Report: APEC Electricity Demand Seen Nearly Double by 2060 as Energy Transition Accelerates

Electrification, data-center expansion and shifts in transport are reshaping energy demand across APEC economies, with electricity consumption projected to rise by up to 96 percent by 2060, according to the ninth edition of the APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook, launched in Tokyo last week.

The report, updated every three years, projects electricity generation rising from 18,971 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2022 to 32,690 TWh under current policies, reflecting a structural move away from direct fossil fuel use toward electricity across transport, buildings and parts of industry.

"The Outlook supports member economies in navigating the evolving energy landscape by identifying key challenges and opportunities in the energy sector," said Dr Kazutomo Irie, Chairman and President of the Asia-Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC), noting that the publication has served as the center's flagship report since its establishment in 1996.

"The Outlook projects the impact of current energy trends and policies on each economy's fuel mix, energy goals and CO2 emissions. It delivers timely insights into the energy trilemma as economies strive to balance energy security, affordability and sustainability." he added.

APERC, headquartered in Tokyo, was established following a directive from APEC Leaders to deepen regional understanding of energy challenges and support evidence-based policymaking. Since then, the center has conducted comprehensive analyses to inform energy policy across APEC's 21 member economies. The launch in Tokyo was attended by APEC Executive Director Eduardo Pedrosa, APERC leadership and researchers, and Tokyo-based embassy officials of the APEC economies.

Transport electrification plays a central role in reshaping energy demand, according to the report. By 2060, electric vehicles account for 60 percent of the vehicle fleet under current policies and 96 percent if economies meet stated target, sharply reducing oil consumption while increasing demand for electricity.

In buildings, electricity demand continues to climb, driven largely by the rapid expansion of data centers and artificial intelligence workloads, even as efficiency gains slow growth in other forms of energy use.

On the supply side, renewables account for a growing share of electricity generation, rising from 26 percent in 2022 to 55 percent by 2060 under current policies and 64 percent after economies meet stated target.

Coal use continues to decline, with coal and coal-product supply falling 56 percent by 2060 under current policies and 74 percent if targets are met, while natural gas supply rises 58 percent under current policies, highlighting its continued role unless stronger emissions reductions are pursued.

The report finds that this transition comes with substantial costs. APERC estimates cumulative spending of USD 57 trillion in the power and hydrogen sectors between 2025 and 2060 in the current policies, rising to USD 91 trillion if economies pursue full emissions-reduction targets.

While reduced fossil fuel use generates USD 5.4 trillion in savings, these are outweighed by the USD 57-91 trillion in power-sector investment needed for renewable generation, grids, storage, hydrogen infrastructure and backup capacity.

"No economy can secure reliable, affordable and sustainable energy alone. Our energy systems are interconnected, our markets are intertwined, and the choices economies make today will shape energy security, affordability and sustainability across the region for decades to come," said Pedrosa.

"The Outlook provides a detailed roadmap of the long-term implications of the energy transition, from emissions and import reliance to grid resilience and investment needs, at a time when economies are making decisions with lasting consequences," he added.

The Outlook suggests that policy choices made over the next decade will have outsized effects on investment flows, energy prices and supply security across the region. As electricity demand rises faster than overall energy use, economies face narrowing windows to expand grids, deploy low-carbon technologies and manage the transition without increasing volatility or cost pressures.

Read the full report of APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook, 9th Edition:

Volume 1 and Volume 2

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