Where Degrees Meet Demand: Occupational Projections and Higher Education

Regional Matters

June 25, 2026

Individuals make decisions about career paths and related training or education by evaluating both current and future job prospects. Numerous factors - environmental, technological, or event-driven - disproportionately affect worker demand in certain industries or occupations. These are often difficult to predict and may cause temporary disruptions or structural changes in industries and occupations that in turn affect labor demand. Additionally, there are longer-term trends, such as the aging of the population, that may impact both the jobs in high demand, and, in some cases, the training and expertise workers will need to meet the requirements.

Policymakers and higher education institutions must balance two priorities: support students and workers to meet pressing employment needs and design programs and policies that incentivize investments in infrastructure and skills for long-term success. Using data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), we examine job projections across the Fifth District and find that roughly 44 percent of jobs (7.6 million) will likely require some postsecondary training in 2032, but the distribution of educational requirements varies across occupations and states.

A Crystal Ball? What We Can (and Can't) Learn From Employment Projections

The long-term Occupational Projections data from the BLS offer a window into the number of workers that employers will need to keep the economy moving. These projections rely on a collection of other BLS datasets as well as data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the S&P Global Market Intelligence.

These projections are based on industry structure and macroeconomic projections, but they also offer an analysis of ongoing and expected labor market trends. They do not attempt to anticipate unexpected events or rapid technological changes.

The occupational employment projections do not necessarily represent the number of people employed in a given occupation but rather the number of workers that employers will need to maintain production. In other words, it is a projection of demand more than employment.

Patterns at the state and local level often differ from national trends based on industry concentration and population characteristics. Therefore, each state labor market information office uses Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, or OEWS data, to generate short-term (two-year) and long-term occupational projections for their state. Moreover, some states produce additional estimates for economic and workforce development regions within their state. The most recent set of projections available for all Fifth District jurisdictions is 2022-2032.

In the 2022-2032 projections for all occupations, the economy is predicted to increase employment by about 4.7 million (+2.8%) while the 2024-2034 projections show an increase of 5.2 million (+3.1%). Although the newer national dataset shows higher expected employment than the 2022 vintage, directionally the distribution of jobs is trending consistently, so the use of 2022-2032 projections is still a reasonable barometer of existing trends.

Across all occupations, employers in the Fifth District are projected to need about 1.25 million more workers by 2032, or a 7.8 percent increase from 2022 employment levels with the largest gaps needing to be filled in the Carolinas and Maryland.

Projecting Occupational Growth by Education

There are many pathways to careers. For some occupations, a specific degree or set of training is required.

In other fields, work-based learning, like apprenticeship programs, and industry experience may be more valuable than a formal degree or certificate. Whether a degree is required or not, employers often look to a candidate's aptitude, durable skills, and personality to find the right fit for their organization.

The distribution of demand for jobs by education requirements is relatively consistent in the 2022 and 2023 labor market. Outside of the District of Columbia, the majority of jobs projected in the Fifth District typically require less than a bachelor's degree.

The long-term state projections for the Fifth District show a clear upward trend in demand for jobs in the health care, food service, and technology sectors by 2032. This includes roles that span multiple levels of educational attainment. In health care, for example, positions like home health and personal care aids, nursing assistants, registered nurses, and nurse practitioners are in demand; these roles range from requiring no formal credential to requiring a master's degree.

Much of the projected increased demand for jobs are in positions that require less than a four-year degree. But while certain sectors are growing, others are shrinking. For example, there is a general decline in employment in sales and office and administrative support services, which traditionally do not require a four-year degree. For secretaries and administrative roles, there is an estimated reduction in employment of 14,940 jobs by 2032.

Health care support roles, such as home health and personal care aids, medical assistants, phlebotomists, and licensed practical nurses, stand out as a top opportunity among those with sub-baccalaureate educational attainment. Given the breadth of health care positions anticipated in the Fifth District by 2032, this is a field that appears to offer notable mobility opportunities.

There is also growth projected for commercial drivers across the Fifth District. In North Carolina, South Carolina, and Maryland, this position shows the largest increase in demand from 2022-2032 for those who have a postsecondary nondegree credential.

The data also indicate rising demand for wellness services that require some sort of postsecondary credential such as massage therapists, cosmetologists, barbers, manicurists, and pedicurists.

Stockers and order fillers, which typically require a high school diploma, are projected to see 32,930 more job openings in the Fifth District by 2032 compared to 2022. South Carolina is leading the Fifth District in predicted occupational growth at 22 percent.

Finally, among jobs requiring no formal education credential, food service roles are projected to have the highest increase in employment. Specifically, occupations classified as restaurant cooks were predicted to grow between 19 percent in Virginia and 47.7 percent in the District of Columbia. The one exception is South Carolina, which shows larger demand for laborers and freight material movers, with a predicted 12,000 jobs in the next 10 years - a 19 percent growth rate over the 2022-2032 period.

Conclusion

Employment projections provide insight into shifting demand for certain industries and occupations. However, it is important to remember that projections cannot account for new technologies, changing environmental concerns, or unforeseen events that can drastically alter the labor market. Demand for jobs that require sub-baccalaureate attainment is not growing uniformly across the Fifth District, but they are still anticipated to make up the majority of jobs by 2032 - particularly with jobs in health care, transportation, and trades (mechanics, electricians, etc.). As the composition of in-demand jobs evolves, it is crucial that states and the nation continue to align their educational funding and policies to meet demand. As these changes take shape, we will monitor their effectiveness and how they align with new employment projections, which are anticipated for release in summer 2026.

Views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond or the Federal Reserve System.