U.S. House of Representatives Committee on the Budget

03/03/2026 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 03/03/2026 13:25

Chairman Arrington Statement on CBO Long-Term Budget Outlook

March 03, 2026

Chairman Arrington Statement on CBO Long-Term Budget Outlook

WASHINGTON, D.C. - Last week, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its updated long-term budget outlook detailing the nation's fiscal health. The report shows the debt rising to unprecedented levels, growing faster than the economy, and placing increasing pressure on future generations of Americans.

House Budget Chairman Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) released the following statement:

"This CBO report confirms what we already know: America's fiscal trajectory is unsustainable. Our long-term budget outlook goes from bad to far worse, with gross federal debt projected to reach $182 trillion by 2056-that's roughly $2 million per American family. I have warned time and time again that runaway mandatory spending and our crushing national debt represent the single greatest danger to our nation's prosperity and our children's future. This additional alarming report underscores that we must continue to rein in runaway spending and reignite economic growth.

Republicans have taken meaningful steps to restore fiscal discipline. Before House Republicans took back control in 2023, discretionary spending was growing by roughly 5% per year with no end in sight. We have slowed discretionary spending over the last few years by 85%. Last year, Republicans enacted permanent tax relief, unleashed domestic energy production, and significantly reduced federal spending. As a result, interest rates and inflation are down, real wages and take-home pay are up, and we've witnessed an economic and growth surge of 4.4% in the third quarter of last year. In fact, with strong economic growth, constrained spending, and record trade-related revenue, the deficit is down from 6.3% to 5.8%.

But lasting solutions will require leadership from both parties. The structural imbalance in our federal budget-driven primarily by autopilot spending in our largest entitlement programs-cannot be ignored any longer. That is why the House Budget Committee will continue to pursue a bipartisan debt commission. While not a silver bullet, a commission can provide a serious, solutions-oriented, and depoliticized forum to level with the American people about the drivers of our debt and forge consensus around reforms to put our nation on a sustainable path."

BACKGROUND

Debt and Deficits:

  • Based on CBO projections, gross federal debt will reach $182 trillion by 2056, equivalent to roughly $2 million per American family of four-seven times the current debt burden of $288,000 per household. Adjusted for inflation, debt per family of four is projected to be roughly $1 million, which is five times current median household net worth ($192,900).

  • The report shows the gross federal debt rising from 123 percent of GDP in 2025 to 190 percent of GDP in 2056, by far the highest level in American history.

  • Gross federal debt has averaged 70 percent of GDP over the past fifty years.

  • CBO projects the federal deficit to exceed 5 percent of GDP every year between 2020 and 2056. In American history, there have never been more than five successive years of deficits this high (World War II, 1942-46).

Spending:

  • Federal spending is projected to increase from its 50-year average of 21.2 percent of GDP to 27.9 percent of GDP by 2056.

  • Mandatory spending grows from 75 percent of the federal budget today, to 80 percent in 2036, to 83 percent in 2056.

Net Interest Spending:

  • Interest spending on the national debt is projected to grow from 3.3 percent of GDP in 2026 to 6.9 percent by 2056.

  • Interest payments on the national debt will continue to exceed all defense spending and will surpass total discretionary spending by 2038.

  • Interest spending will roughly double as a percentage of federal revenue, increasing from 19 percent of revenues this year to 37 percent of all tax revenues by 2056.

Revenues:

  • Over the next three decades, CBO projects revenue to average 18.1 percent of GDP, higher than the 50-year average (17.3 percent).

Economic Growth:

  • Over the next 30 years, CBO projects economic growth will average only 1.7 percent a year. In American history, economic growth has never been this low for such an extended period. U.S. economic growth has averaged 3.1 percent since World War II.

Demographics:

  • CBO projects the slowest population growth in American history through 2056, just 1.5 percent per decade-a fifth of the growth of the lowest decade in history (the 2010s).

  • By 2030, deaths will exceed births in the United States.

U.S. House of Representatives Committee on the Budget published this content on March 03, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed via Public Technologies (PUBT), unedited and unaltered, on March 03, 2026 at 19:25 UTC. If you believe the information included in the content is inaccurate or outdated and requires editing or removal, please contact us at [email protected]