🚨PA 10 RATINGS CHANGE🚨: Cook Political Report Moves PA 10 In Favor of Janelle Stelson

Today, the non-partisan election forecaster Cook Political Report shifted the "neck-and-neck" race for Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District in Janelle Stelson's favor, from "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up."

According to Cook, "it's become increasingly clear that the fundraising differential" - including Stelson outraising Perry "by a massive $2.85 million to $900,000 in the most recent fundraising quarter," and "spending $3.8 million to date on TV, digital and radio ads" - is "taking a serious toll on the congressman."

And by highlighting Perry's "co-sponsorship of the Life at Conception Act, support for social security cuts and his iconoclastic votes against bipartisan bills that provide protective gear for firefighters and help combat human trafficking" on the airwaves, Stelson is "building a broader anti-Perry coalition of independents, including some Trump voters."

DCCC Spokesperson Aidan Johnson:
"The ground is quickly shifting below Scott Perry's feet. After spending years listening to voters and reporting on the issues that matter most, Janelle Stelson is ready to send Perry packing and finally give families across Central Pennsylvania the representation they deserve."

Cook Political Report: House Rating Change: Scott Perry's Race Moves to Toss Up
Evin Covey | October 18, 2024

• Perry is in a much different predicament this cycle, after Democrats nominated veteran Harrisburg news anchor Janelle Stelson, a former registered Republican who outraised the incumbent by a massive $2.85 million to $900,000 in the most recent fundraising quarter.

• It's become increasingly clear that the fundraising differential is taking a serious toll on the congressman… Public and private polling show Perry underperforming Trump. The congressional race now looks neck-and-neck - and while the political environment should still favor Perry, his unique vulnerabilities, coupled with Democrats' spending advantage, moves this race from Lean Republican to Toss Up.

• Perry, a former Freedom Caucus chair and fiscal hawk, has long been a thorn in the side of House Republican leadership, often breaking with his party on federal spending. And following the 2020 election, he worked with then-President Trump and his allies to sow doubt about the validity of the election results and urged the president to promote Jeffrey Clark to attorney general. A year later, the FBI seized Perry's cell phone as part of Special Counsel Jack Smith's criminal investigation into Trump.

• Stelson has spent $3.8 million to date on TV, digital and radio ads. Her ads - many of which are direct-to-camera, leaning on her strengths as a former news anchor - hit Perry on multiple fronts, including his co-sponsorship of the Life at Conception Act, support for social security cuts and his iconoclastic votes against bipartisan bills that provide protective gear for firefighters and help combat human trafficking. House Majority PAC and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee have also poured millions of dollars into this race, reinforcing these attacks.

• Even though Stelson cited Perry's actions in the aftermath of the 2020 election as a key motivation for running, it's notable that her attacks have leaned into Perry's votes on more bread-and-butter issues rather than January 6 to cast him as an extremist - a clear sign Democrats see Stelson's best path as building a broader anti-Perry coalition of independents, including some Trump voters.

• Perry, meanwhile, has spent a little under $1 million dollars on the airwaves.

• Only recently has Perry started getting backup from Republican party leadership. Last weekend, Speaker Mike Johnson hosted a fundraiser for the congressman, and the Johnson-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund started spending here this week… Democrats are still on track to outspend Republicans by about $2 million, according to AdImpact.

• Stelson has also benefited from a positive media narrative that's buoyed her fundraising - particularly after a nonpartisan survey from Susquehanna Polling & Research showed her leading Perry, 48%-39%… Another data point underscoring Stelson's ability to run ahead of Harris.