DealMakersQ3 2026⟶

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Return to Normal? Q3 M&A Slows but YTD Reflects Pre-Covid Activity

M&A activity in Q3 2026 dropped dramatically on almost all measures versus both Q2 2026 and year over year. Notably, though, year-to-date activity has roughly matched or exceeded the activity in all recent years other than the outliers of 2021 and 2025. The decline is attributable to a steep drop-off in megadeals, which drove M&A activity last year and in the first two quarters of this year.

Global activity. Globally,[i] aggregate deal value in Q3 2026 was down 20% from Q2 ($1.23 trillion vs. $984 billion) and down 2% year over year. But year-to-date aggregate deal value ($4.38 trillion) remained significantly higher than full-year totals in all recent years other than 2021 and 2025.

Global deal count in Q3 2026 reached 1,315 deals, a 7% increase from the prior quarter and 5% rise year over year, and on an annualized basis exceeds deal count in every recent year other than 2021 - reflecting materially lower deal values in 2026.

US activity. For US deals,[ii] aggregate deal value in Q3 fell 63% from the Q2 ($156.7 billion vs. $57.9 billion) and 45% year over year. However, year-to-date 2026 aggregate deal value was still higher than full-year numbers for 2023 and 2024 ($796.8 billion, $725.5 billion and $735.6 billion, respectively). 2026 aggregate deal value was roughly in line with 2022, but far below the boom years of 2021 and 2025, both of which were well over $1 trillion.

In Q3, US deal count was 93, similar to the prior quarter and year over year, reflecting lower deal values. On an annualized basis, year-to-date deal count reached 268 transactions, more than every recent year other than 2021 and 2025.

Megadeals. Globally, aggregate deal value for megadeals[iii] in Q3 dropped 68% from the prior quarter ($230.4 billion vs. $73.7 billion), and fell 41% year over year. Global count for megadeals in Q3 2026 (13) was down 84% from the prior quarter, and down 24% year over year. However, year-to-date global megadeal count (62) is already higher than the full-year numbers in any other year between 2021 and 2025, which ranged from 28 to 61.

For US deals, aggregate deal value for megadeals in Q3 fell 90% from the prior quarter ($29.2 billion vs. $2.9 billion) and 82% year over year. Additionally, there were just two US megadeals, down from 10 in the prior quarter and five in Q3 2025. Aggregate year-to-date value for megadeals exceeds every year other than 2025 ($418.2 billion vs. $571.5 billion), and the megadeal count year to date (18) is already higher than the full-year numbers in any year other than last year (22).

Going forward. A favorable antitrust environment, stock market highs and strong corporate confidence support optimism for robust M&A activity ahead. Expected headwinds include high oil prices, continued inflation, interest rate hike expectations, shifting tariff policies, domestic and geopolitical tensions, and valuation gaps tied to AI uncertainty.

Top Five Deals Announced

Reflect strong deal activity in technology, AI, logistics and aerospace.

1. Prologis / SEGRO - $19B

Prologis agreed to acquire London-listed SEGRO in a share and cash transaction, combining two of the world's premier logistics real estate platforms in one of the quarter's most transformative cross-border deals.

2. Aon / USI Insurance Services - $17B

Aon struck a landmark deal to acquire USI Insurance Services from KKR, set to become the largest completed insurance brokerage transaction in history.

3. Uber Technologies / Delivery Hero - $14.8B

Uber launched a voluntary public takeover offer for Berlin-based Delivery Hero, a high-profile move to consolidate its dominance in global food delivery and quick commerce.

4. Nvidia Corp / Hugging Face - $12.9B

Nvidia agreed to acquire Hugging Face, a headline-making transaction that underscores the intensifying race to control critical AI infrastructure and developer ecosystems.

5. GE Aerospace / Consolidated Precision Products - $11.75B

GE Aerospace will acquire Consolidated Precision Products, deepening its vertical integration across the jet engine supply chain and strengthening its position in aerospace manufacturing.

Trends: What's Driving Deals?

Sports as an Asset Class

"We're seeing the development of sports as an asset class. As demand continues to grow, sophisticated investors are looking for ways to differentiate themselves beyond team ownership and are finding creative avenues to diversify their investments." - Randi Lally, Partner, M&A and Private Equity

"Leagues are continuing to open the door to institutional capital, crafting frameworks that balance private investment with long-term stability. In addition to traditional direct investments into teams and leagues, our clients are deploying capital into areas like media rights and stadium infrastructure, building experiences where fan engagement drives the financial return." - Stephen Amdur, Partner, M&A and Private Equity

Strategics Driving Financial Services M&A

"We're seeing increased activity from strategic buyers in financial services M&A. Capital is being deployed selectively, with buyers focused on targets that can add differentiated products, specialized capabilities and talent. These transactions can accelerate growth by allowing buyers to leverage their existing scale and distribution while expanding the products and expertise they offer clients." - Nathan Pusey, Partner, M&A and Private Equity

Outlook: What Should Dealmakers Expect?

Favorable Regulatory Environment for Dealmaking

"The federal government is more open to dealmaking than it's been in a generation. But 'open' doesn't necessarily mean 'easy' - state AGs are stepping up, and federal enforcers are still pursuing merger remedies and suing to block deals in some cases. The deals getting done involve thoughtful planning from day one." - Kathy O'Neill, Partner, Antitrust and Competition | Antitrust Litigation

Comeback of M&A and IPO Markets Will Not Deter CVs

"A large number of CV transactions have delivered strong DPI for investors. Preferred equity and other hybrid structured solutions have grown alongside the CV market, offering sponsors an alternative route to providing LP liquidity without a complete sale of portfolio assets. It is clear these transactions make sense for sponsors and investors alike, with little likelihood that they will fall away as M&A and IPO markets recover as expected."
- Rhett McPhie, Partner, M&A and Private Equity

Updates: What Have We Been Up To?

Our team advised on several headline transactions, including:

• Foursquare To Be Acquired by Infillion
• Spencer Spirit Holdings To Acquire Hot Topic
• F/m Investments To Be Acquired by T. Rowe Price Group
• Telegraph Media Group Acquired by Axel Springer
• First Hawaiian To Acquire TriCo Bancshares

was featured in various publications:

• PEI's "Private Capital's Evolving Sports Play" with partners Stephen Amdur and Randi Lally
• Law360 Del. Dispatch: More Earnout Guidance From Chancery

and was recognized in:

Legal 500 UK 2027, with several practice area rankings including for Corporate and Commercial: Private equity: transactions - high-value deals (£500m+) with partners Christian Iwasko, Rhett McPhie, James Renahan and Michelle Tong listed as recommended lawyers in this area.

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