What Was KLA Telling You Before Its Stock Ran

KLA (KLAC) stock returned 73.6% over the twelve months to October 7, 2026, easily outpacing the 17.1% gain for the S&P 500. The company sells chipmaking tools, and this market run ultimately centered on semiconductor makers spending to produce chips for artificial intelligence. How early did that demand show up in what KLA said and reported?

KLA's Revenue Gains Widened Across Four Reports

The earliest signal emerged on July 24, 2024. That was more than a year before the stock run began on October 6, 2025. During the earnings call for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2024, which ended in June, executives noted that the business had transitioned from stabilizing back to growing again. Shareholders then had the opportunity to test that claim against every subsequent report.

The financial results quickly validated that claim. The company filed its report for that quarter on August 5, 2024, revealing that sales were up 9.1% from a year earlier. That growth accelerated to 18.5% in the fiscal first quarter of 2025 and hit 23.7% in the second. By the time KLA filed its report for the fiscal third quarter of 2025 on May 1, 2025, revenue growth reached 29.8%. Across those same four quarters, the operating margin for KLA widened from 38.0% to 42.5%.

The connection to artificial intelligence became public by April 30, 2025. On that day, KLA forecast revenue and profit above Wall Street estimates. Reuters subsequently tied that forecast to demand for chips that support AI workloads.

Yet KLA maintained a cautious tone. During that April 30 call, executives warned of global trade uncertainty and postponed their scheduled Investor Day to 2026. A few months later, on the July 31, 2025 call, the company reported lower demand from China. The sales growth was entirely visible to the market, but the company reporting those numbers continued to sound wary.

KLA Stock Climbed While Sales Pace Trailed Fiscal 2025

The subsequent stock run actually occurred while top-line expansion trailed the pace KLA established in fiscal 2025. For its fiscal fourth quarter of 2026, the company reported record revenue of $3.66 billion, up 15% from a year earlier. That expansion lagged the 29.8% growth achieved in the fiscal third quarter of 2025. It also trailed the 23.6% growth recorded in the fourth, which appeared in the final report KLA filed on August 8, 2025, just before the run began.

The outlook regarding what chipmakers will spend did eventually improve, though that shift happened late in the run. On the July 28, 2026 call, the company raised its estimate of chipmakers' equipment spending in calendar 2026 to the low $150 billion range. The earlier estimate from KLA was $140 billion plus. Executives also noted that accelerating investment in AI infrastructure supported the record quarter.

KLA also trailed its peers during this period. Applied Materials, Lam Research and Onto Innovation each more than doubled over the same twelve months. This widespread rally suggests that investors repriced the whole group.

Is KLA Regaining Its Earlier Sales Pace?

The answer is partly. Revenue growth had slowed to 7.2% in the fiscal second quarter of 2026 before it recovered to 11.5% in the third. The 15% growth recorded in the fourth quarter extended that recovery without matching the pace of fiscal 2025.

The company forecast revenue of $4 billion, plus or minus $200 million, for the September 2026 quarter. That compares against the $3.66 billion it reported for the June quarter. Executives provided that forecast on the July 28 call for a quarter that has now ended, and its final results are still to come. However, KLA stock has not risen in tandem with that outlook. Instead, the stock fell 14.1% over the past three months, a stretch that includes the July 28 call, while the S&P 500 gained 3.7%.

Revenue at or above $4 billion when KLA reports its September quarter would demonstrate that the demand management describes is reaching its sales.

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