European road freight rates Q4 2025: Contract rates up, spot rates steady

The Upply x Ti x IRU Q4 2025 European road freight rates index shows divergence between contract and spot markets. Contract rates climbed to 136.9, a solid 2.6-point increase quarter on quarter (q-o-q), and a 3.1-point rise year on year (y-o-y). Meanwhile, spot rates reached 135.1, advancing modestly by 0.3 points from the previous quarter, but declining 3.3 points compared to the same period last year.

• EU retail trade volume rose by 2.3% y-o-y in November 2025.
• New truck registrations across the EU fell by 6.2% in 2025, according to ACEA, indicating potential capacity constraints.

• According to IRU's driver shortage survey, there were 444,000 vacant truck driver positions in Europe in 2025.

• Fuel prices rose slightly in Q4 2025, with the average European diesel price increasing by 0.66% q-o-q.
• Tolling is becoming a larger component of trucks' total cost of ownership. In Austria and Hungary, toll rates per kilometre now exceed fuel costs.
• The outlook for rates across Europe in 2026 is modest upwards pressure, driven by a moderate recovery in European demand.
• The Road Freight Sentiment Index for Q4 stands at 10.7, down by 2.0 points from Q3, indicating that bullish expectations for European road freight rates moderated slightly towards the end of the year.

Both contract and spot rates continued to rise in Q4 2025. In November 2025, retail trade volumes jumped 2.3% y-o-y across both the eurozone and the EU, according to Eurostat, following a revised 1.9% growth in October. This sustained consumer demand helps explain the uptick in contract rates, as businesses are expecting stronger demand in the upcoming months, and are locking in contracts.

Ti Head of Commercial Development Michael Clover said, "The sharp uptick in contract rates at the end of 2025 was driven by an expectation that demand will recover in 2026, causing many shippers to seek to lock in cheaper freight rates. We've seen contract rates pick up while spot rates remained stable, even during peak season, another sign that Q4 demand was quite soft despite better expectations for 2026. Given the geopolitical turbulence 2026 has started with, it will be interesting to see if the 2026 growth expectations from Q4 can be sustained."

Operating costs also added slight upwards pressure on contract rates. The cost of running a 40-tonne long-haul truck increased in Q4 2025, according to Comité National Routier data. Diesel rose 0.66% q-o-q. Driver costs increased 1.28%, up from 1.22% the previous quarter, though they're still below 2024 levels. Finance and insurance costs rose the most (4.23%). Meanwhile, new truck registrations across the EU grew 6% in Q3 2025, per ACEA, a sign that capacity is slowly increasing.

IRU Senior Director for Strategy and Development Vincent Erard said, "Last year was full of uncertainty for transport operators, as the global economy and international trade experienced significant turmoil. Despite steady road freight volumes in the EU and relatively positive industry output, operators must navigate unfamiliar market conditions while adapting to disruptive regulations, including new tolling schemes and potential fossil fuel tax increases. These uncertainties have long-term implications, such as delayed investments in new equipment, which could jeopardise future capacity. We must change how we see transport. It's not a commodity; it's a resource to nurture for a more sustainable future. To achieve this, we need to support operators with the right enabling conditions."

Market outlook

Looking ahead, inflation should ease to just under 2% in 2026, which is good news for purchasing power. A stronger euro and cheaper energy will help stimulate consumption, therefore putting upwards pressure on rates, though real wage growth will decelerate compared to 2025. Competitive pressure from Chinese imports might put more upwards pressure on port routes, inching rates upwards.

Southern EU countries should continue outperforming in 2026, though not as dramatically as in 2025. Slowdown is already taking place in Spain and Italy, which could translate to softer spot rate increases in those markets. Germany's economic growth is set for a considerable rebound, while France's economy is set to grow 0.9% in 2026, according to Eurostat. EU growth is expected to reach 1.4% in the upcoming year, according to the European Commission's autumn forecast, thus there could be moderate rate growth as demand recovers.

The Ti x Upply x IRU European Road Freight Sentiment Index declined by 2.0 index points to 10.7 in Q4 2025, indicating that bullish expectations for European road freight rates moderated slightly towards the end of the year, though the overall sentiment is still leaning towards an increase in rates.

Despite the q-o-q decline in the sentiment index, the majority of respondents continued to expect higher rates: "slight increase" remained the most common response, accounting for 38.2% of all answers, while expectations of a "substantial increase" rose to 11.2%. Flat rate expectations increased to 36%, suggesting limited growth in the first quarter of 2026.

Upply Chief Executive Officer Thomas Larrieu said, "Our data highlights a clear disconnect between contract and spot markets at the end of 2025. Contract rates continue to move higher, supported by forward-looking purchasing and tightening on specific key corridors, while spot pricing remains constrained as short-term demand remains limited and household caution persists. Volumes are rebounding on several major lanes, but not consistently enough to lift the spot market more broadly. Overall, the recovery remains uneven across Europe, with momentum likely to emerge first on selected corridors."