Franconia's agriculture of the future: olives and rice instead of barley and sugar beet

Against the backdrop of climate change, agriculture is facing an unprecedented transformation. While Germany was hardly affected by massive crop failures for decades, the picture has changed drastically since 2015. Since then, heatwaves and dry spells have been responsible for yield losses in half of all cases.

Against this backdrop, a research team from Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg (JMU) has now analysed the future of regional agriculture under the scenario of unchecked climate change as part of the EU-funded BigData@Geo 2.0 project.

Franconia: Central Europe in miniature

The Franconia region serves as "Central Europe in miniature". Due to its heterogeneous topography - from low-lying river valleys to low mountain ranges above 1,000 metres - the region is representative of large parts of Central Europe. The results therefore have a signalling effect for the whole of Germany: what is being researched here today describes the challenges that agriculture could soon face nationwide.

An interdisciplinary team from the fields of climate research, computer science and remote sensing was responsible for the study. First author Dr Luzia Keupp is a research assistant in the climatology department of Professor Heiko Paeth. The team has published its findings in the journal Scientific Reports .

Shifting climate zones

To make this future tangible, the researchers used a method known as climate analogues. They identified regions in Europe where the climatic conditions that are predicted for Franconia by the end of the 21st century already prevail today. They not only compared 28 climate-relevant indicators, but also took into account soil characteristics such as clay and sand content as well as pH values in order to ensure that the locations are truly comparable.

The key result: "Our analyses show a massive shift in the climate zones," explains Luzia Keupp. "In future, the higher mountain regions of Franconia will experience a climate similar to the one we know today from the northern German lowlands. The lower valleys, on the other hand, will experience conditions that are typical of the Po Valley in northern Italy or Gascony in south-west France."

Change of variety: wheat stays, the olive comes

The study predicts what this means for agriculture in Franconia:

• Some less heat-loving crops will become less important. These primarily include barley, sugar beet and fodder crops such as silage maize and fodder oilseeds.
• Other products may hold their own or will gain in importance. This applies to rye, wheat, rapeseed and maize. Viticulture will also become significantly more important in almost all parts of Franconia.
• As the climate moves closer to the Mediterranean region, new crops that are currently considered "exotic" in Franconia could become attractive: These include peaches, olives, tropical fruits, almonds, hazelnuts and chestnuts. From a climatic point of view, the cultivation of rice would also be possible. Sorghum, a millet-like crop, could also gain in importance as a heat-resistant alternative.

However, it will not be possible to implement these findings one-to-one. "The necessary heat alone does not make Franconia a rice-growing region," say the researchers. While rice in the Po Valley is irrigated by abundant meltwater from the Alps, Franconia lacks this hydrological resource. Even with olives, there is a residual risk of extreme weather events: A single cold snap with temperatures below minus 8.3 degrees Celsius could destroy entire crops.

The scientists also see social and economic barriers. "The cultivation of new varieties requires new expertise, specialised technology and completely new logistics chains and markets," says Luzia Keupp. Accordingly, these changes require forward-looking decisions, as permanent crops such as fruit trees or vines in particular remain in the ground for decades and therefore represent the most capital-intensive investments a farm can make.

When the climate in Würzburg moves to the south of France

If climate change continues unchecked, the study predicts drastic changes for Franconia:

• Mediterranean climate: by the end of the 21st century, the climate in most parts of Franconia will be similar to that of today's regions in the northern Mediterranean, south-west France or northern Italy.
• Extended growing season: The growing season is expected to lengthen by around 70 to 80 days.
• Weather extremes: A summer warming of around 4 degrees Celsius is expected, accompanied by more heavy rainfall events, but also a significantly higher number of drought days.

Original publication

Undamped climate change poses the need for substantial shifts in cultivated crop types in Germany. Luzia Keupp, Andreas Hotho, Stefan Dech & Heiko Paeth. Scientific Reports, | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-42040-x

Contact

Dr Luzia Keupp, T +49 931 31-81684, [email protected]

Prof Dr Heiko Paeth, T +49 931 31-84688, [email protected]