and therefore remain uncharted to modern standards. Simply because a channel or area may appear free of ice does not mean it is safe to go there. You may not know what lies beneath, invisible to the human eye, or you may think you are in one-year ice and suddenly encounter drifting multi-year ice, which is thicker, more resilient, and has higher potential for significant damage. The changing ice context is a key factor and is further complicated by the reality that we do not have all of the Arctic charted to modern standards. We have seen a number of groundings in recent years, typically caused when vessels travel off the beaten path.

Climate change doesn't just affect the ice on the surface, it is also transforming the seabed and coastlines themselves. How does a rapidly changing physical environment affect the work of hydrographers, and what does that mean for the reliability of existing charts?

Shorelines and coastlines can change with rising sea levels through coastal erosion and other phenomena, increasing the need to rechart and redefine coastlines. Some charts we create may be good for generations, but with changing shorelines and sea level rises, there comes a point where a chart must be substantially updated. There can also be impacts to depths and vertical datums, leading to a need to adjust more frequently. In Canada, for example, we have been looking at how to address this challenge by expanding our water level network in the North. As the system evolves, there is potential for future S-100 services to help us adapt to these changes by providing more frequent updates and near real-time data in the hands of mariners.

The advisory points to the fact that large parts of the Arctic still lack reliable, modern hydrographic data. For someone who has never thought about what it means to navigate uncharted waters, can you put that risk into plain terms?

Quite simply, you are navigating blindly. Even in deep water, an obstacle can appear before you and you may not have time to react, putting yourself, your crew, and your vessel at risk. This could lead to loss of human life, an environmental disaster should pollutants enter the water, or significant economic impact from cleanup efforts. If groundings increase, insurance costs go up, and ultimately that cost is passed on to consumers as well. Mariners are ultimately responsible for their vessels and should not navigate in areas where they do not have the information to do so safely.

New technology is often seen as the answer to safety challenges, and 2026 marks the introduction of next-generation S-100 electronic chart systems authorized by the IMO, something PAME has been following closely through the Arctic Shipping Best Practice Information Forum. Does better technology mean safer Arctic navigation?

Generally, yes, better technology should lead to safer navigation. However, the Arctic is a unique region. Until there is reliable, fail-safe communications capability in the North, mariners will have to continue to take additional precautions with backup measures and rely on their experience and knowledge. S-100 is being deployed in southern waters, but it will take time to implement in the Arctic as we need to gather more modern data first. Countries are focusing S-100 delivery where there is the highest traffic, highest risk, and best data, which at the moment is tied to major port approaches and high-transit corridors. As mariners become accustomed to high-tech navigation systems in southern waters, we will need to manage expectations until the North can offer a similar level of service. Technology is only one component of Arctic navigation, the skill, judgment, and training of mariners sailing in the North will remain critical.