New National Academy of Sciences Climate Attribution Report Underscores How Climate Change Fuels Extreme Weather

WASHINGTON (July 16, 2026)-The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) released a report today synthesizing decades of climate attribution research that underscores how heat-trapping emissions from burning fossil fuels makes different types of extreme weather more likely and/or severe. NAS conducted an overview of events like extreme heat, drought, wildfires, tropical cyclones and convective storms. They also touch on event impact attribution, the leading edge of the field that quantifies how climate change has contributed to specific harms like increased human mortality and economic losses.

The report and its contributors have been attacked by the fossil fuel industry in the lead up to today's release, the latest in a coordinated campaign by Big Oil to undermine climate science and intimidate scientists. Companies like BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil and Shell are facing mounting lawsuits aiming to hold them accountable for the climate damages caused by their decades-long disinformation campaign. In April, U.S. Senator Ted Cruz and Representative Harriet Hageman introduced a bill offering sweeping immunity from liability to these major climate polluters.

Below is a statement by Dr. Carly Phillips, senior scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) and co-author of multiple attribution studies, including on forest fires in the western United States and global sea level rise.

"Attribution science confirms what billions of people around the world have experienced firsthand-deadly events like extreme heatwaves are occurring more often and tropical cyclones are more intense due to climate change. Despite efforts by the fossil fuel industry and its cronies to intimidate panelists and misrepresent the research, the Academies' report affirms the scientific consensus: attribution science is based on rigorous peer reviewed methods and provides critical information about how climate change is driving increases in the frequency and/or severity of extreme events.

"This robust research field provides key evidence to hold the fossil fuel industry accountable for its role in driving climate change. Congress must not grant Big Oil immunity for climate deception and the harms they knowingly caused that attribution science makes evident. Communities deserve their day in court and no one-including fossil fuel companies that have profited at the expense of people and the planet-should be above the law."

The attack on attribution science is part of a larger effort supported by the Trump administration to eliminate states' and communities' ability to hold the fossil fuel industry accountable for its role in the climate crisis, particularly through the courts.

EPA Administrator Zeldin's attack on the Endangerment Finding, a foundational scientific finding that global warming emissions endanger public health and the environment and thus must be regulated by the EPA, also included baseless attacks on attribution science.

Additional UCS resources:

• Peer-reviewed study tracing fossil fuel companies' contribution to climate change and ocean acidification
• Peer-reviewed study attributing climate change and sea level rise to fossil fuel companies
• Blog post explaining attribution science
• Blog post on accurately communicating about attribution science