Predicting Future Northeast Ocean Conditions: Forecast Debuts in 2026 State of the Ecosystem Reports

Fishermen, fisheries managers, and scientists have observed changes in our oceans that are impacting the location and growth of fish stocks. Until recently, there was no reliable way to predict these changes. This year, the 2026 Mid-Atlantic and New England State of the Ecosystem reports contain the first operational seasonal and decadal ocean forecasts for U.S. coastal fisheries regions. These ocean forecasts provide predictions of future marine ecosystem conditions that could impact the availability of commercial, recreational, and protected fisheries species. They can help resource managers make more informed decisions.

The Northeast Integrated Ecosystem Assessment team produces the State of the Ecosystem reports annually for the New England and Mid-Atlantic Fisheries Management Councils. They provide a synthesis of Northeast Shelf ecosystem information. They are part of a holistic approach to maintain healthy and productive fisheries by considering environmental and socioeconomic information in decision making. The reports:

• Contain current and long-term information about the Northeast Shelf ecosystems
• Document how well the ecosystems are currently meeting fishery management objectives
• Highlight potential risks to meeting those objectives.

However, resource managers have long sought forward-looking ocean forecasts that predict future ocean conditions to help them make more informed decisions.

"Due to limited resources, we have moved to more multi-year specifications for stocks, so the impacts of our decisions are now longer lasting. Given the increasingly dynamic nature of the ocean, and management's sometimes-limited ability to be as dynamic in response, delivery of ocean forecasts to the Council provides more tools at our disposal to make better decisions that span multiple years,"

said Megan Ware, member of the New England Fisheries Management Council.

NOAA scientists in the Northeast are now providing their Councils with predicted ocean temperatures in this year's" State of the Ecosystem reports using NOAA's Modular Ocean Model version 6 ocean forecasts, referred to as MOM6, developed by NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. The inclusion of the forecasts marks the agency's first application of an ocean forecast in an ecosystem-based fisheries management product.

Dr. Joseph Caracappa, research fisheries biologist at the Northeast Fisheries Science Center and one of the lead editors of the State of the Ecosystem reports, explains,

"By including ocean forecasts in our State of the Ecosystem reports, we are providing scientists and managers with information that allows them to consider future environmental impacts on marine resources and ultimately be more informed on decisions."

What do the ocean forecasts in the 2026 reports predict?

The 2026 State of the Ecosystem reports contain MOM6 forecasts that predict conditions over two time periods: seasonal (3 month forecasts that are updated 4 times per year) and decadal (annual forecasts over the next 10 years that are updated once a year).

The seasonal forecasts predicted cooler than average winter and spring (January-June) bottom temperatures in the Gulf of Maine and the Mid-Atlantic Bight in 2026 (depicted by the blue color in the maps below). This prediction was accurate, as early 2026 conditions in these areas were, and continue to be, cooler than average. As the year progresses, these areas are expected to return to historically near-average temperatures (yellow). Much of the Northeast U.S. shelf is predicted to experience above average bottom temperatures (red) by the fall (October-December). Much like weather forecasts, the uncertainty of these predictions increases as they extend farther into the future. Throughout the year, new iterations of the forecasts incorporate recent environmental conditions to produce more accurate, near-future predictions that can be delivered to and used by fishery managers.

Most recent seasonal forecasts for the Northeast U.S. shelf.

There were cooler-than-average conditions in 2024 and 2025 along the Northeast U.S. shelf. The decadal model predicts a return to average temperatures in the region over the next 10 years. Scientists were happy to see that the decadal model accurately predicted the region's recent cold spell during its retrospective forecast trials.

The cooler waters observed since 2024 are a reprieve from the anomalously high temperatures of the past decade. These ocean conditions are more suitable for bottom species like scallop, lobster, cod, and haddock. While this cold spell remains, scientists continue to monitor the ecosystems to measure their ability to bounce back from warm ocean temperatures. Variations in ocean temperatures can:

• Alter species migration and distribution patterns
• Effect metabolic rates and growth
• Influence predator-prey relationships, distribution, and movement outside of previously inhabited locations
• Affect overall ecosystem productivity

Making Strides Towards Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management

This year's delivery of the forecasts is a collaborative success and a major advancement in NOAA's efforts towards adopting ecosystem-based fisheries management. Dr. Andrew C. Ross, research scientist at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory explained,

"These forecasts are the first fruits from a years-long effort by many NOAA scientists in NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research and NOAA Fisheries working together. We hope to continue improving and applying the forecasts in the Northwest Atlantic and are working to develop similar forecasts for all of the U.S. coastline including the West Coast, Alaska and Arctic, and Pacific Islands regions."

While the delivery of the ocean forecasts is a highlight of this year's reports, it is just a fraction of the whole report. These reports have been well-received by the fisheries management councils for 10 years and are considered in management decisions. Ware said,

"The New England Council is currently in the process of integrating aspects of the State of the Ecosystem report into our updated risk policy, so we will be directly integrating information from the report into our management decisions. To me, that speaks to the value and weight this Council puts on the information provided in that report."

To learn more about the 2026 State of the Ecosystem reports and the MOM6 bottom temperature forecasts, you can tune in to "State of the Ecosystem - 2026 Overview ", a NOAA Library seminar on Tuesday, June 30 at 1pm.