Middle East Geopolitics and Markets: Putting Iran Headlines in Context

When we think about geopolitical events in the Middle East, I always urge a little bit of caution when over extrapolating the event to the markets. When you look historically at the immediate impact of a geopolitical event in the Middle East, it tends to be relatively significant. So markets tend to be down, equity markets tend to be down, bond yields tend to be up, oil prices shoot up, there's a response on the gold side. That's a classic risk-off scenario.

But what we have seen is that, for most of these Middle Eastern geopolitical events, that risk-off scenario tends to be very, very brief, usually a day or two, maybe even less - such that markets tend to renormalize. And I think the reason they're renormalizing is a lot of the geopolitical tension in the Middle East has already been priced in to most markets. So you would expect that over a relatively short period of time, markets would equilibrate and go back to where they were.

For most of the cases that we have seen in the relatively recent past, that initial downside can be sharp, but it comes back to normal in a relatively short period of time.