We don’t need Ukraine in the European Union

A wind of war is enveloping Hungary; the greatest stake in the next elections is whether we will have a government that will be able to keep Hungary out of a war, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated on Tuesday in Balatonfüred.

At the latest stop of his tour of the country, the Prime Minister said "we sincerely hope that such a war will not occur, we sincerely hope that the Europeans will come to their senses, but at this point in time, every sober person must face up to the fact that we're living in times when there is a significant risk of war."

We have a government "which refuses to provide men, refuses to provide weapons and refuses to provide money for a war which we have nothing to do with, and which is most certainly not a patriotic war of defence," it is "a war of brothers" between two Slavic peoples, the Prime Minister said.

According to Mr Orbán, the war in the Middle East and the Ukrainian oil blockade are only seemingly foreign policy issues, "but in actual fact, they're more like crucial issues with a direct impact on our pockets as the government had to adopt an immediate intervention in order to prevent Hungarian fuel prices from skyrocketing" as fuel prices did in the Netherlands, Germany or Austria. The dividing line that "separated internal politics from the affairs of the outside world around us has ceased, it is no more," and the question is whether "we are able to preserve Hungary as an island of security and calm in a world which is not characterised by either security or calm," he said.

He added: three thousand new workers are being hired at Mercedes's plant in Kecskemét, while in recent years in Germany 130,000 workers have been laid off, in Poland as many as 140,000. "Everywhere around Hungary people are being laid off, Hungary is the only country where people are not being laid off, but hired, and rather than a surplus of workforce, there is a shortage of workforce," he observed.

He said it is a great achievement that Hungary "is able to preserve the notion of the workfare economy" where we do not support anyone who would otherwise be able to work, but is not prepared to. "This is how it is just and fair, this is how it should be, and we would like it to remain this way."

The Prime Minister takes the view that in all Western European countries surrounding us that are much richer than us, there are not only redundancies, but also austerity measures. Nowhere in Western Europe or the European Union has anyone, other than Hungary, introduced a fixed three per cent housing credit facility for young people, and neither do we see news reports, saying that while economic growth is around one per cent, the minimum wage is set to increase by 11 per cent. We likewise do not hear stories about any government in Europe doubling the tax benefit available in relation to children in these hard times, or about mothers with two or three children being granted tax exemption for life, while this is precisely what is happening in Hungary.

This is the situation "because they're giving their money to the Ukrainians," if they did not "as we don't," they would be better off, too, the Prime Minister pointed out.

Mr Orbán said there are four demands today vis-a-vis Hungary which "are partially supported by the Ukrainians and partially by the people in Brussels who are behind the Ukrainians." The first one is that Hungary should join the war effort at least to the extent that the Germans, the French or the Spanish have and "should state that the Ukrainian-Russian war is Hungary's war as well," that it is being waged in Hungary's interest as well.

By contrast, Hungary's position is that "this is not our war," it is a very bloody, very sad and very brutal war which "is a war of brothers between two Slavic peoples we have nothing to do with," the Prime Minister stressed.

In continuation, he said "the Ukrainians are not fighting for Hungary, they're not fighting for our security, we never asked them for this, and nor do we need it," but wherever we can, we help them. They are given jobs in Hungary, we have given the 30,000 to 40,000 Ukrainian families staying in Hungary the right to education in their mother tongue "which is otherwise being denied to our people, to the Hungarians in Ukraine." At the end of the day, "this is a patriotic, Christian country where we respect other nations and take into consideration, and even try to follow, the law of Christian assistance." We are giving them everything we can, "but we will not destroy ourselves for their sake, for the sake of a war we have nothing to do with," Mr Orbán underlined.

In continuation, he said this is a brutal war. At this point in time, the European Union is supporting this war with weapons and money, and they have even concluded agreements that during the period between 2026 and 2030 they will also send soldiers to Ukraine. "They are not just thinking about this, considering it, pondering this idea; the French have made a decision on this, they have concluded an agreement on this with the British, and the Germans have joined this pact."

Mr Orbán said the second demand is that we provide money, but we do not have enough ourselves. The European Union has given the Ukrainians approximately EUR 200 billion so far, they are in the process of providing a loan of EUR 90 billion, while a programme called 'Ukrainian welfare' worth USD 800 billion is also on the table, waiting to be approved, and there is a further weapons programme worth USD 700 billion which has likewise been pledged by the Europeans.

He recalled that when they had to decide on the package of EUR 90 billion, "as part of a long discussion characterised by a brutal atmosphere that extended well into the night" he eventually consented to the other EU Member States taking out this loan and giving it to Ukraine "if we don't have to take part in it." Eventually, the Slovaks and the Czechs, too, opted out of this. As the EU has no money, it will take out a loan of EUR 90 billion and will then give this money to the Ukrainians in the form of another loan. And the credit contract lays down that the Ukrainians will repay this when the Russians pay them reparations, the Prime Minister said, relating the details.

"This will evidently never happen," this EUR 90 billion "is gone," and so when the Ukrainians are unable to pay, this money will have to be repaid from the budget of the Member States of the EU, with the exception of Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, he laid down.

"If we have a government that gives the Hungarians' money away, we will find ourselves in a debt spiral," Mr Orbán warned.

He added: according to the draft budget of the EU for the period between 2028 and 2035, 20 to 25 per cent of the money paid in will go to the Ukrainians, while another ten per cent will be spent on the repayment of the loans taken out earlier. This is more than 30 per cent, "and then we haven't yet spent a single forint on the European economy, the Hungarian economy, the Polish economy or the French," he pointed out.

"If you give money to a warring party, this is the consequence," he laid down. In the Prime Minister's view, people in the West believe that they can help the Ukrainians on the frontline to such an extent that the Russians will be defeated there, "and the Russians will be forced to conclude a peace deal which is good for Ukraine and contains a clause to the effect that the Europeans will get their money back from the Russians."

This may prove to be the case, he said in continuation, "however, the probability of this happening is extremely low," and we need a government which "rather than engaging in such a risky gamble or adventure, keeps Hungary out of this madness and does not put a single penny into this war" - the policy which this government has stood for in Brussels so far.

As the Ukrainians' third demand, Mr Orbán said they want us to detach ourselves from Russian oil and gas, but now when there is a war in the Middle East and 20 to 25 per cent of the world's gas supply is stuck, "under such circumstances, surrendering any source is insane, absurd, foolish, a position that cannot be justified on the basis of common sense."

Hungary has continually vetoed the aspirations which "would have pushed us, too, into the situation" that we cannot buy oil and gas from Russia, and in the meantime, the situation has become even more complicated because the Americans, too, have introduced sanctions, he said.

He pointed out that in order to maintain cheap household energy bills in Hungary, the Hungarian prime minister and government of the day must conclude two personal agreements. One with the US president who grants Hungary exemption from the ban relating to Russian energy, while the other one is the Russian president, making sure that he sells us gas and oil. "Anyone who is unable to come to agreements with these two people stands no chance of maintaining the reduction of household energy bills."

Today, an average Hungarian households spends HUF 250,000 to 260,000 a year on household energy, while - in countries where there is no such scheme - the Polish pay HUF 850,000 and the Czechs a million forints, the Prime Minister listed.

Mr Orbán also spoke about the fact that in 2022 "we already found ourselves under a gas blockade, too." Zelenskyy "is responsible not only for the oil blockade, not even mentioning his vulgar style - he is not asking for, but demanding things, around here this is not customary - but he was also the one who shut down the pipeline transiting Ukraine through which we received gas from Russia." At the time, this had no consequence for the budgets of families because in the meantime, we had built a pipeline chain bypassing Ukraine from the South which enables us to bring Russian gas to Hungary via Turkey and the Balkans. He pointed out that had we not done this after the war in Crimea when it became evident that this might happen, "there would be grave problems in Hungary already now."

Hungary had two options when Zelenskyy introduced the oil blockade. One of them was that we accept the fact that they are blackmailing us and start bargaining, while the other one was to make a plan about how to repel this, he stressed. "We decided in favour of the latter" because the Ukrainians cannot consider whether to let our oil through, this is their obligation stemming from the agreement they concluded with the European Union. There is an association agreement between the European Union and Ukraine which lays down, verbatim, that Ukraine cannot jeopardise the energy supply of a single Member State of the European Union with Ukrainian government decisions, he stressed.

"Meaning that we stand on the foundations of the law, we have a right to bring this oil through," and so we will not accept that anyone should commit a breach to our detriment, and then they should say 'let's bargain.' "We're not stupid, we're not dull-witted, but Hungarians." Therefore, we devised a plan with which we will break the Ukrainian oil blockade, meaning that in the European Union during the period ahead "we will block every economic decision favouring Ukraine until they reopen the oil pipeline," the Prime Minister laid down.

In the Prime Minister's words, the EU will transgress its own rules, will try to deceive us and will find a solution of some kind, but we are prepared: if the Ukrainians collude with Brussels, we will break this oil blockade. The Ukrainians are not our enemies, and we don't mean them any harm, he clarified at the same time.

Mr Orbán recalled: every week, nine thousand people die or become disabled on the Russian and Ukrainian sides combined, that is 400,000 people a year, and the European Union is giving EUR 90 billion to prolong the fights for another two years. "The European Union is, in actual fact, financing the deaths and disabilities of 800,000 people, meaning that this is a brutal war," he stated.

The Prime Minister highlighted that no one wished Ukraine the suffering they were going through, "they, too, need a place under the Sun." Therefore, Hungary supports the idea that Ukraine should have a relationship with the European Union and also with us, one which is beneficial for all parties concerned. The Prime Minister laid down at the same time that we would never say yes to the aspiration of letting Ukraine into the European Union. He argued that in the case of a country at war, membership was out of the question, a Ukraine at war was a threat to the whole of the European Union. If we admitted them, that would destroy our agriculture and later other sectors, too, without which the Hungarian economy cannot exist.

Mr Orbán stressed: we can see how the Ukrainians are behaving now when they are only in the position of applicant, "and already now, they are taking liberties, they are taking the liberty of blackmailing, threatening us and introducing a blockade, thereby jeopardising the security and energy supply of Hungarian families."

We do not need such a partner in the European Union, we suggest that we conclude an agreement instead, the Prime Minister said, observing "no membership, zero rights, only a contract." He said we must agree in a contract about how we will cooperate, and we should honour this agreement as long as the Ukrainians honour it themselves. "But we mustn't let them in as one of us under any circumstances because that would have disastrous economic consequences for Hungary," the Prime Minister said.

At the forum, Mr Orbán also spoke about the protected prices of fuel products, stressing that only Hungarian car owners, businesses, truck drivers and the owners of agricultural machinery are eligible for these protected, capped prices, while foreigners are required to pay the prices fuel otherwise actually costs. Luckily, Hungary has one of Europe's smartest and most carefully considered stocking systems, and we have accumulated reserves which enable us to supply the entire Hungarian economy and members of the Hungarian public from our released reserves over an extended period, he stated. He added: in the meantime, they are continuously replenishing these reserves with more expensive oil, and while selling it more cheaply will have fiscal consequences, our supply will remain stable.

There will be enough diesel, there will be enough petrol, and we will be able to provide these for the Hungarian people for a long time, he stressed.

Regarding the upcoming parliamentary elections, Mr Orbán said the Hungarians need a patriotic government; the opponent is openly and admittedly pro-Ukraine and friendly with the Ukrainians.

As for the Balatonfüred constituency, he said this constituency is not doing well, in a keen election race, the situation is not the same as it had been in the past sixteen years, and if you are not working much harder than your opponents, the government party could lose this constituency, "the chances of which are high." "We are facing an election where we will need a hundred per cent in every constituency," the Prime Minister made it clear, adding that the tour of the country and the campaign will begin in earnest on the day after the Peace March, and "from then on, we must tour the whole country, and must do better than our opponents."

He observed: the sentence 'we usually win' will lead to trouble now, rather than meaning an advantage, victory can only achieved with more work, while a defeat would cost the whole countryside dearly.

At the forum, Mr Orbán said Fidesz has its 2022 voters, but some of them are not yet ready to take part in the elections at all. "Everyone always pays their taxes at the last minute, meaning that this is not much of a surprise," he argued, observing that they are either not interested in politics or do not know what to think, and "therefore, we must contact them and speak to them."