FAO Food Price Index declines in January for fifth consecutive month

Rome - The measure of world food commodity prices declined in January for the fifth consecutive month, led by lower international quotations for dairy, sugar and meat products, according to the benchmark report released Friday by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a basket of globally-traded food commodities, averaged 123.9 points in January, down 0.4 percent from the previous month and 0.6 percent from its level a year earlier.

The FAO Cereal Price Index increased slightly by 0.2 percent from December, despite marginal declines of world wheat and maize prices. Ample wheat stocks offset weather-related concerns affecting dormant crops in the Russian Federation and the United States of America, while comfortable global maize supplies offset adverse weather conditions in Argentina and Brazil and strong ethanol demand in the United States. By contrast, the FAO All-Rice Price Index rose by 1.8 percent from December, reflecting firmer demand for fragrant rice varieties.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index increased by 2.1 percent in January. World palm oil prices rose amid seasonal production slowdowns in Southeast Asia and firm global import demand, while world soy oil prices rebounded on tightening export availabilities in South America and expectations of robust biofuel demand in the United States. Global sunflower oil prices also increased, driven by supply tightness in the Black Sea region. By contrast, international quotations for rapeseed oil edged lower reflecting ample availability in the European Union in the wake of large recent imports.

The FAO Meat Price Index declined by 0.4 percent from December, driven by lower pig meat quotations amid ample global supplies and subdued international demand. Global poultry meat quotations rose, mainly reflecting higher prices in Brazil underpinned by strong international demand, while prices for ovine and bovine meats were broadly stable, with the latter buoyed by increased shipments from Brazil to China, which offset the rapid exhaustion of the United States' tariff-free quota.

The FAO Dairy Price Index fell by 5.0 percent from December, driven largely by lower prices for cheese and butter amid ample availabilities. Meanwhile, world skim milk powder prices firmed, supported by renewed import demand from the Near East, North Africa and parts of Asia.

The FAO Sugar Price Index declined by 1.0 percent in January, reflecting expectations of increased supplies in the current season, underpinned by a significant production rebound in India, favourable prospects in Thailand, and an overall positive production outlook in Brazil.

More details are available here.

Global cereal stocks-to-use ratio on course for highest level since 2001

FAO also released its latest forecast for global cereal production in 2025, projecting total output at 3 023 million tonnes, with record harvests for wheat, coarse grains and rice. The upward revision reflects higher-than-previously-anticipated wheat yields in Argentina, Canada and the European Union, alongside expectations of expanded maize plantings and higher yields in China and the United States of America. Global rice output is also forecast to rise, with gains led by India, Bangladesh, Brazil, China and Indonesia.

The new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief also assesses 2026 crop prospects across the northern hemisphere. Winter wheat plantings in India are forecast to reach a record level due to high domestic prices and favourable weather conditions, while plantings in the United States will likely decline due to low prices and drier-than-normal conditions in key producing areas. In the southern hemisphere, coarse grain harvesting will begin in the second quarter of 2026, with favourable conditions in Argentina, Brazil and South Africa.

World cereal utilization in 2025/26 is now forecast to increase by 2.2 percent from the previous year. Based on the updated supply and demand forecasts, global cereal stocks are predicted to expand by 7.8 percent to a record high, with inventories of all major cereals increasing, including rice. The global cereal stocks-to-use ratio is anticipated to rise to 31.8 percent, its highest level since 2001.

World trade in cereals during the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) is forecast to grow by 3.6 percent from the preceding 12 months.

More details are available here.

The Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), hosted by FAO, also published its monthly Market Monitor on Friday. In addition to the regular market updates, the report examines the relative stability of international markets for the major food crops, noting the resilience and flexibility demonstrated in recent periods. However, it cautions that this largely reflects a favourable confluence of ample harvests, well-functioning supply chains, and adequate fertilizer availability, and stresses that it would be misguided to infer that global food commodity markets are now structurally less vulnerable to shocks.