Virginians overwhelmingly concerned about cost of living

Today, the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University released the results of its most recent Commonwealth Poll, conducted between Dec. 18, 2024, and Jan. 15, 2025.

Politicians across the commonwealth are already preparing for the 2025 election season. With the governor's mansion at stake, Democratic candidate and Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger (44%) leads Republican candidate and Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (34%), with 17% of those polled still undecided. This is outside the poll's margin of error (+/- 4.75 percentage points). Among Republicans, 75% support Earle-Sears, and among Democrats, 85% support Spanberger. Regarding independent voters, Earle-Sears is preferred (21%) over Spanberger (15%).

Douglas Wilder, the 66th governor of Virginia, said, "The 10% lead of Spanberger to Earle-Sears (44% to 34%) should cause Earle-Sears to be concerned especially given 25% of Republicans do not show support for her candidacy. Spanberger's lead, however, could be significantly impacted should Republicans close ranks around Earle-Sears' candidacy." He continued, "This is likewise true with independents since they prefer Earle-Sears to Spanberger (21% to 15%)."

Even though the next U.S. Senate election in Virginia is not until 2026, there is speculation that Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin might pursue the seat of incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Warner. Respondents were asked whom they would support if the Senate race were held today, and 45% said they would support Warner, while 38% would support Youngkin. A vast majority of Democrats (88%) stated they would vote for Warner, and most Republicans (82%) said they would support Youngkin. Independents again were more supportive of the Republican candidate, favoring Youngkin (37%) over Warner (16%).

Wilder said, "In the proposed race between Governor Youngkin and Senator Warner for the U.S. Senate seat, Sen. Warner experiences incumbent support by a majority of voters (45% to 38%)." He continued, "However, the independents showed interesting results in their significant support for Governor Youngkin (37% to 16%) to incumbent Senator Mark Warner."

Approval of Gov. Glenn Youngkin

Respondents were asked whether they approve or disapprove of Youngkin's handling of his job as governor of Virginia. Just over half (51%) of Virginians approve of his performance, and 38% disapprove, reflecting similar approval ratings in the Wilder School's summer 2024 Commonwealth Poll. Youngkin's approval ratings for this most recent poll were heavily partisan, with just 23% of Democrats approving of Youngkin's handling of his role while 83% of Republicans and 57% of independents approve.

Approval of the General Assembly

Virginians were also asked whether they approve or disapprove of how the General Assembly is handling its duties, and answers were fairly evenly split - with 38% approving overall and 39% disapproving. This was similar regardless of party affiliation, with 41% of Democrats, 37% of Republicans and 31% of independents approving of the General Assembly's performance.

Top issues facing Virginia

Respondents were asked what they consider the top issues currently facing the commonwealth. Almost 6 in 10 voters (59%) said the economy and cost of living were together the No. 1 issue, an increase of 20 percentage points from the Wilder School's fall 2024 Commonwealth Poll. The economy and cost of living were rated similarly among Republicans, Democrats and independents, at 62%, 55% and 59% respectively. The second-ranked issue cited as the most pressing by respondents was K-12 education, with 14% listing it as their top issue. The remaining items in order of importance were crime/public safety (9%), immigration (7%), and higher education (2%).

Wilder commented, "The people clearly show a high interest in the economy and cost of living, K-12 education, crime and public safety, and immigration."

The Commonwealth Poll also measured how informed voters are regarding the top issues facing Virginia. Depending on what issue respondents chose as the most important, they were asked a series of three follow-up questions specific to that issue. These three questions were how informed they are about Governor Younkin's handling of the issue, how informed they are about the General Assembly's handling of the issue, and whether they agree or disagree that Governor Younkin and the General Assembly's approach to the issue are aligned.

Economy and cost of living

Of respondents who selected the economy and cost of living as the top issue facing the commonwealth, over half (55%) said they were familiar with Governor Youngkin's handling of the issue, and 43% were familiar with the General Assembly's handling. When asked if they agree or disagree that Governor Youngkin's approach and the General Assembly's approach are aligned, about 4 in 10 respondents (41%) disagreed, while 27% agreed.

Crime and public safety

Nationally, crime rates are going down. However, many cities are still experiencing increased violence. Given that, respondents who selected crime and public safety as the most important issue facing Virginia were asked how informed they are about Governor Youngkin's and the General Assembly's handling of the issue. Around half (49%) said they were informed regarding Governor Youngkin's handling, while fewer (39%) were informed about the General Assembly's handling. Only 30% of respondents agreed that Governor Youngkin's and the General Assembly's approach to crime and public safety are aligned.

Higher education

Overall, only 2% of respondents selected higher education as the most important issue facing the commonwealth. Of those respondents, over half (55%) said they were informed about Governor Youngkin's handling, while less than a quarter (24%) were informed about the General Assembly's handling of the issue of providing quality and affordable higher education. Regarding approaches, 57% agreed that Governor Youngkin and the General Assembly are aligned, while 21% disagreed.

K-12 education

Student learning loss has been highlighted since 2020 and the pandemic's arrival. On the issue of providing quality K-12 education in Virginia, 60% of respondents who selected it as the most important issue facing the state said they were informed about Governor Youngkin's handling of K-12 education, with 48% informed about the General Assembly's handling. Just 13% agreed that Governor Youngkin's and the General Assembly's approaches are aligned, while almost half (48%) disagreed.

Immigration

The U.S. has seen record levels of illegal border crossings in recent years. Among respondents, immigration was tied for the fourth most selected option, with 7% choosing it as the top issue facing Virginia. Of those respondents, 89% said they were informed about Governor Youngkin's handling of the issue, while 36% were informed about the General Assembly's handling. Around a third of respondents (33%) agreed that Governor Youngkin's and the General Assembly's approaches to immigration are aligned, while 36% disagreed.

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