Uncertainty keeps pump prices high and volatile for road transport sector

On 24 April 2026, Brent was trading above USD 105 a barrel despite the indefinite extension of the US-Iran ceasefire announced on 21 April. Diesel pump prices in the EU fell week on week, but stabilised over the last few days, marking a halt to the downward trend. Here is the latest overview for the road transport sector.

• Brent is up around 17% week on week
• Germany's Bundestag approved the EUR 14.04 cent per litre energy-tax cut on 23 April
• Canada's federal fuel-excise suspension is live since 20 April, worth CAD 2.4 billion in relief through 7 September
• North Macedonia reverted its diesel VAT to 18% from 22 April, the first national reversal of a pump-relief measure since the crisis began

Oil markets and supply

Brent crude closed at USD 105 a barrel on 23 April, up around 17% from the post-ceasefire low near USD 90 on 17 April and 44% above the USD 73 baseline of 27 February. WTI, the US benchmark, settled at USD 96 a barrel on the same day, recovering from below USD 83 during the 17 April relief rally. Both benchmarks climbed on 22 and 23 April as the indefinite ceasefire extension on 21 April was not accompanied by any easing of the Strait's blockade.

Strait of Hormuz transit volumes are running some 15-18% below the March baseline. Around 600 vessels, including roughly 325 tankers, remain stranded in the Gulf. Even under an immediate and sustained reopening, IEA analysts expect the restoration of pre-war crude flows to take several weeks, with approximately 20% of the damaged production capacity across the region unlikely to be recovered in the short to medium term.

Another crucial point according to Rystad analysts, for the first four weeks of the crisis, pre-war surplus, crude-on-water, policy barrels, and floating storage absorbed the shock, masking its true severity. Those buffers are now exhausted, meaning that the next incremental shock could translate directly into price, with no absorption left.

On the other side of the equation, Hungary confirmed that the Druzhba pipeline had returned to commercial flow after Ukrtransnafta completed repairs. MOL Group's Százhalombatta refinery was back at nominal throughput within 24 hours and Hungarian wholesale diesel quotations eased HUF 8 to 12 per litre on the day, the first downward move in Hungarian wholesale prices since 9 March.

The European Commission estimated on 21 April that the EU has paid an additional EUR 22 billion in fossil-import costs in the 44 days since the start of the Iran blockade.

OPEC+ remains in a holding pattern. The eight-country quota group will meet on 3 May to decide whether to roll the 206,000 barrel per day May increment into June or pause. Goldman Sachs now sees Q2 Brent averaging USD 95, with a tail scenario above USD 120 if the Strait of Hormuz is still throttled at the end of May. JP Morgan has lifted its Q2 central case to USD 100.

Pump prices

US national average diesel price reached USD 1.48 per litre on 23 April, up around 41% since 27 February. Despite growing pressure from several state governors, the US has not suspended or reduced the federal diesel excise tax, and there is no US equivalent of the European-style operator rebate scheme.

The Brent-WTI spread has widened back to around USD 9 a barrel, with domestic crude pulling into US refinery runs to partly offset Middle East shortfalls.

In Canada, the government reduced the federal excise duty on diesel by CAD 0.04 per litre from 20 April to 7 September 2026. The measure is valued at CAD 2.4 billion in relief and is the largest single fiscal response to the crisis in North America. It should be noted that provincial excise duties are still in place.

In the EU, retail diesel averaged EUR 1.977 per litre, down from EUR 2.07 on 13 April, the first week-on-week decline since the start of March. However, since Brent exceeded USD 100 per barrel on 22 April, the downward trend stopped and prices are now stabilising.

The Netherlands retains the highest pump price at EUR 2.294 per litre, followed by Finland, Denmark, France and Germany, while Malta remains unchanged at EUR 1.210 per litre thanks to its regulated price structure. Excluding Malta, Spain and Poland have the cheapest average prices at the pump. The cheapest-to-most-expensive spread (excluding Malta) is now EUR 0.58 per litre, narrowing slightly from the 17 April value of EUR 0.67 but still historically wide.

Announcements of new or revised national measures have accelerated sharply this week.

Germany - the Bundestag voted on 23 April to approve the CDU/CSU-SPD coalition's 2. Energiesteuersenkungsgesetz, cutting diesel excise by EUR 14.04 cents per litre for the period 1 May to 30 June. The measure will cost the federal budget EUR 1.6 billion and is paired with the previously announced "one-price-increase-per-day" retail rule in force since 1 April. The Bundesrat is meeting in Sondersitzung on 24 April to finalise passage.

Sweden - the Riksdag enacted the Vårbudget fuel-tax package on 22 April: diesel energy tax is down by SEK 319 per cubic metre (around SEK 0.40 per litre including VAT), in force from 1 May to 30 September.

Spain - Royal Decree-Law 9/2026, approved on 16 April, substantially strengthens operators' ability to pass through fuel cost increases in the invoicing of their transport services and makes that pass-through mandatory. On the labour front, the nationwide UGT FICA and CCOO Industria service-station strike that had been notified for 30 April and 3 May was called off on 23 April after unions and employers reached a preliminary agreement, including a 3.4% retroactive salary rise for 2025 and a further 2% increase for 2026, averting disruption during the Puente de Mayo weekend.

Portugal - the ISP discount on diesel has been cut by a further EUR 1.5 cents per litre for 20-26 April, bringing the cumulative pre-VAT reduction to EUR 6.8 cents per litre. The professional diesel rebate (+10 cents per litre) is unchanged through 30 June.

Outside the EU, Serbia's 25% excise reduction runs through 24 April and is expected to be rolled over for a further 14-day period. Montenegro's excise reduction and Albania's 20% cut are unchanged. Norway has zeroed its road-use tax on all fuels from 1 April through 1 September.

North Macedonia - in the first national reversal of a pump-relief measure since the crisis began, diesel VAT reverted to the standard 18% rate from 22 April.

In the UK, the GBP 0.5 per litre excise cut has been extended through 31 August. The government continues to rule out further fiscal measures despite analyst warnings of localised supply stress. AdBlue supply remains the secondary pressure point. Global urea prices have eased slightly from the March peak but remain above USD 694 per tonne, a 56% increase since 27 February.

AdBlue prices have jumped by 20% in Belgium, and natural-gas feedstock exposure through Qatar LNG (see next section) keeps the medium-term risk elevated. While AdBlue is less than 1% of overall TCO, shortages would be catastrophic for operators given its mandatory use in modern diesel fleets.

In Türkiye, diesel prices are down by 1% week on week, although up around 19% in Turkish lira since 27 February.

Chinese diesel is now around 28% above the pre-war baseline at roughly CNY 8.60 per litre. Beijing continues to prioritise domestic supply over state-owned refiner margins; export restrictions on refined products tightened again in early April. China is particularly exposed to the flow of crude through the Strait of Hormuz.

In India, diesel prices have been held close to pre-war levels by government-administered pricing. A US Treasury waiver continues to allow Iranian crude imports via the Chabahar transit route, which remains a material lifeline for Indian refiners, and export taxes on refined diesel and jet fuel keep supply anchored in the domestic market.

Brazilian retail diesel stands at BRL 7.43 per litre this week, up 23% on the BRL 6.08 baseline of 27 February. The government has maintained the PIS/Cofins zero rating on diesel and the BRL 0.32 per litre subsidy, while a 50% diesel export tax remains in force. Petrobras refinery-gate pricing has absorbed part of the crude spike without fully passing through. Localised shortages continue in the Centre-West.

In Mexico, diesel retail is, on average, at MXN 28.18 per litre, an 8% increase since 27 February. The Ministry of Finance has maintained its diesel stimulus at 43.17% (similar to an excise duty reduction). Bloomberg Línea reiterated on 21 April that since the start of this crisis, fuel subsidy costs have grown about twice as fast as additional oil-export revenue for the government.

Natural gas

Dutch TTF settled at EUR 44.5 per megawatt hour on 23 April, a 13% increase week on week after peaking at EUR 46.41 on 13 April. Price action this week has closely tracked Brent, with intraday spikes on fresh Strait of Hormuz headlines offsetting the modest relief from the Druzhba restart.

Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility, the world's largest, remains under force majeure following the Iran-linked disruption that began in early March. Approximately 17% of Qatar's total LNG capacity is currently offline. Full restoration is not expected before August 2026 at the earliest, and industry analysts caution that some of the damage could take three to five years to repair. LNG cargoes continue to be diverted to Asia as higher prices outbid Europe.

EU gas storage sits at around 31% full at the start of the injection season, the weakest starting position entering the injection season in at least four years. National divergence is sharp. The Netherlands remains the lowest in the EU at well below 10%, with Sweden, Croatia, Germany and Slovakia completing the bottom five. Goldman Sachs reiterated on 21 April that TTF is underpricing the disruption risk and could test EUR 75 to 100 per megawatt hour if flows remain suppressed beyond end-May.

Road transport impact

For EU operators, the combination of a cumulative 21% diesel price rise, a cross-border EU spread of EUR 0.58 per litre, AdBlue supply risks, and the continued absence of an EU-level fiscal package creates a uniquely challenging operating environment.

Spain's Royal Decree-Law 9/2026 is now the main operator-facing development of the week. By making the pass-through of fuel cost increases mandatory in transport service invoicing, and by establishing penalties for non-compliance, it moves Spain ahead of the pack on contractual protection for operators. The last-minute cancellation of the service-station strike on 23 April also removes a significant logistics risk over the Puente de Mayo weekend.

Operator action remains a live theme elsewhere. In Italy, the Trasportounito 144-hour national strike (20-25 April) was suspended on day one after a fatal accident on the A1 highway involving a driver participating in solidarity pickets, although Unatras permanent assemblies and pickets in around 100 cities continue.

In France, opérations escargot have continued through the week; the A8 at the Capitou toll barrier was blocked again on 22 April for the third time in seven days, and CGT-Transports has filed a strike notice for 5-6 May at TotalEnergies La Mède and Donges depots.

In Chile, Tarapacá truck operators continue Ruta 5 Norte blockades for a third consecutive day, with Valparaíso operators maintaining filtered actions on Ruta 68 and Ruta 60.

In Brazil, ABRAVA has formalised a fique em casa approach, with drivers refusing loads without physical blockades.

Australia remains the most advanced physical-shortage case among developed-country markets. The AIP Industry Supply Alert was upgraded to Level 2 on 21 April. National reserve cover stands at 38 to 39 days of petrol, 29 to 31 days of diesel and 24 days of jet fuel. Some 920 stations are reportedly without diesel. Energy Minister Bowen reiterated on 21 April that the formal rationing trigger (below 10 days of national cover) has not been breached. The National Farmers' Federation has repeated its warning of a 50% food-price knock-on if shortages extend past June.