Weekly Round Up, 14th September 2026

Weekly Round-Up, 14th September 2026

It was an interesting week, with crude having another strong week, the ECB hiking rates, US inflation data surprising on the upside, and a Q2 earnings report from Oracle.

Last week

• The ECB hiked rates by 25bps as inflation pressures increase from the Middle East conflict
• UK July GDP came in marginally better than expected at 0.4% MoM, vs 0.3% forecast
• Oil finished the week up another 10% after US escalation and Iranian retaliation
• US core inflation surprised marginally; 0.3% MoM vs 0.2% expected

This week

• It's a big week for central banks; the Fed, BOE, and BOJ all meet to set interest rates
• The main event is the Fed late on Wednesday; markets are pricing a 60-70% chance of a hike
• UK CPI is also on Wednesday, expected to rise by 0.1% to 3% at the headline level
• The BOE MPC then meets Thursday from which there seems to be no expectation for a change in rates
• Finally, the BOJ meets Friday where a hike is expected; this has in recent history, come with the prospect of volatility so brace yourselves for a market reaction

Source: Bloomberg. Currencies: GBP.

More details

Global equities fell in the latter half of the week as the conflict in the Middle East escalated. The US destroyed a number of Iranian oil tankers, which is not only an escalation, but directly applies upward pressure to the oil price.

Friday brought hopes of calm as Gulf states consider meeting with Iranian officials to discuss the future of the Strait of Hormuz. It would be the first meeting of the six-strong Gulf Cooperation Council since the start of the war. There is nothing to say if this is progress or even positive, but markets have taken it as a good sign with equities and bonds recovering a little on the day.

UK stocks fell 1.7% on the week. Although a mildly positive July GDP report may have provided a positive Friday, other Western markets also recovered on hopes of deescalation in the Gulf.

Bonds had another challenging week. Gilts fell in aggregate as longer rates rose, but the curve has steepened suggesting that our bond market is more worried about the long term than short. The positive but weak GDP report was followed by quiet calls for rate cuts, and it seems that markets think the same with lower short end rates.

The ECB hiked rates this week as expected, but any impact likely got lost in the other news driven by Middle East. However, it is aligned to the bond market sell off we are experiencing, and Lagarde set the stage for more hikes as she sees inflation to be longer-lasting than anticipated.

The Fed meets on Wednesday. Markets see a 60-70% chance of a hike as inflation pressures are mounting in the US too. Fridays CPI report saw core inflation tick up by 0.1% which makes it difficult to justify cutting rates, despite what the President might say.

The BOE MPC then meets on Thursday. Markets do not seem to expect a hike, but the ECB and potentially the Fed doing so likely raises the pressure to follow suit. Wednesdays UK inflation data might help decide this however, and like all central banks currently, the BOE is also data led. This uncertainty creates room for disappointment as there are reasons to cut or hike, and markets don't seem to have worked out which they think the MPC should do.

The final central bank meeting of the week is the BOJ. Recent history has told us that markets don't like higher Japanese rates. We would hope by now the direction of travel is well understood, but this doesn't guarantee that markets won't have a wobble. If its not taken well, currency likely reflects it best, and a stronger yen is good for our exposure, which is useful for portfolio construction when bonds and equities are experiencing positive correlation.

Oracle reported after hours Thursday, beating revenue and profit forecasts, and reporting an increasing order book and backlog. Earnings guidance was increased but so was capex as the AI arms race continues. Adobe also delivered positive results as a bellwether of generative AI, and TSMC reported record revenue at 53% growth over the year, and 10% month-on-month.

This backdrop poses headwinds for asset prices, but we still believe there are robust fundamental drivers underlying equities. Bonds are more challenging as they reflect economic news more directly, so we stay short duration to avoid volatility in the long end, and clip higher coupons in the high-grade corporate space.

Much of this is also not new news. Any positive developments would be well received by the market and likely commensurately better than bad news, and this week could be a great example of markets climbing the wall of worry. [GH1.1]Given underlying fundamentals, and our positioning, we are comfortable that we are appropriately positioned for this market backdrop.

The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you could get back less than you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The content of this article is not intended to be or does not constitute investment research as defined by the Financial Conduct Authority. The content should also not be relied upon when making investment decisions, and at no point should the information be treated as specific advice. The article has no regard for the specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any specific client, person, or entity.

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About the Author

Benjamin Benson is Head of Fund Research at Magnus Fund Management. He brings with him over a decade of experience across fund research and portfolio management, most recently at Aberdeen and previously as Head of Investment Research at AFH.