Navigating Holiday Volatility: What Recent Wine and Spirits Trends Signal for Year-End

As the industry enters the critical holiday stretch, recent depletion trends have raised key questions about retailer behavior, shipment timing, and the outlook for the remainder of the year. The past three months have been shaped largely by timing effects, leaving suppliers increasingly reliant on a strong finish to 2025.

October showed a mixed performance across categories: Spirits recorded a modest +3.7% volume increase, while Wine declined -2.1%. For November, the industry will be cycling against exceptionally weak prior-year comps-last year Spirits fell -9.3% and Wine dropped -10.7%. In theory, such soft comparisons should make this November appear stronger. However, the key question now is whether any improvement will materialize or whether retail trade has delayed holiday buying, muting early-season demand despite the easier comparison setup.

This question became even more relevant as we entered November 2025, a month already challenging to predict. The calendar provides an added wrinkle: one fewer shipping day compared with 2024, tightening the window for retailers to finalize their holiday builds. At the same time, 2024's extremely weak comparisons may artificially inflate year-over-year performance-unless depletions fail to materialize. And with October 2025 already described as "soft," the pressure was building for a robust November and continues to build for December to stabilize full-year results.

Looking back at the 2024 holiday season provides helpful context. Spirits declined -4.6% in volume and -4.9% in revenue across November to December in 2024, while Wine fell -7.3% in volume and -5.9% in revenue. These moderate comparisons create an opportunity for improvement this year-if demand strengthens. However, ongoing points of distribution (PODs) declines, which tend to intensify during the holiday season, introduce another source of uncertainty.

Amid the volatility, several product classes warrant close attention. Irish Whiskey, which enjoyed strong momentum earlier in the year, experienced a surprisingly weak October, raising questions about sustainability. Tequila continues to fragment growth in Reposado, and "Other" styles, but is being offset by declines in Añejo and Silver. Across Wine, many are watching to see whether any Table Wine segments can finally push into positive volume territory. Meanwhile, Champagne showed a notable rebound in October following a weak September-an encouraging sign heading into its peak season.

As we move deeper into the holiday months, the stakes are high. With moderate comparisons, unpredictable timing, and shifting segment dynamics, the next eight weeks will play a decisive role in shaping 2025's final performance.