Report: EPA Rules a `Backstop’ for Power Emissions

WASHINGTON, DC - The Environmental Protection Agency's carbon pollution standards for power plants are a critical backstop to ensure that the power sector achieves emissions reductions possible from the cost-effective growth in clean energy, a new analysis published in the journal Science found.

The paper, Impacts of EPA's Finalized Power Plant Greenhouse Gas Standards, pulls together analyses from nine different models, including those from the Electric Power Research Institute, federal government labs, universities, the private sector, and NRDC (Natural Resources Defense Council).

The EPA's standards, finalized last year, will deliver significantly more emissions reductions by 2040 than what EPA itself had predicted - and at "relatively small costs" to industry even "before accounting for climate, public health, and other societal benefits," the paper concludes.

These new results are notable because they take into account the dramatic expected growth in electricity demand from new factories, data centers and electric vehicles.

"These results demonstrate that the EPA standards are a winner all around. They ensure the industry cuts its pollution, saving lives and boosting clean energy," said Amanda Levin, director of policy analysis at NRDC and a co-author of the new study in Science . "Given the risks to the electric grid from climate-fueled extreme weather, these standards make sense for the power industry as well."

Among the most significant findings is that the rules ensure coal use will continue to decline - as it has since 2011. And the EPA standards narrow the range of potential carbon emissions over the next two decades, ensuring the reductions possible because of the improved economics of clean energy. The models used in this paper show the rules cut carbon dioxide emissions by an additional 68-390 million tons annually in 2040, greater than EPA's own assessment, which predicted a 54 Mt-CO2 reduction.

The EPA rules "can be viewed as backstops against higher emissions outcomes under futures with improved coal plant economics, which could occur with higher demand, slower renewables deployment from interconnection and permitting delays, or higher natural gas prices," the paper concludes.

NRDC (Natural Resources Defense Council) is an international nonprofit environmental organization with more than 3 million members and online activists. Established in 1970, NRDC uses science, policy, law and people power to confront the climate crisis, protect public health and safeguard nature. NRDC has offices in New York City, Washington, D.C., Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago, Beijing and Delhi (an office of NRDC India Pvt. Ltd).