CSIS - Center for Strategic and International Studies Inc.

06/10/2025 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 06/10/2025 08:31

Ukrainian Agriculture at Risk as the European Union's Liberalized Trade Measures Expire

Ukrainian Agriculture at Risk as the European Union's Liberalized Trade Measures Expire

Remote Visualization

Analysis by Joseph Glauber, Caitlin Welsh, and Emma Dodd

Published June 10, 2025

The expiration of wartime trade exemptions by the European Commission on Ukrainian food imports could compound challenges for Ukrainian producers, who are now facing their fourth-straight growing season in wartime conditions.

  1. Following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the European Union temporarily lifted import quotas to Ukraine through the Autonomous Trade Measures (ATM) Regulation. As a result, Ukrainian agricultural exports to the bloc surged from below 30 percent of its total exports prior to the invasion to over 50 percent as of 2024.
  2. This surge in exports has become a point of contention for several EU member states, particularly those bordering Ukraine, such as Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia. In these countries, the rapid increase in Ukrainian imports has depressed local prices and heightened cost pressures for barge and rail services.
  3. Reinstating prewar import quotas would likely cause immediate and considerable harm to Ukrainian producers, who have relied on the European Union for export support throughout the past three wartime growing seasons. Sustained trade access to EU markets is critical-not only for Ukraine's economic recovery, but also for the resilience of the global food system-as Ukraine remains one of the world's key agricultural suppliers.

CSIS Charts is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).

© 2025 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved.

Tags

Ukraine, Europe, Trade and International Business, Food Security, and Ukraine War
Image

Joseph Glauber

Senior Adviser (Non-resident), Global Food and Water Security Program
Image

Caitlin Welsh

Director, Global Food and Water Security Program
Image

Emma Dodd

Research Associate, Global Food and Water Security Program

Programs & Projects

  • Global Food and Water Security Program
  • Global Development

Related Content

Image

Blueprint for an Agricultural Recovery Plan for Ukraine

Report by Antonina Broyaka, Vitalii Dankevych, Emma Dodd, and Caitlin Welsh - June 4, 2025

Does Ukraine Need a New Black Sea Grain Initiative?

Remote Visualization
Interact
CSIS Charts - March 28, 2025
Image

Fracturing Solidarity: The Grain Trade Dispute between Ukraine and the European Union

Critical Questions by Emma Dodd and Caitlin Welsh - February 20, 2024

CSIS - Center for Strategic and International Studies Inc. published this content on June 10, 2025, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed via Public Technologies (PUBT), unedited and unaltered, on June 10, 2025 at 14:31 UTC. If you believe the information included in the content is inaccurate or outdated and requires editing or removal, please contact us at [email protected]